Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 12–15 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.3% | 12.2–14.4% | 11.9–14.8% | 11.7–15.1% | 11.2–15.7% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.0–14.2% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.8% | 10.9–15.4% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 10.2% | 9.3–11.3% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.8–11.8% | 8.4–12.4% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.4% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.0–11.0% | 7.6–11.5% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.4–10.3% | 8.1–10.6% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.5–11.4% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.8–10.5% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.4–9.2% | 7.2–9.5% | 7.0–9.7% | 6.6–10.2% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.4–9.2% | 7.2–9.5% | 7.0–9.7% | 6.6–10.2% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.5–5.0% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.2% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.5% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.3–3.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 0.9–2.6% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 86% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 100% | |
| 5 | 85% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 31% | 100% | |
| 4 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 69% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 31% | 31% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 90% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 24% | 24% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 96% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 44% | 47% | |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 97% | |
| 10 | 79% | 86% | Median |
| 11 | 7% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 54% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 46% | 46% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 31% | 100% | |
| 4 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 24% | 24% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 96% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–15 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1529
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.18%