Opinion Poll by SKOP, 25–29 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.8% | 25.1–28.6% | 24.6–29.1% | 24.2–29.5% | 23.4–30.4% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.8% | 17.3–20.4% | 16.9–20.8% | 16.5–21.2% | 15.9–22.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.1% | 16.7–19.7% | 16.3–20.1% | 15.9–20.5% | 15.2–21.3% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.2% | 7.1–10.5% | 6.7–11.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3–8.3% | 6.0–8.6% | 5.8–8.9% | 5.4–9.5% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.3–8.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 96 | 90–101 | 88–102 | 86–104 | 83–107 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 66 | 61–72 | 59–73 | 58–74 | 56–78 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 64 | 59–69 | 57–71 | 56–73 | 54–75 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 30 | 27–34 | 26–36 | 25–37 | 24–40 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 26 | 22–30 | 21–31 | 20–31 | 19–33 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 20–26 | 19–28 | 18–29 | 17–30 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 23 | 20–27 | 19–28 | 18–29 | 17–30 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 21 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 16–26 | 15–28 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 88 | 2% | 96% | |
| 89 | 2% | 95% | |
| 90 | 3% | 93% | |
| 91 | 6% | 90% | |
| 92 | 4% | 84% | |
| 93 | 9% | 79% | |
| 94 | 9% | 71% | |
| 95 | 10% | 62% | |
| 96 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 97 | 8% | 42% | |
| 98 | 10% | 34% | |
| 99 | 6% | 24% | |
| 100 | 5% | 18% | Last Result |
| 101 | 5% | 12% | |
| 102 | 3% | 8% | |
| 103 | 2% | 5% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 3% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 91% | |
| 62 | 5% | 86% | Last Result |
| 63 | 7% | 80% | |
| 64 | 7% | 73% | |
| 65 | 10% | 67% | |
| 66 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 67 | 6% | 47% | |
| 68 | 11% | 40% | |
| 69 | 8% | 29% | |
| 70 | 5% | 21% | |
| 71 | 5% | 16% | |
| 72 | 4% | 11% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 4% | 90% | |
| 60 | 8% | 86% | |
| 61 | 7% | 78% | |
| 62 | 8% | 71% | |
| 63 | 11% | 63% | |
| 64 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 65 | 9% | 43% | |
| 66 | 7% | 34% | |
| 67 | 9% | 27% | |
| 68 | 5% | 18% | |
| 69 | 4% | 13% | |
| 70 | 2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 7% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 7% | 93% | |
| 28 | 9% | 86% | Last Result |
| 29 | 17% | 77% | |
| 30 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 31 | 18% | 49% | |
| 32 | 9% | 31% | |
| 33 | 8% | 22% | |
| 34 | 6% | 14% | |
| 35 | 3% | 8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 21 | 4% | 97% | |
| 22 | 6% | 94% | |
| 23 | 8% | 87% | |
| 24 | 13% | 79% | |
| 25 | 14% | 66% | |
| 26 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 27 | 10% | 38% | |
| 28 | 9% | 27% | |
| 29 | 8% | 18% | |
| 30 | 5% | 10% | |
| 31 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 32 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 97% | |
| 20 | 10% | 94% | |
| 21 | 15% | 84% | |
| 22 | 13% | 69% | Last Result |
| 23 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 47% | |
| 25 | 13% | 29% | |
| 26 | 7% | 16% | |
| 27 | 3% | 10% | |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 96% | |
| 20 | 7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 21 | 12% | 85% | |
| 22 | 16% | 73% | |
| 23 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 24 | 12% | 43% | |
| 25 | 12% | 31% | |
| 26 | 8% | 18% | |
| 27 | 4% | 10% | |
| 28 | 4% | 7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 17 | 5% | 96% | |
| 18 | 9% | 91% | |
| 19 | 15% | 83% | |
| 20 | 15% | 68% | |
| 21 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 13% | 37% | |
| 23 | 10% | 24% | |
| 24 | 7% | 14% | |
| 25 | 3% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 196 | 100% | 189–203 | 187–205 | 185–206 | 181–209 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 185 | 98% | 179–191 | 177–193 | 175–195 | 171–198 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 174 | 176 | 61% | 169–184 | 167–186 | 166–187 | 163–191 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 175 | 173 | 39% | 165–180 | 163–182 | 162–183 | 158–186 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 165 | 4% | 159–171 | 157–174 | 155–175 | 150–178 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 159 | 0.2% | 153–166 | 151–168 | 149–169 | 146–173 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 153 | 0% | 146–160 | 144–162 | 143–164 | 140–168 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 147 | 0% | 140–154 | 138–155 | 136–157 | 133–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 147 | 142 | 0% | 136–149 | 134–151 | 132–152 | 128–154 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 136 | 0% | 129–143 | 127–145 | 126–146 | 122–150 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 130 | 0% | 123–137 | 122–139 | 120–141 | 117–144 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 126 | 0% | 119–132 | 117–135 | 116–136 | 112–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 117 | 0% | 110–123 | 109–124 | 107–126 | 103–129 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 113 | 0% | 106–119 | 105–121 | 103–123 | 100–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 113 | 0% | 106–119 | 105–121 | 103–122 | 100–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 112 | 110 | 0% | 104–117 | 101–118 | 101–120 | 98–124 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 96 | 0% | 90–101 | 88–102 | 86–104 | 83–107 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 90 | 0% | 83–96 | 82–97 | 80–99 | 78–102 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 92 | 87 | 0% | 81–93 | 80–95 | 78–96 | 75–99 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 187 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 188 | 4% | 94% | |
| 189 | 3% | 90% | |
| 190 | 4% | 88% | |
| 191 | 5% | 84% | |
| 192 | 4% | 79% | |
| 193 | 6% | 75% | |
| 194 | 11% | 69% | |
| 195 | 4% | 57% | Last Result |
| 196 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 197 | 5% | 46% | |
| 198 | 10% | 41% | |
| 199 | 5% | 30% | |
| 200 | 8% | 26% | |
| 201 | 5% | 18% | |
| 202 | 2% | 13% | |
| 203 | 2% | 11% | |
| 204 | 3% | 9% | |
| 205 | 2% | 5% | |
| 206 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 207 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 98% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 2% | 96% | |
| 178 | 2% | 94% | |
| 179 | 4% | 92% | |
| 180 | 3% | 88% | |
| 181 | 6% | 84% | |
| 182 | 6% | 78% | |
| 183 | 8% | 72% | |
| 184 | 6% | 64% | |
| 185 | 12% | 59% | |
| 186 | 5% | 47% | Median |
| 187 | 8% | 41% | |
| 188 | 6% | 33% | |
| 189 | 7% | 26% | |
| 190 | 5% | 19% | |
| 191 | 4% | 14% | |
| 192 | 3% | 10% | |
| 193 | 2% | 7% | |
| 194 | 2% | 5% | |
| 195 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 166 | 2% | 98% | |
| 167 | 3% | 97% | |
| 168 | 2% | 94% | |
| 169 | 2% | 92% | |
| 170 | 4% | 89% | |
| 171 | 3% | 86% | |
| 172 | 7% | 82% | |
| 173 | 7% | 75% | |
| 174 | 7% | 69% | Last Result |
| 175 | 5% | 61% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 177 | 9% | 49% | |
| 178 | 7% | 40% | |
| 179 | 6% | 34% | |
| 180 | 6% | 28% | |
| 181 | 5% | 22% | |
| 182 | 3% | 17% | |
| 183 | 4% | 14% | |
| 184 | 3% | 10% | |
| 185 | 2% | 7% | |
| 186 | 2% | 6% | |
| 187 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 162 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 163 | 2% | 97% | |
| 164 | 2% | 94% | |
| 165 | 3% | 93% | |
| 166 | 4% | 90% | |
| 167 | 3% | 86% | |
| 168 | 5% | 83% | |
| 169 | 6% | 78% | |
| 170 | 6% | 72% | |
| 171 | 7% | 66% | |
| 172 | 9% | 60% | |
| 173 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 174 | 5% | 44% | |
| 175 | 7% | 39% | Last Result, Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 31% | |
| 177 | 7% | 25% | |
| 178 | 3% | 18% | |
| 179 | 4% | 14% | |
| 180 | 2% | 11% | |
| 181 | 2% | 8% | |
| 182 | 3% | 6% | |
| 183 | 2% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 156 | 2% | 97% | |
| 157 | 2% | 96% | |
| 158 | 2% | 93% | |
| 159 | 3% | 91% | |
| 160 | 2% | 88% | |
| 161 | 5% | 86% | |
| 162 | 5% | 81% | |
| 163 | 13% | 76% | |
| 164 | 8% | 62% | |
| 165 | 5% | 54% | |
| 166 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 167 | 10% | 44% | Last Result |
| 168 | 7% | 34% | |
| 169 | 9% | 27% | |
| 170 | 6% | 18% | |
| 171 | 4% | 13% | |
| 172 | 2% | 9% | |
| 173 | 2% | 7% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 175 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 151 | 2% | 96% | |
| 152 | 2% | 95% | |
| 153 | 2% | 92% | |
| 154 | 3% | 90% | |
| 155 | 6% | 86% | |
| 156 | 5% | 81% | |
| 157 | 10% | 76% | |
| 158 | 9% | 66% | |
| 159 | 7% | 56% | |
| 160 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 161 | 11% | 44% | |
| 162 | 8% | 33% | |
| 163 | 5% | 25% | |
| 164 | 5% | 20% | |
| 165 | 5% | 16% | |
| 166 | 3% | 10% | |
| 167 | 2% | 8% | |
| 168 | 2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 2% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 2% | 91% | |
| 147 | 2% | 89% | |
| 148 | 5% | 87% | |
| 149 | 8% | 82% | |
| 150 | 5% | 74% | |
| 151 | 10% | 70% | |
| 152 | 5% | 59% | |
| 153 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 154 | 4% | 47% | Last Result |
| 155 | 11% | 43% | |
| 156 | 6% | 31% | |
| 157 | 4% | 25% | |
| 158 | 5% | 21% | |
| 159 | 4% | 16% | |
| 160 | 3% | 12% | |
| 161 | 4% | 10% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 164 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 137 | 2% | 97% | |
| 138 | 2% | 96% | |
| 139 | 3% | 94% | |
| 140 | 3% | 91% | |
| 141 | 4% | 88% | |
| 142 | 4% | 85% | |
| 143 | 6% | 80% | |
| 144 | 7% | 74% | Last Result |
| 145 | 7% | 67% | |
| 146 | 7% | 60% | |
| 147 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 148 | 8% | 46% | |
| 149 | 7% | 38% | |
| 150 | 4% | 30% | |
| 151 | 7% | 27% | |
| 152 | 4% | 19% | |
| 153 | 5% | 16% | |
| 154 | 2% | 11% | |
| 155 | 4% | 9% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 157 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 134 | 2% | 95% | |
| 135 | 4% | 94% | |
| 136 | 2% | 90% | |
| 137 | 5% | 88% | |
| 138 | 6% | 82% | |
| 139 | 5% | 76% | |
| 140 | 7% | 71% | |
| 141 | 10% | 64% | |
| 142 | 7% | 55% | |
| 143 | 8% | 48% | Median |
| 144 | 6% | 40% | |
| 145 | 8% | 34% | |
| 146 | 6% | 26% | |
| 147 | 5% | 19% | Last Result |
| 148 | 3% | 14% | |
| 149 | 4% | 11% | |
| 150 | 2% | 7% | |
| 151 | 2% | 5% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 127 | 2% | 97% | |
| 128 | 2% | 95% | |
| 129 | 3% | 92% | |
| 130 | 4% | 89% | |
| 131 | 4% | 85% | |
| 132 | 5% | 81% | |
| 133 | 14% | 76% | |
| 134 | 5% | 62% | |
| 135 | 4% | 57% | |
| 136 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 137 | 8% | 45% | |
| 138 | 7% | 38% | |
| 139 | 5% | 30% | |
| 140 | 6% | 26% | |
| 141 | 4% | 19% | |
| 142 | 5% | 15% | |
| 143 | 2% | 10% | Last Result |
| 144 | 3% | 9% | |
| 145 | 2% | 6% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 5% | 93% | |
| 124 | 3% | 88% | |
| 125 | 6% | 84% | |
| 126 | 4% | 79% | |
| 127 | 5% | 75% | |
| 128 | 6% | 70% | |
| 129 | 11% | 64% | |
| 130 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 131 | 9% | 45% | |
| 132 | 6% | 36% | Last Result |
| 133 | 3% | 30% | |
| 134 | 3% | 27% | |
| 135 | 8% | 24% | |
| 136 | 5% | 16% | |
| 137 | 4% | 11% | |
| 138 | 3% | 8% | |
| 139 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 2% | 95% | |
| 119 | 4% | 93% | |
| 120 | 2% | 89% | |
| 121 | 3% | 87% | |
| 122 | 9% | 83% | |
| 123 | 6% | 74% | |
| 124 | 6% | 68% | |
| 125 | 7% | 62% | |
| 126 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 127 | 6% | 47% | |
| 128 | 6% | 41% | Last Result |
| 129 | 8% | 35% | |
| 130 | 6% | 27% | |
| 131 | 5% | 21% | |
| 132 | 6% | 15% | |
| 133 | 2% | 10% | |
| 134 | 3% | 8% | |
| 135 | 2% | 5% | |
| 136 | 2% | 4% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 97% | |
| 109 | 3% | 95% | |
| 110 | 3% | 92% | |
| 111 | 4% | 89% | |
| 112 | 7% | 86% | |
| 113 | 7% | 79% | |
| 114 | 5% | 72% | |
| 115 | 11% | 67% | |
| 116 | 6% | 56% | Last Result |
| 117 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 118 | 8% | 40% | |
| 119 | 6% | 32% | |
| 120 | 7% | 26% | |
| 121 | 5% | 20% | |
| 122 | 4% | 15% | |
| 123 | 3% | 11% | |
| 124 | 3% | 7% | |
| 125 | 2% | 4% | |
| 126 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 104 | 2% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 95% | |
| 106 | 3% | 92% | |
| 107 | 4% | 90% | |
| 108 | 6% | 86% | |
| 109 | 7% | 80% | |
| 110 | 7% | 73% | |
| 111 | 10% | 66% | |
| 112 | 5% | 56% | |
| 113 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 114 | 7% | 43% | |
| 115 | 7% | 37% | |
| 116 | 5% | 29% | |
| 117 | 6% | 24% | |
| 118 | 5% | 18% | |
| 119 | 4% | 13% | |
| 120 | 3% | 9% | |
| 121 | 2% | 6% | |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 95% | |
| 106 | 4% | 93% | |
| 107 | 3% | 88% | |
| 108 | 4% | 86% | |
| 109 | 9% | 81% | |
| 110 | 6% | 72% | |
| 111 | 9% | 67% | |
| 112 | 8% | 58% | |
| 113 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 114 | 5% | 43% | |
| 115 | 6% | 38% | |
| 116 | 9% | 32% | |
| 117 | 5% | 23% | |
| 118 | 5% | 18% | |
| 119 | 3% | 13% | |
| 120 | 2% | 10% | |
| 121 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 122 | 2% | 5% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 101 | 3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 95% | |
| 103 | 2% | 93% | |
| 104 | 4% | 91% | |
| 105 | 4% | 87% | |
| 106 | 4% | 83% | |
| 107 | 8% | 79% | |
| 108 | 9% | 71% | |
| 109 | 11% | 62% | |
| 110 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 111 | 10% | 46% | |
| 112 | 6% | 37% | Last Result |
| 113 | 7% | 30% | |
| 114 | 3% | 24% | |
| 115 | 4% | 20% | |
| 116 | 4% | 16% | |
| 117 | 4% | 12% | |
| 118 | 3% | 8% | |
| 119 | 2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 88 | 2% | 96% | |
| 89 | 2% | 95% | |
| 90 | 3% | 93% | |
| 91 | 6% | 90% | |
| 92 | 4% | 84% | |
| 93 | 9% | 79% | |
| 94 | 9% | 71% | |
| 95 | 10% | 62% | |
| 96 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 97 | 8% | 42% | |
| 98 | 10% | 34% | |
| 99 | 6% | 24% | |
| 100 | 5% | 18% | Last Result |
| 101 | 5% | 12% | |
| 102 | 3% | 8% | |
| 103 | 2% | 5% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 97% | |
| 82 | 2% | 95% | |
| 83 | 3% | 93% | |
| 84 | 3% | 90% | |
| 85 | 5% | 87% | |
| 86 | 7% | 81% | |
| 87 | 9% | 74% | |
| 88 | 6% | 65% | |
| 89 | 9% | 59% | |
| 90 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 91 | 5% | 41% | |
| 92 | 8% | 36% | |
| 93 | 6% | 27% | |
| 94 | 6% | 21% | |
| 95 | 4% | 16% | |
| 96 | 4% | 12% | |
| 97 | 3% | 8% | |
| 98 | 2% | 5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 80 | 4% | 96% | |
| 81 | 3% | 92% | |
| 82 | 6% | 89% | |
| 83 | 6% | 83% | |
| 84 | 6% | 77% | |
| 85 | 9% | 70% | |
| 86 | 7% | 62% | |
| 87 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 88 | 6% | 42% | |
| 89 | 5% | 36% | |
| 90 | 7% | 30% | |
| 91 | 6% | 23% | |
| 92 | 4% | 16% | Last Result |
| 93 | 4% | 12% | |
| 94 | 3% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 5% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 97 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKOP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25–29 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1071
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%