Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 3–9 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Eesti 200 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 29 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Reformierakond 30 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Erakond Isamaa 14 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Eesti 200 0 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.6%  
27 9% 95% Last Result
28 16% 85%  
29 23% 70% Median
30 22% 46%  
31 12% 25%  
32 8% 12%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.9% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.3% 99.8%  
19 5% 98.5%  
20 13% 94%  
21 23% 81%  
22 24% 58% Median
23 17% 34%  
24 9% 16%  
25 6% 7%  
26 1.2% 1.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.3% 99.8%  
19 6% 98%  
20 14% 92%  
21 20% 78%  
22 23% 58% Median
23 19% 36%  
24 10% 16%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.0% 1.3%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.1% 100%  
10 7% 98.9%  
11 21% 92%  
12 30% 71% Median
13 25% 41%  
14 13% 15%  
15 2% 3% Last Result
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 11% 99.2%  
8 29% 88%  
9 34% 59% Median
10 19% 25%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.4% 99.7%  
5 12% 99.4%  
6 34% 88%  
7 37% 53% Median
8 14% 16%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 64 73 100% 71–76 70–76 69–77 68–78
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 53 85% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 51 64% 48–54 48–55 47–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 51 65% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 50% 48–53 47–54 46–54 45–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 37 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 43 0% 40–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 43 0% 40–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 34 0% 32–37 31–37 31–38 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 34 0% 32–37 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 31 0% 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–35

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.8% 99.6%  
69 2% 98.8%  
70 5% 97%  
71 11% 91%  
72 18% 81%  
73 17% 63% Median
74 25% 46%  
75 10% 21%  
76 9% 12%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.7% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 1.3% 99.4%  
49 4% 98%  
50 9% 94%  
51 15% 85% Last Result, Majority
52 20% 71%  
53 19% 50% Median
54 15% 31%  
55 9% 16%  
56 5% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.0%  
48 7% 96%  
49 10% 89%  
50 15% 79%  
51 18% 64% Median, Majority
52 18% 46%  
53 13% 28%  
54 9% 15%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 5% 97%  
49 11% 92%  
50 16% 81%  
51 20% 65% Median, Majority
52 19% 45%  
53 14% 27%  
54 8% 13%  
55 4% 5%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 5% 97%  
48 12% 92%  
49 11% 80%  
50 19% 69% Median
51 24% 50% Majority
52 11% 26%  
53 9% 15%  
54 4% 6%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.4%  
40 3% 98.6%  
41 9% 96%  
42 12% 87%  
43 22% 75%  
44 20% 53% Median
45 13% 33%  
46 12% 21%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 10% 97%  
41 7% 86%  
42 27% 79%  
43 13% 52% Median
44 17% 39%  
45 10% 22%  
46 7% 11%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 10% 97%  
41 7% 86%  
42 27% 79%  
43 13% 52% Median
44 17% 39%  
45 10% 22%  
46 7% 11%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.2% 99.5%  
38 5% 98%  
39 8% 94%  
40 15% 86%  
41 18% 71% Median
42 22% 53% Last Result
43 14% 31%  
44 10% 17%  
45 5% 7%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 6% 98%  
32 11% 92%  
33 21% 81%  
34 20% 60% Median
35 17% 40%  
36 11% 23%  
37 9% 13%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.5%  
31 6% 97%  
32 12% 91%  
33 17% 79%  
34 19% 62% Median
35 21% 43%  
36 11% 21%  
37 7% 10%  
38 3% 3%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.2%  
28 8% 96%  
29 14% 88%  
30 21% 74%  
31 22% 53% Median
32 15% 31%  
33 10% 17%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations