Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–27 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.1%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Eesti 200 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 32 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Reformierakond 30 31 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Erakond Isamaa 14 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
28 3% 98.9%  
29 8% 96%  
30 13% 89%  
31 23% 76%  
32 18% 52% Median
33 18% 34%  
34 10% 16%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.5% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.7%  
28 4% 98.8%  
29 8% 95%  
30 16% 87% Last Result
31 23% 71% Median
32 22% 48%  
33 13% 26%  
34 8% 13%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.0% 1.4%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 9% 97%  
20 16% 87%  
21 26% 72% Median
22 24% 46%  
23 14% 22%  
24 6% 8%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 5% 99.6%  
8 24% 95%  
9 37% 71% Median
10 25% 34%  
11 8% 9%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 8% 99.8%  
6 21% 92%  
7 47% 71% Median
8 19% 24%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 4% 11%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 85 100% 82–86 81–87 80–87 79–88
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 63 100% 61–66 60–66 59–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 62 100% 59–64 58–65 58–66 56–67
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 53 88% 50–56 50–56 49–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 53 87% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 8% 45–50 44–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 48 7% 45–50 44–51 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 59 48 7% 45–50 44–51 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 41 0% 38–43 37–44 37–44 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 39 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 38 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.9% 99.7%  
80 2% 98.8%  
81 4% 97%  
82 5% 93%  
83 11% 88%  
84 22% 77% Median
85 25% 55%  
86 20% 30%  
87 8% 10%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
58 1.1% 99.7%  
59 2% 98.5%  
60 4% 96%  
61 8% 92%  
62 19% 84%  
63 24% 65% Median
64 19% 41%  
65 12% 22%  
66 6% 11%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.8% 1.0%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.8%  
57 1.3% 99.2%  
58 4% 98%  
59 7% 94%  
60 11% 88%  
61 18% 76% Median
62 18% 58%  
63 19% 40%  
64 12% 21%  
65 6% 9%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.4%  
49 3% 98.5%  
50 7% 95%  
51 10% 88% Majority
52 17% 79%  
53 20% 61% Median
54 15% 41%  
55 15% 25%  
56 7% 11%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 1.4% 99.4%  
49 4% 98%  
50 8% 94%  
51 13% 87% Majority
52 18% 74% Median
53 19% 56%  
54 17% 37%  
55 10% 20%  
56 7% 10%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.9% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.3%  
44 3% 98%  
45 9% 94%  
46 12% 86%  
47 19% 73%  
48 19% 55% Median
49 17% 35%  
50 10% 19%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 4% 97%  
45 10% 94%  
46 17% 84%  
47 17% 67% Median
48 20% 50%  
49 16% 30%  
50 7% 15%  
51 5% 7% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 4% 97%  
45 10% 94%  
46 17% 84%  
47 17% 67% Median
48 20% 50%  
49 16% 30%  
50 7% 15%  
51 5% 7% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.5% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 9% 95%  
39 17% 86%  
40 17% 69% Median
41 22% 52%  
42 14% 30%  
43 9% 16%  
44 5% 7% Last Result
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.4% 99.6%  
35 4% 98%  
36 8% 94%  
37 13% 86%  
38 22% 74%  
39 19% 52% Median
40 17% 33%  
41 9% 16%  
42 4% 6% Last Result
43 2% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 4% 98%  
36 8% 94%  
37 18% 86%  
38 20% 68% Median
39 21% 47%  
40 14% 26%  
41 8% 13%  
42 4% 5%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100% Last Result
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.6%  
25 4% 98%  
26 11% 94%  
27 15% 83%  
28 22% 69% Median
29 23% 46%  
30 14% 23%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations