Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 31 October–13 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Eesti 200 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 40 36–43 35–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond 30 26 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.7%  
35 5% 98%  
36 9% 93%  
37 9% 85%  
38 11% 76%  
39 10% 65%  
40 16% 55% Median
41 17% 39%  
42 12% 23%  
43 7% 11%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.7% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 5% 98%  
24 14% 92%  
25 18% 78%  
26 20% 61% Median
27 18% 41%  
28 12% 23%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 4% Last Result
31 1.1% 1.5%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.6%  
14 9% 97%  
15 20% 88%  
16 28% 68% Median
17 21% 40%  
18 13% 19%  
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 9% 99.4%  
7 31% 91%  
8 33% 60% Median
9 20% 27%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.5% 99.7%  
5 13% 99.2%  
6 37% 87%  
7 33% 50% Median
8 14% 17%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Median
1 0% 44%  
2 0% 44%  
3 0% 44%  
4 8% 44%  
5 28% 36%  
6 7% 8%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 82 100% 77–86 76–87 75–87 74–89
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 66 100% 62–69 61–70 60–71 58–73
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 56 96% 52–59 51–60 50–61 49–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 20% 44–52 43–53 43–54 42–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 46 4% 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 44 0.8% 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 42 0.1% 39–45 38–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 35 0% 31–38 30–39 30–41 29–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 35 0% 31–38 30–39 30–41 29–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 33 0% 30–35 29–36 28–37 27–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 28 0% 25–32 24–33 24–33 23–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 23 0% 21–25 20–26 19–26 18–28

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 4% 97%  
77 5% 94%  
78 5% 88%  
79 5% 83%  
80 8% 78%  
81 16% 70%  
82 12% 54% Median
83 12% 42%  
84 7% 29%  
85 8% 22%  
86 8% 14%  
87 4% 7%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.7% 0.8%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.4%  
60 3% 98.6%  
61 6% 96%  
62 6% 90%  
63 7% 84%  
64 11% 77%  
65 15% 66%  
66 15% 52% Median
67 12% 37%  
68 7% 25%  
69 9% 18%  
70 4% 9%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.0%  
51 5% 96% Majority
52 8% 91%  
53 8% 83%  
54 9% 75%  
55 9% 66%  
56 13% 57% Median
57 14% 44%  
58 13% 30%  
59 9% 17%  
60 5% 8%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 3% 98%  
44 6% 95%  
45 6% 89%  
46 8% 83%  
47 11% 75% Median
48 17% 64%  
49 13% 47%  
50 14% 34%  
51 8% 20% Majority
52 6% 12%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.0% 1.2%  
56 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.6%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 5% 96% Last Result
43 9% 91%  
44 12% 82%  
45 13% 71%  
46 13% 58%  
47 13% 45% Median
48 15% 32%  
49 7% 17%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.7% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.4%  
40 6% 98.8%  
41 8% 93%  
42 9% 85% Median
43 15% 76%  
44 13% 60%  
45 11% 48%  
46 12% 37%  
47 8% 25%  
48 7% 16%  
49 7% 10%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.8% Last Result, Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 1.5% 99.6% Last Result
38 4% 98%  
39 5% 94%  
40 13% 89%  
41 14% 75%  
42 13% 61% Median
43 16% 49%  
44 16% 32%  
45 7% 16%  
46 4% 9%  
47 4% 5%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.8%  
30 4% 98.5%  
31 11% 94%  
32 5% 84%  
33 13% 78% Median
34 11% 66%  
35 12% 55%  
36 11% 42%  
37 12% 31%  
38 10% 20%  
39 5% 9%  
40 2% 5%  
41 1.3% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.8%  
30 4% 98.5%  
31 11% 94%  
32 5% 84%  
33 13% 78% Median
34 11% 66%  
35 12% 55%  
36 11% 42%  
37 12% 31%  
38 10% 20%  
39 5% 9%  
40 2% 5%  
41 1.3% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 3% 97%  
30 9% 94%  
31 17% 86%  
32 15% 68%  
33 21% 53% Median
34 13% 33%  
35 11% 19%  
36 5% 9%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.3% 99.6%  
24 7% 98%  
25 9% 91%  
26 12% 82% Median
27 12% 70%  
28 11% 58%  
29 13% 47%  
30 10% 35%  
31 9% 24%  
32 8% 15%  
33 4% 7%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.4% 99.7%  
19 2% 99.3%  
20 7% 97%  
21 13% 90%  
22 20% 77% Last Result
23 25% 57% Median
24 17% 32%  
25 10% 15%  
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations