Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 5–12 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 25.9% 24.0–27.8% 23.5–28.4% 23.1–28.9% 22.2–29.8%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 23.0% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.4% 20.3–25.9% 19.5–26.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 20.3% 18.6–22.1% 18.1–22.6% 17.7–23.0% 16.9–23.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 9.2% 8.0–10.5% 7.7–10.9% 7.4–11.3% 6.9–11.9%
Eesti 200 0.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.6% 6.8–9.9% 6.6–10.3% 6.1–10.9%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 7.8% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.4% 6.2–9.8% 5.7–10.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.0% 2.2–5.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.9% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 29 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Reformierakond 30 26 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–27
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 14 7 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.6%  
26 6% 98%  
27 11% 93% Last Result
28 18% 82%  
29 22% 64% Median
30 21% 42%  
31 11% 21%  
32 6% 10%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.7% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.0%  
23 7% 96%  
24 15% 89%  
25 22% 74%  
26 20% 52% Median
27 20% 32%  
28 7% 12%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.8%  
19 5% 98.9%  
20 9% 94%  
21 28% 85%  
22 22% 57% Median
23 15% 35%  
24 13% 20%  
25 5% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 9% 99.0%  
8 28% 90%  
9 35% 62% Median
10 19% 26%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 6% 99.6%  
7 21% 94%  
8 43% 72% Median
9 23% 29%  
10 5% 7%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 18% 98%  
7 41% 80% Median
8 29% 40%  
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.0% 2%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 77 100% 75–79 74–80 73–80 72–81
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 55 98% 52–57 51–58 51–59 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 55 99.1% 52–58 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 51 60% 49–54 48–55 48–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 48 9% 45–50 44–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.5% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 38 0% 35–41 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 30–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 33 0% 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–35 26–36

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.7%  
73 2% 99.0%  
74 5% 97%  
75 13% 92%  
76 24% 79%  
77 24% 55% Median
78 18% 31%  
79 7% 13%  
80 4% 6%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.4% 99.4%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 9% 95%  
53 12% 86%  
54 19% 74%  
55 16% 54% Median
56 20% 38%  
57 10% 18% Last Result
58 4% 8%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 3% 99.1% Last Result, Majority
52 7% 96%  
53 12% 89%  
54 19% 77%  
55 26% 59% Median
56 10% 33%  
57 11% 22%  
58 7% 11%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.9% 1.2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 1.3% 99.3%  
48 5% 98%  
49 9% 93%  
50 25% 84%  
51 24% 60% Median, Majority
52 13% 35%  
53 9% 23%  
54 7% 13%  
55 4% 6%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.7% 0.8%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.5%  
44 6% 98%  
45 6% 93%  
46 18% 86%  
47 10% 68%  
48 30% 58% Median
49 12% 28%  
50 8% 17%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 6% 97%  
43 7% 91%  
44 18% 84%  
45 24% 66% Median
46 17% 42%  
47 9% 24%  
48 8% 15%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.3% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.7%  
38 2% 98%  
39 9% 96%  
40 8% 87%  
41 24% 78%  
42 15% 55% Median
43 27% 40%  
44 7% 14%  
45 4% 6%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.7%  
38 2% 98%  
39 9% 96%  
40 8% 87%  
41 24% 78%  
42 15% 55% Median
43 27% 40%  
44 7% 14%  
45 4% 6%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 8% 97%  
36 13% 89%  
37 13% 77%  
38 31% 64% Median
39 12% 33%  
40 7% 21%  
41 10% 14%  
42 3% 4% Last Result
43 0.9% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 3% 97%  
32 7% 94%  
33 20% 88%  
34 21% 68%  
35 11% 47% Median
36 26% 36%  
37 6% 10%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.1%  
30 8% 97%  
31 11% 89%  
32 14% 78%  
33 24% 64% Median
34 24% 40%  
35 10% 16%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 5% 98%  
29 18% 93%  
30 25% 75%  
31 11% 50% Median
32 20% 39%  
33 11% 19%  
34 5% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations