Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 1–9 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.5% | 28.3–30.8% | 28.0–31.1% | 27.7–31.4% | 27.1–32.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 20.5% | 19.5–21.6% | 19.2–21.9% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.4–22.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.7% | 17.7–19.8% | 17.4–20.1% | 17.2–20.3% | 16.7–20.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.5% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2–7.6% | 6.1–7.8% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.6–8.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4–5.5% | 4.2–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 104 | 100–108 | 98–109 | 97–111 | 96–113 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 72 | 68–76 | 67–78 | 66–78 | 65–80 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 66 | 62–69 | 62–71 | 60–72 | 59–74 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 28 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 24 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–28 | 20–29 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–24 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 0–22 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 98 | 3% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 95% | |
| 100 | 6% | 90% | Last Result |
| 101 | 11% | 84% | |
| 102 | 8% | 73% | |
| 103 | 12% | 65% | |
| 104 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 40% | |
| 106 | 11% | 31% | |
| 107 | 6% | 19% | |
| 108 | 5% | 13% | |
| 109 | 4% | 8% | |
| 110 | 2% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 95% | |
| 69 | 10% | 89% | |
| 70 | 6% | 79% | |
| 71 | 16% | 73% | |
| 72 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 73 | 13% | 47% | |
| 74 | 16% | 34% | |
| 75 | 6% | 18% | |
| 76 | 4% | 12% | |
| 77 | 2% | 7% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 9% | 95% | |
| 63 | 6% | 86% | |
| 64 | 10% | 80% | |
| 65 | 12% | 69% | |
| 66 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 67 | 19% | 44% | |
| 68 | 6% | 25% | |
| 69 | 10% | 19% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 7% | 96% | |
| 26 | 13% | 89% | |
| 27 | 20% | 76% | |
| 28 | 16% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 18% | 40% | |
| 30 | 12% | 22% | |
| 31 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 22 | 10% | 95% | |
| 23 | 22% | 85% | |
| 24 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 25 | 18% | 44% | |
| 26 | 14% | 26% | |
| 27 | 7% | 12% | |
| 28 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 29 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 6% | 98% | |
| 17 | 13% | 92% | |
| 18 | 21% | 79% | |
| 19 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 20 | 21% | 37% | |
| 21 | 10% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 6% | 98% | Last Result |
| 17 | 13% | 92% | |
| 18 | 12% | 79% | |
| 19 | 35% | 67% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 31% | |
| 21 | 7% | 12% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 7% | 97% | |
| 16 | 20% | 90% | |
| 17 | 24% | 71% | Median |
| 18 | 24% | 47% | |
| 19 | 14% | 22% | |
| 20 | 6% | 9% | Last Result |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 198 | 100% | 193–202 | 192–204 | 191–205 | 188–209 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 192 | 100% | 188–197 | 186–198 | 184–200 | 181–202 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 175 | 175 | 51% | 170–180 | 169–181 | 168–182 | 166–186 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 174 | 174 | 49% | 169–179 | 168–180 | 167–181 | 163–183 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 170 | 10% | 165–174 | 163–176 | 162–177 | 160–181 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 168 | 4% | 163–173 | 162–174 | 160–175 | 156–177 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 157 | 0% | 152–161 | 151–163 | 149–165 | 147–168 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 147 | 150 | 0% | 146–155 | 145–157 | 144–158 | 141–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 147 | 0% | 143–152 | 141–153 | 140–154 | 138–157 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 138 | 0% | 133–142 | 131–144 | 131–145 | 129–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 130 | 0% | 126–134 | 124–136 | 122–137 | 117–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 128 | 0% | 124–133 | 122–134 | 121–136 | 119–138 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 123 | 0% | 118–127 | 117–128 | 116–130 | 113–133 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 112 | 0% | 108–117 | 107–118 | 106–120 | 104–122 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 111 | 0% | 107–116 | 105–117 | 103–118 | 98–120 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 104 | 0% | 100–108 | 98–109 | 97–111 | 96–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 112 | 102 | 0% | 98–106 | 96–107 | 95–108 | 87–111 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 94 | 0% | 90–98 | 89–100 | 87–101 | 86–102 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 92 | 85 | 0% | 81–89 | 80–90 | 79–91 | 76–93 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 186 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 191 | 2% | 98% | |
| 192 | 5% | 95% | |
| 193 | 5% | 90% | |
| 194 | 5% | 85% | |
| 195 | 6% | 81% | |
| 196 | 9% | 75% | |
| 197 | 13% | 66% | |
| 198 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 199 | 15% | 41% | |
| 200 | 8% | 25% | |
| 201 | 5% | 17% | Last Result |
| 202 | 3% | 12% | |
| 203 | 2% | 9% | |
| 204 | 3% | 7% | |
| 205 | 2% | 4% | |
| 206 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 185 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 186 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 187 | 3% | 95% | |
| 188 | 6% | 91% | |
| 189 | 7% | 86% | |
| 190 | 18% | 78% | |
| 191 | 8% | 60% | |
| 192 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 193 | 11% | 45% | |
| 194 | 6% | 35% | |
| 195 | 11% | 29% | Last Result |
| 196 | 5% | 18% | |
| 197 | 5% | 13% | |
| 198 | 4% | 8% | |
| 199 | 2% | 5% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 168 | 2% | 98% | |
| 169 | 3% | 96% | |
| 170 | 4% | 94% | |
| 171 | 4% | 89% | |
| 172 | 14% | 86% | |
| 173 | 10% | 72% | |
| 174 | 11% | 62% | |
| 175 | 12% | 51% | Last Result, Median, Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 39% | |
| 177 | 8% | 33% | |
| 178 | 6% | 24% | |
| 179 | 7% | 18% | |
| 180 | 4% | 11% | |
| 181 | 2% | 7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 5% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 2% | 95% | |
| 169 | 4% | 93% | |
| 170 | 7% | 89% | |
| 171 | 6% | 82% | |
| 172 | 8% | 76% | |
| 173 | 6% | 67% | |
| 174 | 12% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 175 | 11% | 49% | Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 38% | |
| 177 | 14% | 28% | |
| 178 | 4% | 14% | |
| 179 | 4% | 11% | |
| 180 | 3% | 6% | |
| 181 | 2% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 163 | 3% | 97% | |
| 164 | 3% | 95% | |
| 165 | 6% | 92% | |
| 166 | 6% | 86% | |
| 167 | 7% | 80% | |
| 168 | 11% | 74% | |
| 169 | 7% | 62% | |
| 170 | 16% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 171 | 7% | 39% | |
| 172 | 12% | 31% | |
| 173 | 4% | 19% | |
| 174 | 5% | 15% | |
| 175 | 4% | 10% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 6% | |
| 177 | 2% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 160 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 162 | 4% | 96% | |
| 163 | 3% | 92% | |
| 164 | 7% | 89% | |
| 165 | 9% | 82% | |
| 166 | 11% | 73% | |
| 167 | 9% | 62% | Last Result |
| 168 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 169 | 7% | 40% | |
| 170 | 8% | 33% | |
| 171 | 10% | 26% | |
| 172 | 5% | 15% | |
| 173 | 3% | 10% | |
| 174 | 3% | 7% | |
| 175 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 150 | 2% | 97% | |
| 151 | 4% | 95% | |
| 152 | 5% | 92% | |
| 153 | 5% | 87% | |
| 154 | 11% | 82% | Last Result |
| 155 | 6% | 71% | |
| 156 | 11% | 65% | |
| 157 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 158 | 8% | 47% | |
| 159 | 18% | 40% | |
| 160 | 7% | 22% | |
| 161 | 6% | 14% | |
| 162 | 3% | 9% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 164 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 144 | 2% | 98% | |
| 145 | 3% | 96% | |
| 146 | 5% | 92% | |
| 147 | 6% | 87% | Last Result |
| 148 | 7% | 82% | |
| 149 | 18% | 74% | |
| 150 | 8% | 56% | |
| 151 | 8% | 47% | Median |
| 152 | 11% | 40% | |
| 153 | 7% | 29% | |
| 154 | 7% | 22% | |
| 155 | 6% | 15% | |
| 156 | 4% | 9% | |
| 157 | 2% | 6% | |
| 158 | 2% | 4% | |
| 159 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 2% | 98% | |
| 141 | 3% | 96% | |
| 142 | 3% | 94% | |
| 143 | 10% | 91% | |
| 144 | 5% | 81% | Last Result |
| 145 | 8% | 76% | |
| 146 | 15% | 68% | |
| 147 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 148 | 10% | 42% | |
| 149 | 9% | 32% | |
| 150 | 7% | 23% | |
| 151 | 6% | 16% | |
| 152 | 5% | 11% | |
| 153 | 2% | 6% | |
| 154 | 2% | 4% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 131 | 3% | 98% | |
| 132 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 133 | 5% | 92% | |
| 134 | 4% | 88% | |
| 135 | 9% | 83% | |
| 136 | 8% | 75% | |
| 137 | 8% | 66% | |
| 138 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 139 | 10% | 48% | |
| 140 | 15% | 38% | |
| 141 | 8% | 23% | |
| 142 | 5% | 15% | |
| 143 | 3% | 10% | |
| 144 | 2% | 7% | |
| 145 | 2% | 5% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 97% | |
| 124 | 2% | 95% | |
| 125 | 3% | 93% | |
| 126 | 5% | 90% | |
| 127 | 8% | 85% | |
| 128 | 9% | 77% | |
| 129 | 15% | 68% | |
| 130 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 131 | 11% | 43% | |
| 132 | 8% | 32% | |
| 133 | 6% | 24% | |
| 134 | 9% | 19% | |
| 135 | 4% | 9% | |
| 136 | 3% | 6% | |
| 137 | 2% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 122 | 2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 3% | 95% | |
| 124 | 9% | 92% | |
| 125 | 5% | 83% | |
| 126 | 9% | 78% | |
| 127 | 12% | 69% | |
| 128 | 13% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 129 | 13% | 44% | |
| 130 | 7% | 31% | |
| 131 | 6% | 24% | |
| 132 | 7% | 17% | |
| 133 | 5% | 11% | |
| 134 | 2% | 6% | |
| 135 | 2% | 4% | |
| 136 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 117 | 3% | 96% | |
| 118 | 4% | 92% | |
| 119 | 8% | 89% | |
| 120 | 10% | 81% | |
| 121 | 7% | 71% | |
| 122 | 14% | 64% | |
| 123 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 124 | 9% | 39% | |
| 125 | 9% | 30% | |
| 126 | 7% | 21% | |
| 127 | 6% | 14% | |
| 128 | 3% | 8% | |
| 129 | 2% | 5% | |
| 130 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 3% | 97% | |
| 108 | 5% | 94% | |
| 109 | 8% | 89% | |
| 110 | 8% | 81% | |
| 111 | 9% | 73% | |
| 112 | 15% | 64% | |
| 113 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 114 | 7% | 38% | |
| 115 | 10% | 31% | |
| 116 | 9% | 22% | |
| 117 | 3% | 12% | |
| 118 | 4% | 9% | |
| 119 | 2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 104 | 2% | 97% | |
| 105 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 106 | 2% | 95% | |
| 107 | 5% | 92% | |
| 108 | 6% | 87% | |
| 109 | 14% | 81% | |
| 110 | 9% | 67% | |
| 111 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 112 | 12% | 44% | |
| 113 | 7% | 32% | |
| 114 | 11% | 25% | |
| 115 | 4% | 15% | |
| 116 | 5% | 10% | |
| 117 | 2% | 6% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 98 | 3% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 95% | |
| 100 | 6% | 90% | Last Result |
| 101 | 11% | 84% | |
| 102 | 8% | 73% | |
| 103 | 12% | 65% | |
| 104 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 40% | |
| 106 | 11% | 31% | |
| 107 | 6% | 19% | |
| 108 | 5% | 13% | |
| 109 | 4% | 8% | |
| 110 | 2% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 96 | 3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 94% | |
| 98 | 7% | 92% | |
| 99 | 9% | 85% | |
| 100 | 8% | 76% | |
| 101 | 10% | 68% | |
| 102 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 103 | 13% | 47% | |
| 104 | 10% | 34% | |
| 105 | 11% | 24% | |
| 106 | 6% | 13% | |
| 107 | 3% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 89 | 2% | 96% | |
| 90 | 8% | 94% | |
| 91 | 10% | 85% | |
| 92 | 12% | 75% | |
| 93 | 9% | 63% | |
| 94 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 95 | 12% | 43% | |
| 96 | 13% | 31% | |
| 97 | 6% | 17% | |
| 98 | 3% | 12% | |
| 99 | 3% | 8% | |
| 100 | 3% | 5% | |
| 101 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 5% | 96% | |
| 81 | 7% | 91% | |
| 82 | 9% | 84% | |
| 83 | 11% | 75% | |
| 84 | 11% | 64% | |
| 85 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 86 | 12% | 42% | |
| 87 | 12% | 31% | |
| 88 | 9% | 19% | |
| 89 | 4% | 10% | |
| 90 | 3% | 6% | |
| 91 | 2% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 93 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 1–9 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2321
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.73%