Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 2–9 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23.2% | 27.9% | 26.1–29.8% | 25.6–30.3% | 25.2–30.7% | 24.4–31.6% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 29.6% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| Les Engagés | 20.6% | 19.4% | 17.8–21.1% | 17.4–21.5% | 17.0–21.9% | 16.3–22.8% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 12.1% | 17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.2% |
| Ecolo | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| Chez Nous | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| DéFI | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 19 | 23 | 22–25 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 26 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 13–20 |
| Les Engagés | 17 | 15 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 8 | 14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Ecolo | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 1–8 |
| Chez Nous | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 20 | 3% | 98% | |
| 21 | 5% | 95% | |
| 22 | 8% | 90% | |
| 23 | 47% | 83% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 35% | |
| 25 | 12% | 18% | |
| 26 | 5% | 6% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 16 | 6% | 95% | |
| 17 | 49% | 89% | Median |
| 18 | 26% | 40% | |
| 19 | 9% | 14% | |
| 20 | 5% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 72% | 96% | Median |
| 16 | 13% | 24% | |
| 17 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 18 | 4% | 8% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 11% | 95% | |
| 13 | 11% | 84% | |
| 14 | 60% | 73% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 12% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 5% | 97% | |
| 4 | 8% | 92% | |
| 5 | 70% | 84% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 10% | 14% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 2 | 17% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 44 | 52 | 100% | 50–54 | 50–55 | 49–55 | 48–57 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 50 | 46 | 100% | 44–47 | 43–48 | 42–48 | 41–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 41 | 43 | 100% | 42–45 | 41–46 | 41–47 | 40–48 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 32 | 42 | 99.4% | 40–43 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 45 | 41 | 97% | 39–42 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 36 | 38 | 86% | 37–41 | 36–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 48 | 38 | 55% | 36–40 | 35–41 | 35–41 | 34–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 27 | 37 | 35% | 35–39 | 34–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 43 | 33 | 0.3% | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 24 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 25–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 31 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 13 | 19 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 7% | 96% | |
| 51 | 13% | 90% | |
| 52 | 28% | 76% | Median |
| 53 | 34% | 48% | |
| 54 | 7% | 14% | |
| 55 | 5% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 4% | 97% | |
| 44 | 9% | 93% | |
| 45 | 24% | 83% | Median |
| 46 | 43% | 59% | |
| 47 | 8% | 16% | |
| 48 | 6% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 42 | 11% | 94% | |
| 43 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 44 | 30% | 49% | |
| 45 | 10% | 19% | |
| 46 | 7% | 10% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 97% | |
| 40 | 10% | 91% | |
| 41 | 15% | 82% | |
| 42 | 33% | 66% | Median |
| 43 | 27% | 34% | |
| 44 | 4% | 7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 93% | |
| 40 | 27% | 85% | Median |
| 41 | 36% | 58% | |
| 42 | 12% | 22% | |
| 43 | 7% | 10% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 37 | 8% | 94% | |
| 38 | 36% | 86% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 26% | 50% | |
| 40 | 13% | 24% | |
| 41 | 7% | 11% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 36 | 10% | 94% | |
| 37 | 29% | 83% | Median |
| 38 | 33% | 55% | Majority |
| 39 | 10% | 22% | |
| 40 | 6% | 12% | |
| 41 | 4% | 6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 6% | 97% | |
| 35 | 8% | 91% | |
| 36 | 13% | 83% | |
| 37 | 36% | 70% | Median |
| 38 | 24% | 35% | Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 10% | |
| 40 | 4% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 7% | 96% | |
| 32 | 34% | 89% | Median |
| 33 | 32% | 55% | |
| 34 | 11% | 24% | |
| 35 | 7% | 13% | |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 6% | 94% | |
| 27 | 11% | 88% | |
| 28 | 41% | 77% | Median |
| 29 | 21% | 36% | |
| 30 | 9% | 14% | |
| 31 | 5% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 6% | 97% | |
| 21 | 10% | 91% | |
| 22 | 39% | 80% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 41% | |
| 24 | 8% | 14% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 7% | 98.5% | |
| 17 | 13% | 92% | |
| 18 | 16% | 79% | |
| 19 | 46% | 63% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 17% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 2–9 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.90%