Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 27–29 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.8% | 28.3–31.4% | 27.9–31.8% | 27.5–32.2% | 26.8–32.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 20.9% | 19.6–22.3% | 19.2–22.7% | 18.9–23.0% | 18.3–23.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 15.6% | 14.4–16.9% | 14.1–17.2% | 13.8–17.5% | 13.3–18.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.9–8.7% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.5–9.2% | 6.1–9.7% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7–8.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.3–9.0% | 5.9–9.5% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7–7.3% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.2–7.3% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.2–6.4% | 3.9–6.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 105 | 99–110 | 98–111 | 97–113 | 94–117 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 74 | 69–78 | 68–80 | 66–82 | 64–84 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 56 | 50–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 47–64 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 28 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 23–33 | 21–34 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 27 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 22–32 | 21–33 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 19–27 | 17–29 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 20 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 15–26 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 0–24 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | |
| 98 | 2% | 97% | |
| 99 | 11% | 95% | |
| 100 | 6% | 84% | Last Result |
| 101 | 3% | 78% | |
| 102 | 7% | 75% | |
| 103 | 6% | 68% | |
| 104 | 8% | 63% | |
| 105 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 106 | 5% | 46% | |
| 107 | 4% | 42% | |
| 108 | 15% | 38% | |
| 109 | 11% | 22% | |
| 110 | 5% | 12% | |
| 111 | 2% | 7% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 6% | 92% | |
| 70 | 9% | 86% | |
| 71 | 9% | 77% | |
| 72 | 5% | 68% | |
| 73 | 8% | 63% | |
| 74 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 75 | 25% | 48% | |
| 76 | 5% | 23% | |
| 77 | 6% | 18% | |
| 78 | 3% | 12% | |
| 79 | 3% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 5% | 95% | |
| 51 | 5% | 90% | |
| 52 | 6% | 85% | |
| 53 | 4% | 79% | |
| 54 | 7% | 74% | |
| 55 | 9% | 68% | |
| 56 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 41% | |
| 58 | 8% | 27% | |
| 59 | 9% | 19% | |
| 60 | 6% | 10% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98% | |
| 24 | 6% | 93% | |
| 25 | 14% | 87% | |
| 26 | 11% | 74% | |
| 27 | 12% | 62% | |
| 28 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 36% | |
| 30 | 8% | 22% | |
| 31 | 8% | 13% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 5% | 96% | |
| 24 | 7% | 91% | |
| 25 | 16% | 84% | |
| 26 | 18% | 68% | |
| 27 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 38% | Last Result |
| 29 | 12% | 25% | |
| 30 | 5% | 12% | |
| 31 | 4% | 7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 5% | 98% | |
| 20 | 9% | 93% | |
| 21 | 13% | 84% | |
| 22 | 20% | 72% | Last Result |
| 23 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 15% | 35% | |
| 25 | 8% | 20% | |
| 26 | 7% | 12% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 17 | 10% | 94% | |
| 18 | 13% | 85% | |
| 19 | 16% | 71% | |
| 20 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 33% | |
| 22 | 10% | 20% | |
| 23 | 5% | 10% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | |
| 16 | 8% | 93% | |
| 17 | 19% | 86% | |
| 18 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 46% | |
| 20 | 10% | 29% | Last Result |
| 21 | 9% | 19% | |
| 22 | 7% | 10% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 197 | 100% | 191–203 | 190–205 | 189–206 | 185–210 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 188 | 99.8% | 182–194 | 180–196 | 179–198 | 176–201 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 171 | 19% | 164–177 | 163–178 | 162–179 | 157–183 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 161 | 0.3% | 154–166 | 153–168 | 151–169 | 149–174 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 152 | 0% | 145–157 | 144–159 | 143–161 | 140–164 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 152 | 0% | 146–158 | 144–159 | 143–160 | 139–164 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 132 | 0% | 125–137 | 124–139 | 124–140 | 121–144 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 130 | 0% | 123–134 | 122–135 | 121–137 | 116–141 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 125 | 0% | 119–130 | 117–132 | 116–134 | 113–137 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 124 | 0% | 118–130 | 117–131 | 115–133 | 108–135 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 105 | 0% | 100–111 | 99–113 | 97–114 | 94–116 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 101 | 0% | 96–107 | 94–108 | 92–110 | 85–112 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 82 | 0% | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–90 | 72–93 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 189 | 2% | 98% | |
| 190 | 2% | 97% | |
| 191 | 6% | 94% | |
| 192 | 4% | 89% | |
| 193 | 5% | 85% | |
| 194 | 8% | 79% | |
| 195 | 4% | 72% | Last Result |
| 196 | 10% | 67% | |
| 197 | 13% | 58% | |
| 198 | 13% | 45% | Median |
| 199 | 4% | 32% | |
| 200 | 6% | 28% | |
| 201 | 3% | 22% | |
| 202 | 5% | 20% | |
| 203 | 5% | 15% | |
| 204 | 4% | 10% | |
| 205 | 3% | 5% | |
| 206 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 180 | 3% | 96% | |
| 181 | 3% | 94% | |
| 182 | 2% | 91% | |
| 183 | 4% | 89% | |
| 184 | 10% | 84% | |
| 185 | 4% | 74% | |
| 186 | 4% | 70% | |
| 187 | 14% | 66% | |
| 188 | 7% | 52% | |
| 189 | 11% | 45% | Median |
| 190 | 7% | 34% | |
| 191 | 7% | 27% | |
| 192 | 6% | 20% | |
| 193 | 3% | 14% | |
| 194 | 2% | 11% | |
| 195 | 3% | 10% | |
| 196 | 4% | 7% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 198 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 162 | 2% | 98% | |
| 163 | 2% | 96% | |
| 164 | 4% | 94% | |
| 165 | 6% | 90% | |
| 166 | 4% | 84% | |
| 167 | 6% | 80% | Last Result |
| 168 | 7% | 74% | |
| 169 | 8% | 67% | |
| 170 | 6% | 59% | |
| 171 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 172 | 7% | 39% | |
| 173 | 7% | 32% | |
| 174 | 6% | 25% | |
| 175 | 5% | 19% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 14% | |
| 177 | 3% | 10% | |
| 178 | 4% | 7% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 152 | 2% | 97% | |
| 153 | 2% | 95% | |
| 154 | 4% | 93% | |
| 155 | 5% | 89% | |
| 156 | 11% | 85% | |
| 157 | 4% | 74% | |
| 158 | 7% | 70% | |
| 159 | 6% | 63% | |
| 160 | 4% | 57% | |
| 161 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 162 | 5% | 42% | |
| 163 | 6% | 38% | |
| 164 | 10% | 32% | |
| 165 | 9% | 22% | |
| 166 | 3% | 13% | |
| 167 | 2% | 10% | |
| 168 | 4% | 7% | |
| 169 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 143 | 2% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 94% | |
| 146 | 5% | 89% | |
| 147 | 6% | 84% | |
| 148 | 7% | 78% | |
| 149 | 6% | 71% | |
| 150 | 6% | 65% | |
| 151 | 8% | 59% | |
| 152 | 10% | 50% | Median |
| 153 | 6% | 40% | |
| 154 | 10% | 34% | |
| 155 | 8% | 25% | |
| 156 | 4% | 17% | |
| 157 | 3% | 13% | |
| 158 | 3% | 10% | |
| 159 | 3% | 7% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 144 | 3% | 97% | |
| 145 | 4% | 95% | |
| 146 | 5% | 90% | |
| 147 | 5% | 85% | |
| 148 | 3% | 80% | |
| 149 | 6% | 78% | |
| 150 | 4% | 72% | |
| 151 | 13% | 68% | |
| 152 | 13% | 55% | |
| 153 | 10% | 42% | Median |
| 154 | 4% | 33% | Last Result |
| 155 | 8% | 28% | |
| 156 | 5% | 21% | |
| 157 | 4% | 15% | |
| 158 | 6% | 11% | |
| 159 | 2% | 6% | |
| 160 | 2% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 124 | 3% | 98% | |
| 125 | 6% | 95% | |
| 126 | 3% | 89% | |
| 127 | 4% | 86% | |
| 128 | 10% | 81% | Last Result |
| 129 | 6% | 72% | |
| 130 | 5% | 65% | |
| 131 | 7% | 60% | |
| 132 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 133 | 7% | 46% | |
| 134 | 14% | 39% | |
| 135 | 5% | 25% | |
| 136 | 6% | 21% | |
| 137 | 5% | 14% | |
| 138 | 4% | 10% | |
| 139 | 2% | 6% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 122 | 3% | 97% | |
| 123 | 4% | 94% | |
| 124 | 6% | 89% | |
| 125 | 9% | 83% | |
| 126 | 6% | 74% | |
| 127 | 5% | 68% | |
| 128 | 5% | 63% | |
| 129 | 6% | 58% | |
| 130 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 131 | 16% | 46% | |
| 132 | 11% | 31% | Last Result |
| 133 | 4% | 20% | |
| 134 | 8% | 16% | |
| 135 | 3% | 8% | |
| 136 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 98% | Last Result |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 4% | 95% | |
| 119 | 7% | 91% | |
| 120 | 7% | 84% | |
| 121 | 5% | 77% | |
| 122 | 6% | 72% | |
| 123 | 6% | 66% | |
| 124 | 9% | 60% | |
| 125 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 126 | 9% | 45% | |
| 127 | 8% | 36% | |
| 128 | 4% | 29% | |
| 129 | 11% | 24% | |
| 130 | 4% | 14% | |
| 131 | 3% | 10% | |
| 132 | 2% | 7% | |
| 133 | 2% | 5% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 97% | |
| 117 | 3% | 95% | |
| 118 | 2% | 92% | |
| 119 | 7% | 89% | |
| 120 | 8% | 82% | |
| 121 | 5% | 74% | |
| 122 | 6% | 69% | |
| 123 | 8% | 63% | |
| 124 | 7% | 55% | |
| 125 | 5% | 48% | Median |
| 126 | 11% | 43% | |
| 127 | 7% | 32% | |
| 128 | 7% | 25% | |
| 129 | 5% | 18% | |
| 130 | 4% | 13% | |
| 131 | 4% | 9% | |
| 132 | 2% | 5% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 99 | 3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 4% | 93% | |
| 101 | 5% | 89% | |
| 102 | 10% | 84% | |
| 103 | 10% | 74% | |
| 104 | 6% | 64% | |
| 105 | 8% | 58% | |
| 106 | 7% | 50% | |
| 107 | 5% | 43% | Median |
| 108 | 8% | 37% | |
| 109 | 7% | 29% | |
| 110 | 8% | 22% | |
| 111 | 5% | 15% | |
| 112 | 4% | 10% | |
| 113 | 3% | 6% | |
| 114 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 94 | 2% | 96% | |
| 95 | 4% | 94% | |
| 96 | 3% | 90% | |
| 97 | 5% | 87% | |
| 98 | 12% | 82% | |
| 99 | 6% | 70% | |
| 100 | 7% | 64% | |
| 101 | 7% | 57% | |
| 102 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 103 | 10% | 42% | |
| 104 | 7% | 32% | |
| 105 | 4% | 25% | |
| 106 | 8% | 21% | |
| 107 | 6% | 14% | |
| 108 | 3% | 7% | |
| 109 | 2% | 5% | |
| 110 | 2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 6% | 93% | |
| 79 | 8% | 88% | |
| 80 | 8% | 80% | |
| 81 | 14% | 72% | |
| 82 | 8% | 58% | |
| 83 | 6% | 50% | |
| 84 | 7% | 44% | Median |
| 85 | 8% | 37% | |
| 86 | 7% | 30% | |
| 87 | 5% | 22% | |
| 88 | 9% | 17% | |
| 89 | 4% | 8% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 27–29 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.58%