Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 12–15 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) 0.0% 18.6% 17.6–19.7% 17.4–20.0% 17.1–20.2% 16.7–20.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0.0% 16.0% 15.0–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.1–18.0%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0.0% 14.0% 13.1–14.9% 12.8–15.2% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0.0% 11.3% 10.5–12.2% 10.3–12.4% 10.1–12.7% 9.7–13.1%
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4%
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0.0% 6.7% 6.0–7.4% 5.9–7.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.1%
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0.0% 4.7% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.4% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6%
50Plus (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.9%
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.9%
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.9%
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.9%
DENK (*) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
50Plus (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
DENK (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Democraten 66 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 10% 100%  
7 49% 90% Median
8 41% 41%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 29% 100%  
6 67% 71% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 83% 95% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 64% 98% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 38% 100%  
3 62% 62% Median
4 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 61% 100% Median
3 39% 39%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 82% 100% Median
3 18% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

50Plus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

ChristenUnie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

DENK (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 12 0% 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–13
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 8% 99.9%  
12 47% 92% Median
13 45% 45%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 29% 100%  
6 67% 71% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 38% 100%  
3 62% 62% Median
4 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 80% 100% Median
3 17% 20%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 61% 100% Median
3 39% 39%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations