Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 6–9 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 15.2% | 14.2–16.2% | 14.0–16.5% | 13.7–16.8% | 13.3–17.3% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.7–14.6% | 12.4–14.9% | 12.2–15.1% | 11.8–15.6% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 12.1% | 11.2–13.1% | 11.0–13.3% | 10.8–13.6% | 10.4–14.0% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.9% | 9.1–10.8% | 8.9–11.0% | 8.7–11.2% | 8.3–11.7% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.5–10.6% | 8.3–10.9% | 8.0–11.3% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.9% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.5–9.6% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.9% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.5–9.6% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 6.1–7.6% | 6.0–7.8% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.5–8.3% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.7–3.5% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.2% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 98.7% | 99.8% | Median |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 100% | |
| 5 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 18% | 100% | |
| 4 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 94% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 90% | 99.2% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10–12 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 12 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 100% | |
| 5 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 90% | 99.2% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 90% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2132
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.87%