Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 15–28 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Eesti 200 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 39 36–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond 30 29 26–31 25–32 25–33 24–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 14 6 5–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Eesti 200 0 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.7%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 8% 96%  
37 12% 89%  
38 13% 76%  
39 18% 63% Median
40 21% 45%  
41 8% 23%  
42 9% 15%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.9%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.8%  
25 4% 99.1%  
26 10% 95%  
27 12% 84%  
28 17% 72%  
29 20% 55% Median
30 16% 36% Last Result
31 12% 19%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.8% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 7% 98%  
17 17% 91%  
18 20% 73%  
19 28% 53% Median
20 15% 26%  
21 8% 11%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.2% 99.7%  
5 9% 99.5%  
6 33% 91%  
7 37% 57% Median
8 17% 21%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 2% 93%  
5 40% 91%  
6 38% 51% Median
7 12% 14%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 9% 51% Median
5 34% 42%  
6 7% 8%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 86 100% 83–90 82–90 82–93 81–95
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 68 100% 64–71 64–72 63–73 62–75
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 58 99.9% 54–61 54–62 53–63 52–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 53 80% 49–56 48–56 48–57 46–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 63% 48–54 47–55 46–56 45–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 47 8% 44–50 43–51 43–52 42–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 46 2% 43–49 42–50 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 41 0% 38–44 37–44 36–45 34–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 41 0% 38–44 37–44 36–45 34–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 36 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–38 27–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 25 0% 23–28 22–28 22–29 20–30

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 100%  
81 1.2% 99.8%  
82 5% 98.6%  
83 13% 94%  
84 14% 81%  
85 10% 67%  
86 7% 57%  
87 8% 50% Median
88 14% 42%  
89 14% 28%  
90 10% 14%  
91 1.1% 4%  
92 0.3% 3%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 1.5% 2%  
95 0.6% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.9% 99.7%  
63 2% 98.8%  
64 8% 96%  
65 9% 88%  
66 14% 79%  
67 12% 65%  
68 11% 53% Median
69 13% 42%  
70 10% 29%  
71 11% 20%  
72 4% 8%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9% Majority
52 0.8% 99.7%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 7% 97%  
55 12% 90%  
56 10% 78%  
57 13% 68%  
58 15% 55% Median
59 19% 40%  
60 9% 21%  
61 4% 12%  
62 3% 8%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.5% 0.9%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 1.1% 99.3%  
48 4% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 10% 90%  
51 14% 80% Last Result, Majority
52 13% 65%  
53 15% 52%  
54 12% 37% Median
55 14% 25%  
56 6% 11%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.7%  
46 2% 98.7%  
47 3% 97%  
48 9% 94%  
49 8% 85%  
50 13% 76%  
51 18% 63% Majority
52 18% 45% Median
53 11% 27%  
54 9% 17%  
55 4% 8%  
56 3% 4% Last Result
57 0.7% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 3% 98%  
44 8% 94%  
45 12% 87%  
46 14% 75%  
47 13% 61%  
48 15% 48% Median
49 14% 33%  
50 11% 19%  
51 4% 8% Majority
52 2% 4%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 1.2% 99.2%  
42 5% 98% Last Result
43 9% 93%  
44 12% 84%  
45 15% 73%  
46 22% 58% Median
47 12% 35%  
48 9% 23%  
49 8% 14%  
50 5% 7%  
51 1.1% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.9%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 98.5%  
36 1.0% 98%  
37 5% 97%  
38 13% 92%  
39 9% 79%  
40 10% 70%  
41 17% 60%  
42 23% 42% Median
43 9% 19%  
44 6% 10%  
45 2% 5%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 98.5%  
36 1.0% 98%  
37 5% 97%  
38 13% 92%  
39 9% 79%  
40 10% 70%  
41 17% 60%  
42 23% 42% Median
43 9% 19%  
44 6% 10%  
45 2% 5%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 0.6% 99.0%  
32 8% 98%  
33 16% 90%  
34 8% 75%  
35 9% 67%  
36 27% 58% Median
37 19% 31%  
38 5% 12%  
39 4% 8%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 1.1% 99.4%  
29 1.1% 98%  
30 3% 97%  
31 10% 95%  
32 8% 84%  
33 14% 76%  
34 19% 62%  
35 15% 43% Median
36 17% 28%  
37 6% 11%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.3% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 4% 98% Last Result
23 9% 93%  
24 17% 84%  
25 23% 67%  
26 19% 44% Median
27 14% 25%  
28 8% 11%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.7% 1.1%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations