Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 8–15 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23.2% | 28.9% | 27.1–30.8% | 26.6–31.4% | 26.2–31.8% | 25.4–32.8% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 29.6% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 12.1% | 18.9% | 17.3–20.5% | 16.9–21.0% | 16.6–21.4% | 15.9–22.2% |
| Les Engagés | 20.6% | 17.6% | 16.1–19.2% | 15.7–19.6% | 15.3–20.1% | 14.6–20.9% |
| Ecolo | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| Chez Nous | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| DéFI | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 19 | 23 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 26 | 17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 8 | 14 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Les Engagés | 17 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Ecolo | 5 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Chez Nous | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98% | |
| 22 | 6% | 96% | |
| 23 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 24 | 13% | 46% | |
| 25 | 16% | 33% | |
| 26 | 15% | 17% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 7% | 97% | |
| 15 | 10% | 90% | |
| 16 | 11% | 79% | |
| 17 | 59% | 69% | Median |
| 18 | 7% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 98% | |
| 14 | 48% | 96% | Median |
| 15 | 25% | 48% | |
| 16 | 21% | 23% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 23% | 97% | |
| 14 | 21% | 75% | |
| 15 | 53% | 54% | Median |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 61% | 97% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 24% | 36% | |
| 7 | 7% | 12% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 2 | 12% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés | 44 | 53 | 100% | 51–55 | 50–55 | 50–56 | 48–56 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 50 | 46 | 100% | 44–47 | 44–48 | 44–48 | 43–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 41 | 44 | 100% | 42–46 | 41–46 | 41–47 | 40–48 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 32 | 44 | 100% | 42–46 | 42–47 | 41–47 | 40–48 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 45 | 40 | 96% | 39–42 | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 27 | 39 | 74% | 37–40 | 36–41 | 36–42 | 34–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 36 | 38 | 71% | 36–40 | 36–41 | 35–41 | 34–42 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 48 | 36 | 20% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 33–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 24 | 29 | 0% | 28–31 | 27–32 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 43 | 31 | 0% | 29–32 | 28–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 31 | 22 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 19–26 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 13 | 20 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 8% | 93% | |
| 52 | 25% | 85% | Median |
| 53 | 36% | 60% | |
| 54 | 12% | 24% | |
| 55 | 9% | 12% | |
| 56 | 4% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 10% | 98% | |
| 45 | 30% | 87% | Median |
| 46 | 33% | 58% | |
| 47 | 15% | 25% | |
| 48 | 8% | 10% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 5% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 42 | 16% | 93% | |
| 43 | 26% | 77% | Median |
| 44 | 31% | 51% | |
| 45 | 8% | 20% | |
| 46 | 8% | 12% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 7% | 97% | Median |
| 43 | 34% | 90% | |
| 44 | 22% | 56% | |
| 45 | 21% | 34% | |
| 46 | 6% | 13% | |
| 47 | 5% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 5% | 96% | Majority |
| 39 | 13% | 92% | |
| 40 | 39% | 78% | Median |
| 41 | 19% | 39% | |
| 42 | 16% | 20% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 19% | 93% | Median |
| 38 | 23% | 74% | Majority |
| 39 | 27% | 51% | |
| 40 | 15% | 23% | |
| 41 | 6% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 36 | 10% | 95% | Last Result |
| 37 | 15% | 85% | |
| 38 | 36% | 71% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 35% | |
| 40 | 8% | 15% | |
| 41 | 7% | 7% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 33 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 7% | 95% | |
| 35 | 15% | 88% | |
| 36 | 31% | 73% | |
| 37 | 22% | 42% | Median |
| 38 | 16% | 20% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 28 | 32% | 94% | Median |
| 29 | 22% | 62% | |
| 30 | 15% | 40% | |
| 31 | 18% | 25% | |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 7% | 97% | |
| 29 | 7% | 90% | |
| 30 | 23% | 83% | |
| 31 | 24% | 61% | |
| 32 | 31% | 37% | Median |
| 33 | 4% | 5% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 11% | 95% | |
| 21 | 12% | 84% | |
| 22 | 38% | 72% | Median |
| 23 | 25% | 34% | |
| 24 | 6% | 9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 27% | 96% | Median |
| 20 | 35% | 69% | |
| 21 | 21% | 34% | |
| 22 | 9% | 13% | |
| 23 | 4% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 8–15 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.56%