Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 28–30 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 28.3% | 26.8–29.8% | 26.4–30.2% | 26.0–30.6% | 25.3–31.4% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.6% | 18.3–21.0% | 18.0–21.4% | 17.7–21.7% | 17.1–22.4% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.4% | 17.2–19.7% | 16.8–20.1% | 16.5–20.5% | 15.9–21.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5–8.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.7–9.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5–8.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.7–9.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.1–8.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.2–7.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 100 | 94–105 | 92–106 | 91–107 | 89–110 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 69 | 64–73 | 63–75 | 62–76 | 60–79 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 65 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–74 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 26 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 21–31 | 20–32 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 26 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 21–31 | 20–32 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 19–28 | 18–30 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 21 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 | 16–27 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 20 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 15–26 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 92 | 2% | 97% | |
| 93 | 4% | 95% | |
| 94 | 4% | 91% | |
| 95 | 5% | 87% | |
| 96 | 7% | 82% | |
| 97 | 6% | 75% | |
| 98 | 11% | 68% | |
| 99 | 7% | 57% | |
| 100 | 10% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 101 | 8% | 40% | |
| 102 | 11% | 32% | |
| 103 | 5% | 21% | |
| 104 | 4% | 16% | |
| 105 | 4% | 12% | |
| 106 | 4% | 8% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 97% | |
| 64 | 4% | 94% | |
| 65 | 7% | 90% | |
| 66 | 9% | 83% | |
| 67 | 10% | 74% | |
| 68 | 9% | 64% | |
| 69 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 70 | 10% | 46% | |
| 71 | 11% | 36% | |
| 72 | 8% | 25% | |
| 73 | 8% | 16% | |
| 74 | 3% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 96% | |
| 60 | 6% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 88% | |
| 62 | 9% | 82% | |
| 63 | 7% | 73% | |
| 64 | 9% | 66% | |
| 65 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 40% | |
| 67 | 8% | 31% | |
| 68 | 7% | 23% | |
| 69 | 6% | 15% | |
| 70 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 5% | 97% | |
| 23 | 10% | 92% | |
| 24 | 15% | 82% | |
| 25 | 13% | 67% | |
| 26 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 37% | |
| 28 | 8% | 22% | |
| 29 | 7% | 14% | |
| 30 | 4% | 7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 22 | 4% | 97% | |
| 23 | 7% | 93% | |
| 24 | 13% | 86% | |
| 25 | 21% | 72% | |
| 26 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 27 | 13% | 38% | |
| 28 | 13% | 25% | Last Result |
| 29 | 6% | 13% | |
| 30 | 3% | 7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 5% | 96% | |
| 21 | 12% | 91% | |
| 22 | 16% | 79% | Last Result |
| 23 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 24 | 13% | 45% | |
| 25 | 14% | 32% | |
| 26 | 8% | 18% | |
| 27 | 5% | 10% | |
| 28 | 4% | 5% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 10% | 95% | |
| 19 | 17% | 85% | |
| 20 | 14% | 69% | |
| 21 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 39% | |
| 23 | 11% | 29% | |
| 24 | 12% | 18% | |
| 25 | 4% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 10% | 95% | |
| 18 | 14% | 86% | |
| 19 | 18% | 72% | |
| 20 | 21% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 21 | 14% | 33% | |
| 22 | 8% | 20% | |
| 23 | 7% | 11% | |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 192 | 100% | 187–198 | 184–199 | 183–201 | 180–204 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 190 | 100% | 184–196 | 183–197 | 181–199 | 178–202 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 174 | 177 | 73% | 171–183 | 169–184 | 168–186 | 165–189 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 175 | 172 | 27% | 166–178 | 165–180 | 163–181 | 160–184 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 166 | 3% | 160–172 | 159–173 | 157–175 | 154–178 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 164 | 1.0% | 158–170 | 157–172 | 155–173 | 152–176 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 157 | 0% | 151–162 | 150–165 | 148–166 | 145–169 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 147 | 146 | 0% | 140–152 | 139–153 | 138–155 | 135–158 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 146 | 0% | 141–152 | 139–154 | 138–155 | 135–158 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 134 | 0% | 128–139 | 126–141 | 125–143 | 123–145 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 134 | 0% | 128–139 | 126–141 | 125–142 | 123–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 125 | 0% | 120–131 | 118–133 | 117–134 | 114–137 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 121 | 0% | 115–126 | 113–128 | 112–129 | 109–132 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 114 | 0% | 109–119 | 107–121 | 105–122 | 103–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 110 | 0% | 105–116 | 103–117 | 102–119 | 100–121 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 112 | 108 | 0% | 103–113 | 101–115 | 100–116 | 97–119 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 100 | 0% | 94–105 | 92–106 | 91–107 | 89–110 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 91 | 0% | 86–96 | 84–97 | 83–98 | 81–101 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 92 | 88 | 0% | 83–93 | 82–95 | 81–96 | 78–99 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 184 | 2% | 97% | |
| 185 | 2% | 95% | |
| 186 | 2% | 93% | |
| 187 | 8% | 91% | |
| 188 | 10% | 82% | |
| 189 | 6% | 73% | |
| 190 | 5% | 66% | |
| 191 | 11% | 62% | |
| 192 | 6% | 50% | |
| 193 | 9% | 44% | Median |
| 194 | 7% | 34% | |
| 195 | 7% | 27% | Last Result |
| 196 | 4% | 20% | |
| 197 | 5% | 16% | |
| 198 | 4% | 11% | |
| 199 | 3% | 7% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 201 | 2% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 182 | 2% | 97% | |
| 183 | 2% | 95% | |
| 184 | 6% | 93% | |
| 185 | 4% | 87% | |
| 186 | 7% | 83% | |
| 187 | 6% | 76% | |
| 188 | 7% | 71% | |
| 189 | 9% | 63% | |
| 190 | 6% | 54% | |
| 191 | 9% | 47% | Median |
| 192 | 10% | 38% | |
| 193 | 7% | 28% | |
| 194 | 5% | 21% | |
| 195 | 5% | 16% | |
| 196 | 3% | 11% | |
| 197 | 4% | 8% | |
| 198 | 2% | 4% | |
| 199 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.5% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 168 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 169 | 2% | 97% | |
| 170 | 3% | 95% | |
| 171 | 4% | 92% | |
| 172 | 5% | 87% | |
| 173 | 4% | 83% | |
| 174 | 5% | 78% | Last Result |
| 175 | 8% | 73% | Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 65% | |
| 177 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 178 | 8% | 45% | |
| 179 | 8% | 37% | |
| 180 | 4% | 29% | |
| 181 | 9% | 25% | |
| 182 | 6% | 16% | |
| 183 | 4% | 10% | |
| 184 | 2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 4% | |
| 186 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 164 | 2% | 97% | |
| 165 | 2% | 96% | |
| 166 | 4% | 94% | |
| 167 | 6% | 90% | |
| 168 | 9% | 84% | |
| 169 | 4% | 75% | |
| 170 | 8% | 71% | |
| 171 | 8% | 63% | |
| 172 | 9% | 55% | |
| 173 | 10% | 46% | Median |
| 174 | 8% | 35% | |
| 175 | 5% | 27% | Last Result, Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 22% | |
| 177 | 5% | 17% | |
| 178 | 4% | 13% | |
| 179 | 3% | 8% | |
| 180 | 2% | 5% | |
| 181 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 158 | 2% | 97% | |
| 159 | 3% | 95% | |
| 160 | 3% | 92% | |
| 161 | 3% | 89% | |
| 162 | 8% | 86% | |
| 163 | 9% | 78% | |
| 164 | 9% | 69% | |
| 165 | 8% | 59% | |
| 166 | 6% | 52% | |
| 167 | 10% | 46% | Last Result, Median |
| 168 | 8% | 35% | |
| 169 | 7% | 27% | |
| 170 | 4% | 20% | |
| 171 | 4% | 16% | |
| 172 | 4% | 12% | |
| 173 | 3% | 8% | |
| 174 | 2% | 4% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 3% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 157 | 4% | 96% | |
| 158 | 4% | 92% | |
| 159 | 4% | 88% | |
| 160 | 6% | 84% | |
| 161 | 4% | 78% | |
| 162 | 8% | 73% | |
| 163 | 9% | 65% | |
| 164 | 7% | 56% | |
| 165 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 166 | 5% | 38% | |
| 167 | 8% | 34% | |
| 168 | 9% | 25% | |
| 169 | 4% | 16% | |
| 170 | 6% | 13% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 7% | |
| 172 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 173 | 2% | 4% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 148 | 2% | 98% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 150 | 3% | 96% | |
| 151 | 4% | 93% | |
| 152 | 5% | 89% | |
| 153 | 4% | 84% | |
| 154 | 7% | 80% | Last Result |
| 155 | 7% | 73% | |
| 156 | 9% | 66% | |
| 157 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 158 | 11% | 50% | |
| 159 | 5% | 38% | |
| 160 | 6% | 34% | |
| 161 | 10% | 27% | |
| 162 | 8% | 18% | |
| 163 | 2% | 9% | |
| 164 | 2% | 7% | |
| 165 | 2% | 5% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 139 | 3% | 96% | |
| 140 | 4% | 93% | |
| 141 | 4% | 89% | |
| 142 | 7% | 86% | |
| 143 | 6% | 79% | |
| 144 | 10% | 73% | |
| 145 | 9% | 63% | |
| 146 | 8% | 54% | |
| 147 | 9% | 46% | Last Result, Median |
| 148 | 8% | 37% | |
| 149 | 7% | 29% | |
| 150 | 4% | 22% | |
| 151 | 8% | 18% | |
| 152 | 2% | 11% | |
| 153 | 4% | 8% | |
| 154 | 2% | 5% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 138 | 2% | 98% | |
| 139 | 2% | 96% | |
| 140 | 3% | 94% | |
| 141 | 6% | 91% | |
| 142 | 6% | 85% | |
| 143 | 6% | 80% | |
| 144 | 9% | 74% | Last Result |
| 145 | 8% | 65% | |
| 146 | 11% | 57% | |
| 147 | 9% | 46% | Median |
| 148 | 8% | 36% | |
| 149 | 4% | 28% | |
| 150 | 7% | 24% | |
| 151 | 5% | 17% | |
| 152 | 3% | 12% | |
| 153 | 3% | 9% | |
| 154 | 3% | 6% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 125 | 1.5% | 98.5% | |
| 126 | 2% | 97% | |
| 127 | 3% | 95% | |
| 128 | 4% | 92% | |
| 129 | 5% | 88% | |
| 130 | 7% | 83% | |
| 131 | 7% | 76% | |
| 132 | 6% | 70% | |
| 133 | 12% | 63% | |
| 134 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 135 | 9% | 44% | |
| 136 | 9% | 35% | |
| 137 | 6% | 26% | |
| 138 | 7% | 20% | |
| 139 | 5% | 14% | |
| 140 | 2% | 9% | |
| 141 | 3% | 7% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 126 | 2% | 97% | |
| 127 | 3% | 95% | |
| 128 | 4% | 91% | |
| 129 | 5% | 88% | |
| 130 | 7% | 83% | |
| 131 | 6% | 76% | |
| 132 | 7% | 70% | Last Result |
| 133 | 9% | 62% | |
| 134 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 135 | 9% | 46% | |
| 136 | 12% | 37% | |
| 137 | 6% | 26% | |
| 138 | 5% | 20% | |
| 139 | 7% | 16% | |
| 140 | 2% | 8% | |
| 141 | 3% | 7% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 117 | 2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 3% | 96% | |
| 119 | 3% | 94% | |
| 120 | 4% | 91% | |
| 121 | 6% | 87% | |
| 122 | 6% | 81% | |
| 123 | 10% | 74% | |
| 124 | 10% | 64% | |
| 125 | 8% | 54% | |
| 126 | 8% | 47% | Median |
| 127 | 10% | 39% | |
| 128 | 6% | 29% | Last Result |
| 129 | 5% | 23% | |
| 130 | 5% | 18% | |
| 131 | 5% | 13% | |
| 132 | 2% | 8% | |
| 133 | 2% | 5% | |
| 134 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 112 | 2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 2% | 97% | |
| 114 | 3% | 94% | |
| 115 | 3% | 92% | |
| 116 | 7% | 88% | Last Result |
| 117 | 7% | 81% | |
| 118 | 8% | 75% | |
| 119 | 9% | 66% | |
| 120 | 6% | 57% | |
| 121 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 122 | 11% | 39% | |
| 123 | 5% | 28% | |
| 124 | 7% | 23% | |
| 125 | 4% | 16% | |
| 126 | 4% | 12% | |
| 127 | 3% | 8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 5% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 107 | 3% | 96% | |
| 108 | 3% | 94% | |
| 109 | 5% | 91% | |
| 110 | 6% | 86% | |
| 111 | 8% | 80% | |
| 112 | 8% | 72% | |
| 113 | 9% | 64% | |
| 114 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 115 | 8% | 46% | |
| 116 | 12% | 38% | |
| 117 | 6% | 26% | |
| 118 | 5% | 20% | |
| 119 | 6% | 15% | |
| 120 | 4% | 9% | |
| 121 | 2% | 6% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 3% | 97% | |
| 104 | 3% | 94% | |
| 105 | 3% | 92% | |
| 106 | 7% | 89% | |
| 107 | 6% | 81% | |
| 108 | 11% | 75% | |
| 109 | 6% | 64% | |
| 110 | 9% | 58% | |
| 111 | 9% | 49% | Median |
| 112 | 7% | 40% | |
| 113 | 13% | 33% | |
| 114 | 4% | 20% | |
| 115 | 4% | 16% | |
| 116 | 3% | 12% | |
| 117 | 4% | 8% | |
| 118 | 2% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98% | |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 4% | 94% | |
| 103 | 4% | 90% | |
| 104 | 6% | 86% | |
| 105 | 9% | 80% | |
| 106 | 9% | 71% | |
| 107 | 6% | 62% | |
| 108 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 109 | 8% | 47% | |
| 110 | 12% | 39% | |
| 111 | 6% | 27% | |
| 112 | 8% | 21% | Last Result |
| 113 | 4% | 13% | |
| 114 | 4% | 9% | |
| 115 | 2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 92 | 2% | 97% | |
| 93 | 4% | 95% | |
| 94 | 4% | 91% | |
| 95 | 5% | 87% | |
| 96 | 7% | 82% | |
| 97 | 6% | 75% | |
| 98 | 11% | 68% | |
| 99 | 7% | 57% | |
| 100 | 10% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 101 | 8% | 40% | |
| 102 | 11% | 32% | |
| 103 | 5% | 21% | |
| 104 | 4% | 16% | |
| 105 | 4% | 12% | |
| 106 | 4% | 8% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 83 | 2% | 98% | |
| 84 | 2% | 96% | |
| 85 | 3% | 94% | |
| 86 | 6% | 91% | |
| 87 | 6% | 85% | |
| 88 | 11% | 78% | |
| 89 | 5% | 68% | |
| 90 | 11% | 63% | |
| 91 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 92 | 11% | 42% | |
| 93 | 9% | 31% | |
| 94 | 7% | 22% | |
| 95 | 4% | 15% | |
| 96 | 3% | 11% | |
| 97 | 3% | 7% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 81 | 3% | 98% | |
| 82 | 2% | 95% | |
| 83 | 5% | 93% | |
| 84 | 5% | 88% | |
| 85 | 7% | 83% | |
| 86 | 9% | 76% | |
| 87 | 9% | 67% | |
| 88 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 89 | 8% | 46% | |
| 90 | 11% | 39% | |
| 91 | 9% | 28% | |
| 92 | 5% | 19% | Last Result |
| 93 | 6% | 14% | |
| 94 | 3% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 5% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 28–30 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%