Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 1–9 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23.2% | 29.0% | 27.3–30.9% | 26.7–31.5% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.5–32.9% |
| Les Engagés | 20.6% | 20.2% | 18.6–21.9% | 18.2–22.3% | 17.8–22.8% | 17.1–23.6% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 29.6% | 20.1% | 18.5–21.8% | 18.1–22.2% | 17.7–22.7% | 17.0–23.5% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 12.1% | 16.8% | 15.3–18.4% | 14.9–18.8% | 14.6–19.2% | 13.9–20.0% |
| Ecolo | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| Chez Nous | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| DéFI | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 19 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 19–28 |
| Les Engagés | 17 | 15 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 26 | 17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 8 | 14 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Ecolo | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Chez Nous | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 3% | 98% | |
| 22 | 4% | 95% | |
| 23 | 39% | 92% | |
| 24 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 25 | 14% | 35% | |
| 26 | 16% | 21% | |
| 27 | 4% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 59% | 98.5% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 39% | |
| 17 | 6% | 22% | Last Result |
| 18 | 7% | 15% | |
| 19 | 5% | 9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 95% | |
| 15 | 15% | 90% | |
| 16 | 12% | 74% | |
| 17 | 50% | 62% | Median |
| 18 | 9% | 12% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 16% | 92% | |
| 13 | 12% | 76% | |
| 14 | 57% | 64% | Median |
| 15 | 7% | 7% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 5% | 98% | |
| 4 | 5% | 93% | |
| 5 | 69% | 88% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 15% | 19% | |
| 7 | 3% | 4% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 18% | |
| 2 | 16% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 44 | 53 | 100% | 51–55 | 51–56 | 50–57 | 49–58 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 41 | 44 | 100% | 43–47 | 43–48 | 42–48 | 41–50 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 50 | 46 | 100% | 43–47 | 42–48 | 42–48 | 40–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 32 | 42 | 99.8% | 40–45 | 39–45 | 39–45 | 38–47 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 36 | 40 | 97% | 38–42 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 45 | 40 | 95% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–43 | 35–44 |
| Les Engagés – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 48 | 37 | 46% | 35–39 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 27 | 37 | 45% | 35–40 | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 |
| Les Engagés – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 32 | 0.1% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 24 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 24–33 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 31 | 22 | 0% | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 13 | 19 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 14–22 |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 8% | 97% | |
| 52 | 20% | 88% | |
| 53 | 33% | 69% | Median |
| 54 | 11% | 35% | |
| 55 | 15% | 24% | |
| 56 | 6% | 9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 42 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 43 | 16% | 97% | |
| 44 | 33% | 80% | Median |
| 45 | 12% | 48% | |
| 46 | 19% | 36% | |
| 47 | 10% | 17% | |
| 48 | 5% | 7% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 6% | 94% | |
| 44 | 11% | 89% | |
| 45 | 23% | 77% | |
| 46 | 36% | 54% | Median |
| 47 | 10% | 18% | |
| 48 | 6% | 7% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 98% | |
| 40 | 8% | 95% | |
| 41 | 11% | 87% | |
| 42 | 28% | 76% | |
| 43 | 28% | 48% | Median |
| 44 | 7% | 20% | |
| 45 | 11% | 13% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 37 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 21% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 25% | 75% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 51% | |
| 41 | 20% | 36% | |
| 42 | 9% | 16% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 95% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 89% | |
| 40 | 30% | 78% | |
| 41 | 27% | 48% | Median |
| 42 | 12% | 20% | |
| 43 | 6% | 8% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 13% | 96% | |
| 36 | 13% | 83% | |
| 37 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 38 | 30% | 46% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 17% | |
| 40 | 5% | 9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 7% | 94% | |
| 36 | 10% | 87% | |
| 37 | 32% | 77% | |
| 38 | 22% | 45% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 9% | 23% | |
| 40 | 11% | 14% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 13% | 97% | |
| 31 | 10% | 84% | |
| 32 | 31% | 73% | Median |
| 33 | 26% | 42% | |
| 34 | 7% | 16% | |
| 35 | 5% | 9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 5% | 94% | |
| 28 | 32% | 89% | |
| 29 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 13% | 33% | |
| 31 | 16% | 21% | |
| 32 | 4% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 7% | 95% | |
| 20 | 17% | 88% | |
| 21 | 14% | 71% | |
| 22 | 36% | 58% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 21% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 8% | 98.5% | |
| 17 | 16% | 91% | |
| 18 | 16% | 75% | |
| 19 | 42% | 59% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 17% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 1–9 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.25%