Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 13–19 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Eesti 200 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 28 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Reformierakond 30 25 22–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 23 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Erakond Isamaa 14 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Eesti 200 0 5 4–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.8%  
25 4% 98.6%  
26 10% 94%  
27 18% 84% Last Result
28 20% 67% Median
29 21% 47%  
30 14% 26%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.0% 1.4%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 9% 97%  
23 14% 88%  
24 24% 74%  
25 21% 50% Median
26 15% 29%  
27 8% 14%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.4% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.8%  
20 5% 98%  
21 13% 93%  
22 22% 80%  
23 25% 58% Median
24 15% 33%  
25 10% 18%  
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 7% 99.2%  
11 18% 92%  
12 31% 74% Median
13 27% 43%  
14 12% 16%  
15 3% 4% Last Result
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 11% 98.8%  
7 34% 87%  
8 37% 54% Median
9 13% 17%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 3% 93%  
5 39% 89% Median
6 37% 50%  
7 11% 13%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 76 100% 74–78 73–80 72–81 72–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 55 99.0% 52–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 53 86% 50–56 49–57 49–58 47–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 51 60% 49–54 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 13% 46–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 47 8% 45–50 44–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 45 0.3% 42–47 41–48 41–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 45 0.3% 42–47 41–48 41–49 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 35 0% 33–38 32–39 31–39 31–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 32 0% 30–35 29–35 29–36 28–37

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 3% 99.5%  
73 6% 97%  
74 17% 91%  
75 20% 73%  
76 21% 54% Median
77 14% 33%  
78 10% 19%  
79 4% 10%  
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.8% 1.2%  
83 0.4% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 3% 99.0% Last Result, Majority
52 6% 96%  
53 8% 90%  
54 21% 81%  
55 20% 60%  
56 17% 40% Median
57 10% 23%  
58 7% 13%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.5% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.5%  
49 4% 98%  
50 7% 94%  
51 15% 86% Majority
52 15% 72%  
53 18% 57% Median
54 14% 39%  
55 12% 25%  
56 7% 13%  
57 3% 6% Last Result
58 2% 3%  
59 0.6% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 4% 97%  
49 12% 93%  
50 21% 81%  
51 15% 60% Median, Majority
52 16% 44%  
53 13% 28%  
54 9% 15%  
55 3% 6%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 1.1% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 6% 97%  
46 10% 91%  
47 17% 81%  
48 19% 63% Median
49 20% 44%  
50 12% 25%  
51 8% 13% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.4%  
44 5% 98%  
45 7% 93%  
46 17% 86%  
47 21% 69%  
48 18% 48% Median
49 14% 30%  
50 8% 16%  
51 4% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.0%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.2% 99.4%  
41 6% 98%  
42 10% 92%  
43 14% 82%  
44 14% 68%  
45 23% 54% Median
46 17% 30%  
47 7% 13%  
48 4% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.2% 99.4%  
41 6% 98%  
42 10% 92%  
43 14% 82%  
44 14% 68%  
45 23% 54% Median
46 17% 30%  
47 7% 13%  
48 4% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.3% 99.6%  
37 3% 98%  
38 10% 95%  
39 13% 85%  
40 21% 73% Median
41 19% 51%  
42 18% 33% Last Result
43 8% 15%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 1.0% 1.2%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 8% 96%  
35 13% 89%  
36 19% 76%  
37 18% 56% Median
38 18% 38%  
39 12% 20%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.4% 100%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 4% 97%  
33 15% 94%  
34 18% 78%  
35 15% 60% Median
36 20% 45%  
37 12% 25%  
38 6% 13%  
39 5% 7%  
40 1.5% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.7%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 7% 98%  
30 8% 91%  
31 17% 83%  
32 22% 66%  
33 23% 44% Median
34 11% 21%  
35 6% 10%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations