Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 16–19 January 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 18.6% | 17.6–19.7% | 17.3–20.0% | 17.1–20.3% | 16.6–20.8% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.4–16.3% | 14.1–16.6% | 13.9–16.9% | 13.4–17.4% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.3% | 12.4–14.3% | 12.2–14.6% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.6–15.3% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.9–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.4–12.0% | 9.1–12.4% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.0–8.8% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.1–7.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.1–7.8% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.8–4.0% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.7% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 53% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 44% | 44% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 49% | 100% | |
| 6 | 50% | 51% | Median |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 26% | 100% | |
| 4 | 73% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 32% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 32% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 84% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 12–13 | 12–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 53% | 95% | Median |
| 13 | 42% | 42% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 49% | 100% | |
| 6 | 50% | 51% | Median |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 32% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 32% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 84% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 January 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2260
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.45%