Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 8–13 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 29.0% 27.3–30.8% 26.8–31.4% 26.3–31.8% 25.5–32.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 24.7% 23.1–26.5% 22.6–27.0% 22.2–27.4% 21.5–28.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.2–20.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 10.7% 9.6–12.0% 9.3–12.4% 9.0–12.7% 8.5–13.4%
Eesti 200 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.6% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 34 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 27 28 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 4% 99.0% Last Result
31 8% 95%  
32 13% 88%  
33 22% 75%  
34 19% 53% Median
35 16% 34%  
36 9% 18%  
37 6% 8%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8%  
25 5% 98%  
26 12% 93%  
27 17% 81% Last Result
28 24% 63% Median
29 19% 39%  
30 10% 20%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 7% 98%  
17 20% 91%  
18 25% 71% Median
19 27% 46%  
20 13% 20%  
21 5% 7%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.4% 99.9%  
9 12% 98.5%  
10 24% 86%  
11 30% 62% Median
12 22% 32%  
13 8% 10%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 18% 97%  
8 38% 79% Median
9 28% 42%  
10 12% 14%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Median
1 0% 35%  
2 0% 35%  
3 0% 35%  
4 16% 35%  
5 17% 19%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 80 100% 77–83 76–83 75–84 74–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 62 100% 59–64 58–65 57–66 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 54 90% 50–56 50–57 50–58 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 52 74% 49–55 48–55 48–56 46–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 46 3% 44–49 43–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 46 2% 43–49 42–49 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 46 2% 43–49 42–49 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 45 0.1% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 41 0% 38–44 37–44 37–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 39 0% 37–42 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 35 0% 32–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 29 0% 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.2%  
76 3% 97%  
77 6% 94%  
78 10% 88%  
79 13% 78%  
80 19% 65% Median
81 19% 46%  
82 14% 27%  
83 8% 13%  
84 4% 5%  
85 0.6% 0.8%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.8%  
57 2% 98.8% Last Result
58 3% 97%  
59 6% 93%  
60 18% 88%  
61 12% 70%  
62 22% 58% Median
63 13% 36%  
64 13% 22%  
65 5% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 8% 98%  
51 5% 90% Last Result, Majority
52 13% 84% Median
53 19% 72%  
54 16% 53%  
55 13% 37%  
56 15% 24%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 1.0% 1.2%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.5%  
48 3% 98%  
49 7% 95%  
50 13% 88%  
51 9% 74% Majority
52 24% 65% Median
53 16% 41%  
54 12% 25%  
55 9% 13%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 3% 98%  
44 14% 95%  
45 12% 81%  
46 21% 68% Median
47 20% 47%  
48 13% 27%  
49 7% 15%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.8% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.6% 100%  
41 1.4% 99.3%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 8% 89%  
45 17% 82% Median
46 16% 65%  
47 22% 49%  
48 13% 27%  
49 11% 14%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.1% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.6% 100%  
41 1.4% 99.3%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 8% 89%  
45 17% 82% Median
46 16% 65%  
47 22% 49%  
48 13% 27%  
49 11% 14%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.1% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 5% 97%  
42 12% 93%  
43 14% 81%  
44 12% 67%  
45 22% 55% Last Result, Median
46 11% 33%  
47 13% 22%  
48 6% 10%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.9%  
36 1.3% 99.0%  
37 7% 98%  
38 7% 91%  
39 19% 84% Median
40 11% 65%  
41 20% 54%  
42 16% 34%  
43 6% 17%  
44 6% 11%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 4% 99.1%  
36 5% 96%  
37 17% 91%  
38 13% 73%  
39 24% 60% Median
40 11% 36%  
41 13% 25%  
42 9% 12% Last Result
43 2% 3%  
44 1.0% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.8%  
31 3% 98.6%  
32 6% 96%  
33 13% 90%  
34 13% 76% Median
35 16% 63%  
36 13% 47%  
37 17% 34%  
38 9% 17%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.6%  
27 13% 94%  
28 15% 81%  
29 24% 66% Median
30 17% 42%  
31 12% 25%  
32 9% 13%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.8% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations