Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 7–13 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 26.9% 25.2–28.7% 24.7–29.2% 24.3–29.6% 23.5–30.5%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 26.8% 25.1–28.6% 24.6–29.1% 24.2–29.5% 23.4–30.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 20.5% 19.0–22.2% 18.6–22.7% 18.2–23.1% 17.5–23.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 9.6% 8.6–10.9% 8.2–11.2% 8.0–11.5% 7.5–12.2%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.7–8.2% 5.5–8.5% 5.0–9.0%
Eesti 200 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 31 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Reformierakond 30 30 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 22 20–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 14 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.0% Last Result
28 7% 96%  
29 16% 89%  
30 20% 74%  
31 18% 53% Median
32 19% 35%  
33 8% 16%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.7%  
27 3% 98.7%  
28 14% 95%  
29 16% 81%  
30 18% 65% Last Result, Median
31 19% 47%  
32 15% 28%  
33 8% 12%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 100%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 10% 98%  
21 15% 88%  
22 28% 73% Median
23 20% 45%  
24 14% 25%  
25 8% 11%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 15% 98%  
9 32% 83%  
10 33% 51% Median
11 14% 18%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0.6% 99.5%  
5 13% 98.9%  
6 45% 86% Median
7 30% 42%  
8 11% 11%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 84 100% 80–86 79–87 79–87 78–89
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 61 100% 58–64 57–65 57–65 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 59 100% 56–62 56–63 55–64 54–65
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 53 89% 50–56 50–57 49–57 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 53 80% 50–56 49–57 49–57 48–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 46 2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 46 2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 40 0% 38–43 37–44 36–44 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 40 0% 37–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–36 28–37

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.3% 100%  
78 1.0% 99.7%  
79 5% 98.7%  
80 6% 94%  
81 11% 88%  
82 10% 76%  
83 11% 67% Median
84 16% 55%  
85 16% 39%  
86 16% 23%  
87 5% 7%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 1.4% 99.5%  
57 4% 98% Last Result
58 9% 94%  
59 14% 86%  
60 11% 72%  
61 16% 61% Median
62 17% 45%  
63 13% 28%  
64 9% 15%  
65 4% 6%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.6%  
56 14% 96%  
57 9% 83%  
58 12% 74% Median
59 16% 62%  
60 16% 46%  
61 14% 30%  
62 9% 16%  
63 5% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.7%  
49 3% 98%  
50 6% 95%  
51 12% 89% Majority
52 15% 78%  
53 21% 63% Median
54 15% 42%  
55 12% 27%  
56 8% 15%  
57 5% 7%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.5%  
49 4% 98%  
50 15% 95%  
51 10% 80% Majority
52 18% 70% Median
53 13% 52%  
54 16% 39%  
55 11% 23%  
56 5% 12%  
57 5% 7%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 5% 96%  
44 8% 91%  
45 11% 83%  
46 14% 72%  
47 25% 58% Median
48 11% 33%  
49 14% 22%  
50 6% 8%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 5% 97%  
44 14% 92%  
45 14% 77%  
46 19% 63% Median
47 15% 44%  
48 13% 29%  
49 9% 16%  
50 5% 7%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 5% 97%  
44 14% 92%  
45 14% 77%  
46 19% 63% Median
47 15% 44%  
48 13% 29%  
49 9% 16%  
50 5% 7%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.8%  
36 3% 99.0%  
37 6% 96%  
38 10% 91%  
39 15% 81%  
40 18% 66%  
41 23% 48% Median
42 12% 25% Last Result
43 7% 13%  
44 4% 6%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.7%  
36 2% 98.7%  
37 8% 96%  
38 17% 89%  
39 16% 72%  
40 21% 57% Median
41 11% 36%  
42 15% 25%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.5%  
33 3% 98.7%  
34 10% 96%  
35 14% 86%  
36 17% 72% Median
37 20% 54%  
38 16% 35%  
39 11% 19%  
40 6% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 7% 98%  
30 11% 90%  
31 16% 80%  
32 28% 63% Median
33 17% 35%  
34 9% 19%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.8%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations