Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 4–8 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 24.4% 22.9–26.0% 22.5–26.4% 22.2–26.8% 21.5–27.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 23.3% 21.8–24.8% 21.4–25.3% 21.1–25.6% 20.4–26.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 20.2% 18.9–21.7% 18.5–22.1% 18.2–22.5% 17.5–23.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.8% 10.7–13.0% 10.4–13.3% 10.2–13.6% 9.7–14.2%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6% 6.2–10.1%
Eesti 200 0.0% 6.6% 5.8–7.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.3–8.0% 5.0–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.4% 1.1–1.9% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 27 25–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Eesti Keskerakond 27 26 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 22 20–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Erakond Isamaa 14 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 8% 98%  
26 14% 90%  
27 29% 75% Median
28 22% 47%  
29 17% 24%  
30 5% 7% Last Result
31 1.2% 1.5%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.3%  
24 10% 96%  
25 24% 85%  
26 26% 61% Median
27 21% 35% Last Result
28 10% 14%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.9% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 11% 98%  
21 24% 87%  
22 28% 62% Median
23 20% 35%  
24 9% 15%  
25 5% 5%  
26 0.6% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 6% 99.2%  
11 22% 93%  
12 46% 71% Median
13 16% 25%  
14 8% 9%  
15 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 7% 99.6%  
7 41% 92%  
8 40% 52% Median
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0.7% 99.5%  
5 22% 98.7%  
6 48% 77% Median
7 25% 28%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 75 100% 74–77 73–78 73–78 72–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 57 100% 55–59 54–60 54–60 53–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 53 96% 51–55 51–56 50–56 49–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 49 24% 47–52 47–52 46–53 45–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 48 8% 46–50 46–51 45–51 44–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 47 2% 45–49 44–50 44–50 43–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 47 2% 45–49 44–50 44–50 43–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.2% 44–48 43–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 39 0% 37–41 37–42 36–43 35–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 38 0% 36–40 35–41 35–41 34–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 34 0% 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.4% 100%  
72 2% 99.6%  
73 7% 98%  
74 17% 91%  
75 26% 73% Median
76 27% 47%  
77 14% 20%  
78 5% 7%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0.3% 100%  
53 2% 99.6%  
54 5% 98%  
55 11% 93%  
56 17% 82%  
57 28% 65% Median
58 20% 37%  
59 10% 18%  
60 5% 7%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 1.2% 99.9%  
50 3% 98.7%  
51 9% 96% Majority
52 20% 87%  
53 19% 68% Median
54 24% 49%  
55 16% 25%  
56 7% 9%  
57 1.4% 2% Last Result
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.9% 99.9%  
46 4% 99.0%  
47 7% 95%  
48 16% 88%  
49 23% 72% Median
50 26% 50%  
51 13% 24% Majority
52 8% 11%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.0%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 100%  
44 1.1% 99.7%  
45 4% 98.7%  
46 15% 95%  
47 21% 80%  
48 26% 60% Median
49 15% 33%  
50 10% 18%  
51 6% 8% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.4% 100%  
43 2% 99.5%  
44 4% 98%  
45 12% 93%  
46 19% 81%  
47 23% 62% Median
48 20% 38%  
49 12% 18%  
50 5% 6%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.4% 100%  
43 2% 99.5%  
44 4% 98%  
45 12% 93%  
46 19% 81%  
47 23% 62% Median
48 20% 38%  
49 12% 18%  
50 5% 6%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 7% 97%  
44 16% 90%  
45 24% 74%  
46 24% 49% Median
47 15% 26%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 1.0% 99.9%  
36 3% 98.9%  
37 7% 96%  
38 18% 89%  
39 23% 71% Median
40 19% 47%  
41 22% 29%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.5% 99.8%  
35 5% 98%  
36 10% 94%  
37 23% 83%  
38 27% 60% Median
39 18% 34%  
40 11% 16%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.4% 2% Last Result
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 5% 98.9%  
33 11% 94%  
34 21% 83%  
35 25% 62% Median
36 19% 37%  
37 12% 18%  
38 5% 6%  
39 0.8% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 4% 99.1%  
32 15% 96%  
33 19% 80%  
34 23% 61% Median
35 19% 38%  
36 12% 18%  
37 5% 6%  
38 1.2% 1.4%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations