Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–20 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.0–29.6% 23.2–30.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 24.6% 22.8–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 19.9% 18.4–21.7% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.6% 16.8–23.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.5% 11.3–14.0% 10.9–14.4% 10.6–14.8% 10.0–15.5%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Eesti 200 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 32 30–35 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond 27 29 27–32 26–33 25–33 24–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 23 21–25 20–26 19–27 19–28
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 14 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–6
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 1.0% 99.7%  
28 3% 98.7%  
29 6% 96%  
30 10% 90% Last Result
31 26% 81%  
32 13% 55% Median
33 15% 42%  
34 14% 27%  
35 9% 13%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.9% 1.3%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.3%  
26 6% 97%  
27 10% 91% Last Result
28 18% 82%  
29 23% 63% Median
30 13% 40%  
31 14% 27%  
32 7% 13%  
33 4% 6%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 3% 99.6%  
20 5% 97%  
21 9% 92%  
22 22% 83%  
23 25% 61% Median
24 14% 36%  
25 12% 22%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.2%  
12 14% 95%  
13 27% 81%  
14 29% 54% Median
15 17% 25% Last Result
16 6% 9%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 1.2% 49%  
5 39% 48%  
6 7% 8%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 1.1% 9%  
5 7% 8%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0.2% 0.9%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 84 100% 81–88 80–89 79–89 77–90
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 61 100% 58–65 57–66 56–66 54–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 58 99.7% 54–61 53–61 53–62 51–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 55 97% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–62
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 52 77% 49–56 48–56 48–57 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 48 17% 45–51 44–52 43–53 41–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 48 17% 45–51 44–52 43–53 41–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 46 2% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 2% 42–48 41–49 40–50 39–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 43 0% 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 37 0% 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 35 0% 31–38 30–39 30–39 28–41

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 1.2% 99.2%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 7% 93%  
82 16% 86%  
83 16% 70%  
84 8% 54% Median
85 7% 46%  
86 11% 39%  
87 13% 28%  
88 9% 15%  
89 5% 7%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.8%  
55 1.1% 99.3%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 96% Last Result
58 8% 93%  
59 12% 85%  
60 14% 72%  
61 10% 58% Median
62 13% 48%  
63 10% 35%  
64 9% 24%  
65 9% 15%  
66 4% 6%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.7% Last Result, Majority
52 1.1% 99.2%  
53 5% 98%  
54 5% 93%  
55 7% 88% Median
56 12% 81%  
57 14% 69%  
58 15% 56%  
59 23% 41%  
60 7% 18%  
61 7% 12%  
62 3% 4%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.5%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 4% 97% Majority
52 6% 93%  
53 12% 87%  
54 21% 75%  
55 10% 54% Median
56 15% 44%  
57 11% 29%  
58 10% 18%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.8% 1.4%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 1.2% 99.1%  
48 3% 98%  
49 7% 95%  
50 10% 87%  
51 16% 77% Majority
52 17% 61% Median
53 13% 44%  
54 13% 31%  
55 8% 18%  
56 6% 10%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.3%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.5%  
43 2% 98.9%  
44 3% 97%  
45 7% 94%  
46 9% 87% Median
47 15% 78%  
48 14% 63%  
49 17% 49%  
50 15% 32%  
51 9% 17% Majority
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 1.1%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.9%  
44 3% 97%  
45 7% 94%  
46 9% 86% Median
47 15% 77%  
48 13% 62%  
49 17% 49%  
50 15% 32%  
51 8% 17% Majority
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.4% 99.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 91%  
44 13% 85%  
45 20% 71% Last Result
46 14% 52% Median
47 15% 38%  
48 10% 22%  
49 9% 13%  
50 2% 4%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.7%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 4% 97%  
42 7% 94%  
43 11% 87% Median
44 12% 76%  
45 15% 64%  
46 9% 48%  
47 20% 39%  
48 10% 19%  
49 5% 9%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 4% 97%  
40 9% 93%  
41 8% 84%  
42 24% 76% Last Result
43 15% 52% Median
44 13% 37%  
45 11% 24%  
46 5% 13%  
47 4% 8%  
48 4% 4%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 6% 97%  
34 7% 91%  
35 12% 84%  
36 19% 72%  
37 19% 53% Median
38 13% 34%  
39 11% 21%  
40 5% 10%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.9% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 1.4% 99.3%  
30 3% 98%  
31 8% 95%  
32 8% 87% Median
33 11% 79%  
34 14% 67%  
35 15% 53%  
36 19% 39%  
37 7% 20%  
38 5% 13%  
39 6% 8%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.7% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations