Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 30 January–2 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 17.3% | 16.3–18.4% | 16.0–18.7% | 15.8–19.0% | 15.3–19.5% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.3% | 12.4–14.3% | 12.2–14.6% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.6–15.3% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.8–13.6% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.3–14.1% | 10.9–14.6% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.4–11.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.6–10.2% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.8–11.0% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.5% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.5% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 6.0–7.4% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.4–8.2% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.7% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.7% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.7% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 50% | 100% | |
| 7 | 50% | 50% | Median |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 23% | 100% | |
| 5 | 75% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 43% | 43% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 40% | 100% | |
| 4 | 59% | 60% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 76% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 24% | 24% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 100% | |
| 3 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 40% | 40% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 42% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–13 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 71% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 26% | 28% | Median |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 43% | 43% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 76% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 24% | 24% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 100% | |
| 3 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 40% | 40% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 January–2 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2190
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.48%