Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 6–8 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.3% | 28.8–31.8% | 28.3–32.3% | 28.0–32.6% | 27.3–33.4% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 21.2% | 19.9–22.6% | 19.5–23.0% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.6–24.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.1% | 15.9–18.4% | 15.6–18.8% | 15.3–19.1% | 14.8–19.8% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.8% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.3–8.0% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.5–7.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.2–6.4% | 3.9–6.9% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 108 | 101–113 | 100–115 | 98–116 | 96–120 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 75 | 70–80 | 68–82 | 67–83 | 65–86 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 61 | 56–65 | 55–67 | 54–68 | 52–70 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 27 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 | 22–34 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 25 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 20–30 | 20–32 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 21 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–25 | 16–27 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 18 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 0–24 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 100 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 101 | 4% | 94% | |
| 102 | 4% | 90% | |
| 103 | 7% | 86% | |
| 104 | 7% | 79% | |
| 105 | 9% | 72% | |
| 106 | 7% | 63% | |
| 107 | 5% | 55% | |
| 108 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 109 | 9% | 40% | |
| 110 | 5% | 31% | |
| 111 | 7% | 26% | |
| 112 | 5% | 19% | |
| 113 | 5% | 14% | |
| 114 | 3% | 8% | |
| 115 | 2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 2% | 95% | |
| 70 | 6% | 93% | |
| 71 | 5% | 87% | |
| 72 | 6% | 81% | |
| 73 | 10% | 75% | |
| 74 | 9% | 65% | |
| 75 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 76 | 9% | 47% | |
| 77 | 9% | 38% | |
| 78 | 6% | 29% | |
| 79 | 9% | 23% | |
| 80 | 5% | 14% | |
| 81 | 2% | 9% | |
| 82 | 3% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 4% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 4% | 93% | |
| 57 | 10% | 90% | |
| 58 | 10% | 79% | |
| 59 | 9% | 69% | |
| 60 | 8% | 61% | |
| 61 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 62 | 9% | 42% | |
| 63 | 10% | 33% | |
| 64 | 6% | 23% | |
| 65 | 8% | 17% | |
| 66 | 3% | 9% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 24 | 6% | 97% | |
| 25 | 8% | 90% | |
| 26 | 15% | 83% | |
| 27 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 49% | Last Result |
| 29 | 11% | 38% | |
| 30 | 12% | 28% | |
| 31 | 7% | 15% | |
| 32 | 3% | 8% | |
| 33 | 3% | 5% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 2% | 97% | |
| 22 | 8% | 95% | |
| 23 | 12% | 87% | |
| 24 | 16% | 75% | |
| 25 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 44% | |
| 27 | 10% | 27% | |
| 28 | 7% | 17% | |
| 29 | 6% | 10% | |
| 30 | 2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98% | |
| 18 | 5% | 95% | |
| 19 | 12% | 90% | |
| 20 | 23% | 77% | |
| 21 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 22 | 11% | 33% | Last Result |
| 23 | 8% | 22% | |
| 24 | 6% | 14% | |
| 25 | 6% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98% | |
| 16 | 10% | 95% | |
| 17 | 18% | 85% | |
| 18 | 19% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 48% | |
| 20 | 15% | 36% | Last Result |
| 21 | 13% | 21% | |
| 22 | 5% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 80% | |
| 2 | 0% | 80% | |
| 3 | 0% | 80% | |
| 4 | 0% | 80% | |
| 5 | 0% | 80% | |
| 6 | 0% | 80% | |
| 7 | 0% | 80% | |
| 8 | 0% | 80% | |
| 9 | 0% | 80% | |
| 10 | 0% | 80% | |
| 11 | 0% | 80% | |
| 12 | 0% | 80% | |
| 13 | 0% | 80% | |
| 14 | 5% | 80% | |
| 15 | 17% | 75% | |
| 16 | 23% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 15% | 36% | |
| 18 | 13% | 21% | |
| 19 | 6% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 193 | 100% | 186–201 | 185–203 | 183–205 | 180–210 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 193 | 99.9% | 185–199 | 183–200 | 180–202 | 176–205 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 174 | 175 | 53% | 169–183 | 167–185 | 165–188 | 162–191 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 175 | 174 | 47% | 166–180 | 164–182 | 161–184 | 158–187 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 168 | 13% | 162–176 | 160–177 | 158–179 | 155–183 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 165 | 2% | 156–171 | 154–173 | 152–174 | 148–177 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 156 | 0.1% | 150–164 | 149–166 | 147–169 | 144–173 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 149 | 0% | 140–156 | 138–157 | 135–159 | 132–162 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 147 | 147 | 0% | 137–153 | 135–155 | 133–156 | 130–159 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 136 | 0% | 129–142 | 128–145 | 127–146 | 124–151 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 135 | 0% | 129–141 | 127–144 | 125–145 | 123–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 126 | 0% | 118–132 | 117–133 | 116–135 | 110–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 122 | 0% | 111–128 | 109–129 | 107–131 | 104–134 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 107 | 0% | 101–113 | 99–115 | 98–116 | 96–120 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 108 | 0% | 101–113 | 100–115 | 98–116 | 96–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 105 | 0% | 98–111 | 97–112 | 95–114 | 89–117 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 112 | 100 | 0% | 94–107 | 93–108 | 91–109 | 85–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 86 | 0% | 80–91 | 79–93 | 78–95 | 76–98 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 92 | 82 | 0% | 77–87 | 75–89 | 74–90 | 72–93 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 183 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 185 | 3% | 96% | |
| 186 | 4% | 93% | |
| 187 | 4% | 89% | |
| 188 | 6% | 85% | |
| 189 | 3% | 79% | |
| 190 | 9% | 76% | |
| 191 | 9% | 67% | |
| 192 | 4% | 58% | |
| 193 | 9% | 53% | |
| 194 | 5% | 44% | Median |
| 195 | 7% | 39% | |
| 196 | 6% | 32% | |
| 197 | 3% | 26% | |
| 198 | 4% | 23% | |
| 199 | 4% | 19% | |
| 200 | 4% | 15% | |
| 201 | 2% | 11% | Last Result |
| 202 | 4% | 9% | |
| 203 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 204 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 205 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 206 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 208 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 182 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 184 | 2% | 94% | |
| 185 | 3% | 92% | |
| 186 | 4% | 89% | |
| 187 | 7% | 85% | |
| 188 | 5% | 78% | |
| 189 | 5% | 72% | |
| 190 | 5% | 67% | |
| 191 | 6% | 62% | |
| 192 | 5% | 56% | |
| 193 | 8% | 51% | |
| 194 | 8% | 43% | Median |
| 195 | 7% | 34% | Last Result |
| 196 | 5% | 28% | |
| 197 | 7% | 22% | |
| 198 | 3% | 15% | |
| 199 | 6% | 13% | |
| 200 | 3% | 7% | |
| 201 | 2% | 5% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 167 | 2% | 95% | |
| 168 | 3% | 93% | |
| 169 | 4% | 90% | |
| 170 | 7% | 86% | |
| 171 | 6% | 79% | |
| 172 | 7% | 73% | |
| 173 | 6% | 66% | |
| 174 | 7% | 60% | Last Result |
| 175 | 7% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 46% | |
| 177 | 6% | 41% | |
| 178 | 5% | 35% | |
| 179 | 6% | 30% | |
| 180 | 4% | 24% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 182 | 7% | 18% | |
| 183 | 4% | 11% | |
| 184 | 2% | 8% | |
| 185 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 164 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 165 | 2% | 94% | |
| 166 | 4% | 92% | |
| 167 | 7% | 89% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 82% | |
| 169 | 4% | 81% | |
| 170 | 6% | 76% | |
| 171 | 5% | 70% | |
| 172 | 6% | 65% | |
| 173 | 5% | 59% | |
| 174 | 7% | 54% | |
| 175 | 7% | 47% | Last Result, Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 40% | Median |
| 177 | 7% | 34% | |
| 178 | 6% | 27% | |
| 179 | 7% | 21% | |
| 180 | 4% | 14% | |
| 181 | 3% | 10% | |
| 182 | 2% | 7% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 160 | 3% | 95% | |
| 161 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 162 | 5% | 91% | |
| 163 | 6% | 86% | |
| 164 | 4% | 80% | |
| 165 | 12% | 75% | |
| 166 | 4% | 64% | |
| 167 | 7% | 60% | |
| 168 | 7% | 53% | |
| 169 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 170 | 6% | 39% | Last Result |
| 171 | 8% | 33% | |
| 172 | 5% | 25% | |
| 173 | 4% | 20% | |
| 174 | 3% | 15% | |
| 175 | 2% | 13% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 10% | |
| 177 | 2% | 6% | |
| 178 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 154 | 2% | 96% | |
| 155 | 2% | 94% | |
| 156 | 5% | 92% | |
| 157 | 2% | 87% | |
| 158 | 4% | 86% | |
| 159 | 3% | 82% | |
| 160 | 6% | 79% | |
| 161 | 3% | 73% | |
| 162 | 5% | 70% | |
| 163 | 7% | 64% | |
| 164 | 5% | 57% | |
| 165 | 5% | 52% | |
| 166 | 6% | 48% | |
| 167 | 10% | 42% | Last Result, Median |
| 168 | 6% | 32% | |
| 169 | 8% | 26% | |
| 170 | 4% | 18% | |
| 171 | 6% | 14% | |
| 172 | 2% | 8% | |
| 173 | 2% | 6% | |
| 174 | 2% | 4% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 148 | 2% | 97% | |
| 149 | 3% | 95% | |
| 150 | 6% | 93% | |
| 151 | 3% | 87% | |
| 152 | 7% | 85% | |
| 153 | 5% | 78% | |
| 154 | 7% | 72% | Last Result |
| 155 | 8% | 66% | |
| 156 | 8% | 57% | |
| 157 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 158 | 6% | 44% | |
| 159 | 5% | 38% | |
| 160 | 5% | 33% | |
| 161 | 5% | 28% | |
| 162 | 7% | 22% | |
| 163 | 4% | 15% | |
| 164 | 3% | 11% | |
| 165 | 2% | 8% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 167 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 138 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 139 | 3% | 94% | |
| 140 | 4% | 91% | |
| 141 | 4% | 87% | |
| 142 | 2% | 83% | |
| 143 | 2% | 81% | |
| 144 | 4% | 79% | Last Result |
| 145 | 4% | 75% | |
| 146 | 5% | 72% | |
| 147 | 5% | 67% | |
| 148 | 9% | 62% | |
| 149 | 7% | 53% | |
| 150 | 8% | 46% | |
| 151 | 7% | 38% | Median |
| 152 | 6% | 30% | |
| 153 | 3% | 25% | |
| 154 | 5% | 22% | |
| 155 | 7% | 17% | |
| 156 | 3% | 10% | |
| 157 | 2% | 7% | |
| 158 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 159 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 134 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 135 | 2% | 96% | |
| 136 | 4% | 94% | |
| 137 | 4% | 90% | |
| 138 | 2% | 87% | |
| 139 | 2% | 84% | |
| 140 | 2% | 82% | |
| 141 | 2% | 80% | |
| 142 | 5% | 78% | |
| 143 | 5% | 73% | |
| 144 | 6% | 68% | |
| 145 | 6% | 61% | |
| 146 | 4% | 56% | |
| 147 | 8% | 52% | Last Result |
| 148 | 5% | 43% | |
| 149 | 6% | 38% | Median |
| 150 | 9% | 32% | |
| 151 | 8% | 23% | |
| 152 | 3% | 15% | |
| 153 | 5% | 12% | |
| 154 | 2% | 7% | |
| 155 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 127 | 2% | 98% | |
| 128 | 2% | 96% | |
| 129 | 4% | 94% | |
| 130 | 4% | 89% | |
| 131 | 6% | 85% | |
| 132 | 6% | 79% | Last Result |
| 133 | 6% | 73% | |
| 134 | 6% | 67% | |
| 135 | 8% | 61% | |
| 136 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 137 | 6% | 45% | |
| 138 | 6% | 39% | |
| 139 | 6% | 32% | |
| 140 | 7% | 26% | |
| 141 | 5% | 20% | |
| 142 | 5% | 14% | |
| 143 | 2% | 9% | |
| 144 | 2% | 7% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 125 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 126 | 2% | 97% | |
| 127 | 2% | 95% | |
| 128 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 91% | |
| 130 | 5% | 88% | |
| 131 | 9% | 83% | |
| 132 | 9% | 74% | |
| 133 | 6% | 65% | |
| 134 | 5% | 59% | |
| 135 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 136 | 6% | 45% | |
| 137 | 4% | 39% | |
| 138 | 5% | 35% | |
| 139 | 10% | 30% | |
| 140 | 6% | 20% | |
| 141 | 5% | 14% | |
| 142 | 2% | 9% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 145 | 2% | 5% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 6% | 94% | |
| 119 | 2% | 89% | |
| 120 | 6% | 86% | |
| 121 | 7% | 81% | |
| 122 | 5% | 74% | |
| 123 | 4% | 68% | |
| 124 | 5% | 64% | |
| 125 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 126 | 9% | 51% | |
| 127 | 7% | 42% | |
| 128 | 7% | 35% | |
| 129 | 7% | 28% | |
| 130 | 5% | 22% | |
| 131 | 4% | 17% | |
| 132 | 4% | 13% | |
| 133 | 4% | 9% | |
| 134 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 135 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 97% | |
| 109 | 3% | 96% | |
| 110 | 2% | 92% | |
| 111 | 4% | 90% | |
| 112 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 113 | 2% | 85% | |
| 114 | 3% | 83% | |
| 115 | 2% | 80% | |
| 116 | 3% | 79% | Last Result |
| 117 | 3% | 75% | |
| 118 | 3% | 72% | |
| 119 | 5% | 69% | |
| 120 | 6% | 65% | |
| 121 | 9% | 59% | |
| 122 | 7% | 50% | |
| 123 | 7% | 43% | |
| 124 | 8% | 36% | Median |
| 125 | 6% | 28% | |
| 126 | 3% | 22% | |
| 127 | 7% | 19% | |
| 128 | 3% | 12% | |
| 129 | 5% | 10% | |
| 130 | 2% | 5% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 99 | 3% | 97% | |
| 100 | 3% | 94% | |
| 101 | 5% | 91% | |
| 102 | 4% | 86% | |
| 103 | 10% | 82% | |
| 104 | 4% | 72% | |
| 105 | 8% | 68% | |
| 106 | 6% | 60% | |
| 107 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 108 | 9% | 46% | |
| 109 | 6% | 37% | |
| 110 | 9% | 31% | |
| 111 | 3% | 22% | |
| 112 | 9% | 19% | |
| 113 | 3% | 10% | |
| 114 | 2% | 7% | |
| 115 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 116 | 2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 100 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 101 | 4% | 94% | |
| 102 | 4% | 90% | |
| 103 | 7% | 86% | |
| 104 | 7% | 79% | |
| 105 | 9% | 72% | |
| 106 | 7% | 63% | |
| 107 | 5% | 55% | |
| 108 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 109 | 9% | 40% | |
| 110 | 5% | 31% | |
| 111 | 7% | 26% | |
| 112 | 5% | 19% | |
| 113 | 5% | 14% | |
| 114 | 3% | 8% | |
| 115 | 2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 96% | |
| 98 | 5% | 93% | |
| 99 | 4% | 88% | |
| 100 | 8% | 85% | |
| 101 | 6% | 76% | |
| 102 | 6% | 70% | |
| 103 | 5% | 64% | |
| 104 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 105 | 7% | 50% | |
| 106 | 10% | 43% | |
| 107 | 6% | 34% | |
| 108 | 7% | 27% | |
| 109 | 5% | 21% | |
| 110 | 4% | 16% | |
| 111 | 4% | 12% | |
| 112 | 4% | 8% | |
| 113 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 92 | 2% | 97% | |
| 93 | 2% | 96% | |
| 94 | 7% | 94% | |
| 95 | 4% | 86% | |
| 96 | 5% | 82% | |
| 97 | 9% | 77% | |
| 98 | 5% | 69% | |
| 99 | 8% | 64% | |
| 100 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 101 | 8% | 50% | |
| 102 | 6% | 41% | |
| 103 | 11% | 36% | |
| 104 | 7% | 25% | |
| 105 | 5% | 18% | |
| 106 | 3% | 13% | |
| 107 | 5% | 10% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 78 | 2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 3% | 97% | |
| 80 | 4% | 94% | |
| 81 | 6% | 90% | |
| 82 | 6% | 84% | |
| 83 | 9% | 77% | |
| 84 | 8% | 69% | |
| 85 | 7% | 61% | |
| 86 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 87 | 10% | 47% | |
| 88 | 8% | 37% | |
| 89 | 8% | 29% | |
| 90 | 7% | 21% | |
| 91 | 6% | 14% | |
| 92 | 3% | 8% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 75 | 3% | 97% | |
| 76 | 4% | 95% | |
| 77 | 10% | 91% | |
| 78 | 4% | 81% | |
| 79 | 9% | 76% | |
| 80 | 8% | 67% | |
| 81 | 8% | 59% | |
| 82 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 83 | 9% | 43% | |
| 84 | 7% | 34% | |
| 85 | 6% | 28% | |
| 86 | 9% | 21% | |
| 87 | 4% | 12% | |
| 88 | 2% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 6% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 6–8 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.51%