Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 21–29 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.6% | 28.4–30.9% | 28.0–31.2% | 27.7–31.6% | 27.2–32.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 20.6% | 19.5–21.7% | 19.2–22.0% | 18.9–22.3% | 18.4–22.9% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.0% | 17.0–19.1% | 16.7–19.4% | 16.5–19.7% | 16.0–20.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1–8.6% | 6.9–8.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.4–9.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8–8.3% | 6.6–8.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.8–6.1% | 4.7–6.3% | 4.5–6.4% | 4.3–6.8% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1–5.2% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 105 | 100–110 | 99–111 | 98–112 | 96–115 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 73 | 69–77 | 67–78 | 67–79 | 65–81 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 63 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–70 | 56–72 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 28 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 27 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 16 | 14–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 96% | |
| 100 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 101 | 7% | 89% | |
| 102 | 9% | 82% | |
| 103 | 11% | 73% | |
| 104 | 10% | 63% | |
| 105 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 106 | 12% | 44% | |
| 107 | 8% | 31% | |
| 108 | 7% | 23% | |
| 109 | 6% | 16% | |
| 110 | 4% | 10% | |
| 111 | 2% | 6% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 6% | 91% | |
| 70 | 6% | 85% | |
| 71 | 11% | 79% | |
| 72 | 18% | 69% | |
| 73 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 36% | |
| 75 | 6% | 24% | |
| 76 | 5% | 19% | |
| 77 | 6% | 13% | |
| 78 | 3% | 8% | |
| 79 | 3% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 10% | 95% | |
| 61 | 13% | 85% | |
| 62 | 18% | 72% | |
| 63 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 64 | 9% | 42% | |
| 65 | 9% | 33% | |
| 66 | 7% | 24% | |
| 67 | 5% | 17% | |
| 68 | 4% | 12% | |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 71 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 10% | 95% | |
| 26 | 11% | 85% | |
| 27 | 22% | 73% | |
| 28 | 19% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 29 | 13% | 33% | |
| 30 | 11% | 20% | |
| 31 | 5% | 8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 7% | 95% | |
| 25 | 12% | 88% | |
| 26 | 23% | 75% | |
| 27 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 35% | |
| 29 | 12% | 22% | |
| 30 | 6% | 9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 17 | 9% | 96% | |
| 18 | 18% | 87% | |
| 19 | 28% | 69% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 40% | |
| 21 | 12% | 21% | |
| 22 | 6% | 10% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 6% | 98% | Last Result |
| 17 | 11% | 92% | |
| 18 | 21% | 81% | |
| 19 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 38% | |
| 21 | 13% | 19% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 0% | 92% | |
| 8 | 0% | 92% | |
| 9 | 0% | 92% | |
| 10 | 0% | 92% | |
| 11 | 0% | 92% | |
| 12 | 0% | 92% | |
| 13 | 0% | 92% | |
| 14 | 3% | 92% | |
| 15 | 19% | 89% | |
| 16 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 21% | 47% | |
| 18 | 17% | 26% | |
| 19 | 6% | 9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 195 | 100% | 190–201 | 188–205 | 187–207 | 185–210 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 195 | 100% | 188–198 | 187–198 | 185–200 | 180–204 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 175 | 179 | 78% | 172–182 | 171–188 | 170–188 | 169–190 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 174 | 170 | 22% | 167–177 | 161–178 | 161–179 | 159–180 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 168 | 10% | 163–175 | 162–177 | 161–178 | 158–182 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 166 | 1.1% | 160–171 | 158–172 | 156–173 | 151–175 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 154 | 0% | 151–161 | 151–162 | 149–164 | 145–169 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 152 | 0% | 145–156 | 144–159 | 143–160 | 142–163 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 147 | 150 | 0% | 145–156 | 144–158 | 142–160 | 140–162 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 134 | 0% | 133–142 | 132–143 | 130–144 | 126–149 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 133 | 0% | 127–137 | 126–140 | 125–140 | 123–144 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 125 | 0% | 119–130 | 115–131 | 114–133 | 110–135 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 124 | 0% | 119–129 | 117–130 | 116–132 | 114–135 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 109 | 0% | 105–115 | 104–116 | 102–118 | 100–121 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 106 | 0% | 100–111 | 96–112 | 94–113 | 90–115 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 105 | 0% | 100–110 | 99–111 | 98–112 | 96–115 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 112 | 99 | 0% | 93–104 | 89–105 | 84–106 | 82–108 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 90 | 0% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 84–98 | 82–100 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 92 | 82 | 0% | 79–88 | 78–89 | 77–90 | 75–93 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 188 | 2% | 97% | |
| 189 | 2% | 95% | |
| 190 | 8% | 93% | |
| 191 | 7% | 85% | |
| 192 | 8% | 78% | |
| 193 | 12% | 70% | |
| 194 | 5% | 58% | |
| 195 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 196 | 8% | 40% | |
| 197 | 5% | 32% | |
| 198 | 9% | 27% | |
| 199 | 3% | 18% | |
| 200 | 4% | 15% | |
| 201 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 202 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 203 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 204 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 205 | 2% | 5% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 207 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 208 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 186 | 2% | 97% | |
| 187 | 5% | 96% | |
| 188 | 9% | 91% | |
| 189 | 7% | 82% | |
| 190 | 3% | 75% | |
| 191 | 1.2% | 72% | |
| 192 | 1.1% | 71% | |
| 193 | 3% | 70% | |
| 194 | 9% | 67% | |
| 195 | 17% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 196 | 20% | 41% | |
| 197 | 10% | 21% | |
| 198 | 8% | 12% | |
| 199 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 170 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 171 | 5% | 96% | |
| 172 | 7% | 91% | |
| 173 | 3% | 84% | |
| 174 | 2% | 80% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 78% | Last Result, Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 78% | |
| 177 | 8% | 76% | |
| 178 | 14% | 68% | |
| 179 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 180 | 16% | 39% | |
| 181 | 12% | 23% | |
| 182 | 2% | 11% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 187 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 188 | 3% | 5% | |
| 189 | 2% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 3% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 167 | 2% | 91% | |
| 168 | 12% | 89% | |
| 169 | 16% | 77% | |
| 170 | 15% | 61% | |
| 171 | 14% | 46% | Median |
| 172 | 8% | 32% | |
| 173 | 2% | 24% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 22% | Last Result |
| 175 | 2% | 22% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 20% | |
| 177 | 7% | 16% | |
| 178 | 5% | 9% | |
| 179 | 3% | 4% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 161 | 2% | 98% | |
| 162 | 3% | 96% | |
| 163 | 5% | 94% | |
| 164 | 8% | 89% | |
| 165 | 10% | 81% | |
| 166 | 8% | 71% | |
| 167 | 13% | 64% | |
| 168 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 169 | 9% | 43% | |
| 170 | 8% | 35% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 27% | |
| 172 | 9% | 24% | |
| 173 | 2% | 15% | |
| 174 | 3% | 13% | |
| 175 | 4% | 10% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 177 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 178 | 2% | 4% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 158 | 2% | 96% | |
| 159 | 3% | 94% | |
| 160 | 3% | 91% | |
| 161 | 4% | 88% | |
| 162 | 6% | 84% | |
| 163 | 6% | 79% | |
| 164 | 6% | 73% | |
| 165 | 10% | 67% | |
| 166 | 8% | 58% | |
| 167 | 8% | 49% | Last Result, Median |
| 168 | 12% | 42% | |
| 169 | 10% | 30% | |
| 170 | 7% | 20% | |
| 171 | 6% | 13% | |
| 172 | 2% | 7% | |
| 173 | 3% | 5% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 150 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 151 | 8% | 96% | |
| 152 | 10% | 88% | |
| 153 | 20% | 79% | |
| 154 | 17% | 59% | Last Result |
| 155 | 9% | 41% | Median |
| 156 | 3% | 33% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 30% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 29% | |
| 159 | 3% | 28% | |
| 160 | 7% | 25% | |
| 161 | 9% | 18% | |
| 162 | 5% | 9% | |
| 163 | 2% | 4% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 94% | |
| 146 | 3% | 89% | |
| 147 | 4% | 86% | |
| 148 | 4% | 82% | |
| 149 | 4% | 77% | |
| 150 | 8% | 73% | |
| 151 | 13% | 64% | |
| 152 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 153 | 13% | 44% | |
| 154 | 12% | 31% | |
| 155 | 7% | 19% | |
| 156 | 3% | 12% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 158 | 2% | 8% | |
| 159 | 3% | 6% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | |
| 145 | 7% | 94% | |
| 146 | 2% | 87% | |
| 147 | 11% | 85% | Last Result |
| 148 | 5% | 74% | |
| 149 | 4% | 69% | |
| 150 | 20% | 65% | |
| 151 | 4% | 45% | Median |
| 152 | 7% | 41% | |
| 153 | 13% | 34% | |
| 154 | 4% | 21% | |
| 155 | 4% | 16% | |
| 156 | 4% | 12% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 158 | 2% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 132 | 5% | 96% | Last Result |
| 133 | 12% | 91% | |
| 134 | 30% | 79% | |
| 135 | 10% | 49% | |
| 136 | 8% | 39% | Median |
| 137 | 0.6% | 31% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 139 | 4% | 29% | |
| 140 | 4% | 25% | |
| 141 | 5% | 21% | |
| 142 | 9% | 15% | |
| 143 | 3% | 7% | |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 125 | 2% | 98% | |
| 126 | 3% | 96% | |
| 127 | 5% | 93% | |
| 128 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 83% | |
| 130 | 5% | 79% | |
| 131 | 11% | 74% | |
| 132 | 10% | 63% | |
| 133 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 134 | 10% | 40% | |
| 135 | 9% | 30% | |
| 136 | 8% | 21% | |
| 137 | 3% | 13% | |
| 138 | 2% | 10% | |
| 139 | 2% | 7% | |
| 140 | 3% | 5% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 119 | 3% | 92% | |
| 120 | 2% | 89% | |
| 121 | 6% | 86% | |
| 122 | 10% | 80% | |
| 123 | 5% | 70% | |
| 124 | 8% | 66% | |
| 125 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 126 | 11% | 48% | |
| 127 | 10% | 37% | |
| 128 | 7% | 27% | |
| 129 | 7% | 20% | |
| 130 | 4% | 13% | |
| 131 | 4% | 9% | |
| 132 | 2% | 5% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 3% | 94% | |
| 119 | 4% | 91% | |
| 120 | 9% | 87% | |
| 121 | 6% | 78% | |
| 122 | 7% | 71% | |
| 123 | 11% | 64% | |
| 124 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 125 | 5% | 39% | |
| 126 | 8% | 34% | |
| 127 | 9% | 26% | |
| 128 | 6% | 17% | |
| 129 | 3% | 11% | |
| 130 | 3% | 8% | |
| 131 | 2% | 5% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 102 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 4% | 92% | |
| 106 | 15% | 89% | |
| 107 | 7% | 74% | |
| 108 | 9% | 67% | |
| 109 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 110 | 10% | 47% | |
| 111 | 9% | 37% | |
| 112 | 8% | 29% | |
| 113 | 5% | 20% | |
| 114 | 5% | 15% | |
| 115 | 4% | 10% | |
| 116 | 2% | 6% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 119 | 2% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 98 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 100 | 2% | 91% | |
| 101 | 2% | 89% | |
| 102 | 5% | 86% | |
| 103 | 9% | 81% | |
| 104 | 7% | 72% | |
| 105 | 9% | 65% | |
| 106 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 107 | 16% | 48% | |
| 108 | 7% | 32% | |
| 109 | 7% | 25% | |
| 110 | 7% | 18% | |
| 111 | 4% | 11% | |
| 112 | 3% | 6% | |
| 113 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 96% | |
| 100 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 101 | 7% | 89% | |
| 102 | 9% | 82% | |
| 103 | 11% | 73% | |
| 104 | 10% | 63% | |
| 105 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 106 | 12% | 44% | |
| 107 | 8% | 31% | |
| 108 | 7% | 23% | |
| 109 | 6% | 16% | |
| 110 | 4% | 10% | |
| 111 | 2% | 6% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 93 | 4% | 91% | |
| 94 | 2% | 88% | |
| 95 | 6% | 86% | |
| 96 | 18% | 80% | |
| 97 | 6% | 62% | |
| 98 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 99 | 13% | 52% | |
| 100 | 8% | 38% | |
| 101 | 9% | 30% | |
| 102 | 5% | 20% | |
| 103 | 4% | 16% | |
| 104 | 5% | 11% | |
| 105 | 3% | 6% | |
| 106 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 96% | |
| 86 | 7% | 93% | |
| 87 | 9% | 86% | |
| 88 | 9% | 77% | |
| 89 | 14% | 68% | |
| 90 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 91 | 13% | 45% | |
| 92 | 8% | 32% | |
| 93 | 6% | 24% | |
| 94 | 4% | 18% | |
| 95 | 5% | 13% | |
| 96 | 3% | 8% | |
| 97 | 2% | 5% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 97% | |
| 79 | 9% | 93% | |
| 80 | 14% | 84% | |
| 81 | 14% | 69% | |
| 82 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 83 | 7% | 45% | |
| 84 | 10% | 38% | |
| 85 | 7% | 28% | |
| 86 | 5% | 21% | |
| 87 | 5% | 16% | |
| 88 | 4% | 11% | |
| 89 | 4% | 7% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 93 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 21–29 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2216
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.75%