Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–21 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 30.2% 28.4–32.1% 27.9–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.6–34.0%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Eesti 200 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 36 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Eesti Reformierakond 30 31 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 14 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 3% 98.9%  
33 8% 96%  
34 15% 88%  
35 21% 73%  
36 22% 52% Median
37 14% 30%  
38 9% 15%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 10% 96%  
30 17% 87% Last Result
31 21% 70% Median
32 19% 48%  
33 18% 30%  
34 6% 12%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.4%  
18 10% 97%  
19 18% 87%  
20 29% 69% Median
21 23% 40%  
22 10% 17%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.1% 1.4%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100%  
6 13% 98.6%  
7 35% 85%  
8 33% 51% Median
9 15% 17%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0.5% 98%  
5 23% 98%  
6 42% 75% Median
7 27% 33%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 1.3% 3%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 87 100% 85–89 85–89 84–90 82–94
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 67 100% 65–70 64–70 63–71 62–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 58 100% 55–60 54–61 54–61 52–63
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 55 99.6% 53–58 52–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 52 76% 49–54 49–55 48–55 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 22% 47–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 45 0.3% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 45 0.3% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 39 0% 37–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 28 0% 26–30 25–31 24–31 23–32

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 0.8% 99.3%  
84 2% 98.5%  
85 7% 96%  
86 16% 89%  
87 30% 73% Median
88 27% 44%  
89 13% 17%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.5%  
93 0.5% 1.2%  
94 0.6% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.0%  
64 5% 97%  
65 13% 92%  
66 18% 79%  
67 16% 60% Median
68 21% 44%  
69 13% 23%  
70 7% 11%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 1.3% 99.5%  
54 3% 98%  
55 6% 95%  
56 12% 88%  
57 19% 76% Median
58 24% 57%  
59 17% 33%  
60 10% 16%  
61 4% 6%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.6% Majority
52 5% 98%  
53 5% 93%  
54 10% 88%  
55 29% 78%  
56 12% 49% Median
57 16% 37%  
58 14% 21%  
59 4% 7%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.4%  
48 3% 98%  
49 6% 95%  
50 13% 89%  
51 21% 76% Median, Majority
52 24% 56%  
53 20% 31%  
54 7% 12%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.5% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.8%  
46 3% 97%  
47 7% 93%  
48 20% 86%  
49 24% 66%  
50 20% 42% Median
51 13% 22% Majority
52 5% 9%  
53 3% 4%  
54 1.1% 1.5%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.5% 99.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 97%  
43 15% 92%  
44 16% 77%  
45 13% 61% Median
46 29% 49%  
47 9% 20%  
48 5% 11%  
49 4% 6%  
50 0.9% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.5% 99.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 97%  
43 15% 92%  
44 16% 77%  
45 13% 61% Median
46 29% 49%  
47 9% 20%  
48 5% 11%  
49 4% 6%  
50 0.9% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 5% 97%  
41 10% 93%  
42 18% 82% Last Result
43 24% 65%  
44 19% 40% Median
45 12% 22%  
46 6% 10%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.0% 1.4%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 4% 97%  
37 17% 93%  
38 15% 76%  
39 18% 60% Median
40 20% 42%  
41 13% 22%  
42 6% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.3% 99.3%  
34 4% 98%  
35 8% 94%  
36 15% 87%  
37 19% 71% Median
38 21% 52%  
39 17% 31%  
40 6% 14%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100% Last Result
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.3%  
25 7% 97%  
26 17% 90%  
27 18% 73%  
28 24% 55% Median
29 16% 31%  
30 10% 16%  
31 5% 6%  
32 1.1% 1.4%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations