Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 11–18 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.9% 25.6–31.4% 24.8–32.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 25.2% 23.4–27.0% 22.9–27.6% 22.5–28.0% 21.7–28.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.9% 13.6–18.3% 13.0–19.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 14.0% 12.7–15.6% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.4% 11.4–17.2%
Eesti 200 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.8–7.6%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 34 30–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond 27 29 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 15 13–17 13–17 12–18 12–19
Eesti 200 0 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.7%  
29 3% 99.0%  
30 6% 96% Last Result
31 11% 90%  
32 10% 79%  
33 17% 69%  
34 25% 52% Median
35 13% 27%  
36 6% 13%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.0%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.7%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 6% 95%  
27 13% 90% Last Result
28 19% 77%  
29 21% 58% Median
30 24% 38%  
31 7% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.7% 1.2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.7% 100%  
14 4% 99.3%  
15 11% 95%  
16 23% 84%  
17 29% 61% Median
18 15% 32%  
19 12% 17%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 13% 97%  
14 20% 83%  
15 25% 64% Last Result, Median
16 20% 39%  
17 15% 19%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 1.1%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 0% 71%  
4 9% 71%  
5 45% 62% Median
6 14% 17%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 0% 57%  
2 0% 57%  
3 0% 57%  
4 12% 57% Median
5 32% 45%  
6 12% 13%  
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 3% 7%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 79 100% 75–83 74–85 73–85 72–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 62 100% 58–66 58–67 57–67 55–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 53 83% 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 51 60% 48–54 47–55 45–56 44–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 51 60% 48–54 47–55 45–56 44–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 50 46% 47–53 46–55 46–55 44–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 49 20% 45–52 44–53 43–53 42–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 8% 43–50 43–51 41–52 40–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 46 4% 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 44 0.7% 41–46 40–48 39–49 38–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 32 0% 29–34 28–35 28–36 27–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 2% 98.9%  
74 3% 97%  
75 4% 94%  
76 8% 90%  
77 13% 81%  
78 8% 68%  
79 17% 60%  
80 12% 44% Median
81 14% 32%  
82 3% 18%  
83 7% 14%  
84 2% 8%  
85 4% 6%  
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.5% 0.5%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.5%  
57 2% 98% Last Result
58 6% 95%  
59 5% 90%  
60 12% 85%  
61 6% 72%  
62 23% 66%  
63 14% 43% Median
64 12% 30%  
65 4% 17%  
66 7% 13%  
67 4% 6%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 1.1% 99.5%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 11% 94%  
51 12% 83% Last Result, Majority
52 17% 71%  
53 13% 54%  
54 8% 41%  
55 12% 33% Median
56 7% 21%  
57 6% 14%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 2% 97%  
47 4% 96%  
48 4% 92%  
49 10% 88%  
50 18% 78%  
51 10% 60% Majority
52 14% 49%  
53 17% 36% Median
54 9% 19%  
55 5% 10%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.4%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 2% 97%  
47 4% 96%  
48 4% 92%  
49 10% 88%  
50 18% 78%  
51 10% 60% Majority
52 14% 49%  
53 17% 36% Median
54 9% 19%  
55 5% 10%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.4%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0% 0.1% Last Result
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.6%  
45 1.1% 98.8%  
46 5% 98%  
47 6% 92%  
48 10% 86%  
49 11% 76%  
50 19% 65%  
51 14% 46% Median, Majority
52 15% 32%  
53 8% 17%  
54 3% 9%  
55 4% 6%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.7% 1.4%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.7%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 3% 97%  
45 9% 94% Last Result
46 8% 85%  
47 13% 77%  
48 10% 63%  
49 19% 53% Median
50 14% 34%  
51 7% 20% Majority
52 6% 12%  
53 4% 6%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 2% 97%  
43 6% 96%  
44 11% 89%  
45 9% 78%  
46 18% 69%  
47 12% 51%  
48 12% 39% Median
49 8% 27%  
50 11% 19%  
51 4% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.3%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 3% 97%  
43 9% 93%  
44 16% 84%  
45 12% 68%  
46 21% 56% Median
47 13% 35%  
48 12% 22%  
49 4% 10%  
50 2% 6%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 4% 96%  
41 7% 92%  
42 11% 85% Last Result
43 18% 74%  
44 18% 57% Median
45 13% 39%  
46 17% 26%  
47 3% 9%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 1.1% 99.6%  
31 3% 98.5%  
32 3% 96%  
33 6% 93%  
34 14% 87%  
35 16% 73%  
36 11% 57%  
37 10% 45%  
38 13% 35% Median
39 14% 23%  
40 4% 9%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.4% 99.8%  
28 4% 98%  
29 6% 95%  
30 14% 89%  
31 15% 75%  
32 19% 60% Median
33 15% 41%  
34 16% 26%  
35 6% 9%  
36 1.4% 4%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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