Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 24–29 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 26.3% 24.5–28.1% 24.1–28.6% 23.6–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.1% 21.0–28.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Eesti 200 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 30 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond 27 27 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 9 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 14 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.2%  
27 7% 96%  
28 15% 89%  
29 19% 74%  
30 24% 55% Last Result, Median
31 15% 31%  
32 8% 16%  
33 5% 7%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.6%  
25 12% 96%  
26 18% 84%  
27 17% 66% Last Result, Median
28 24% 49%  
29 15% 25%  
30 6% 10%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.9% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 7% 98%  
18 15% 91%  
19 24% 76%  
20 24% 52% Median
21 18% 29%  
22 8% 11%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 13% 98%  
9 36% 85% Median
10 30% 49%  
11 14% 19%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 27% 96%  
7 40% 70% Median
8 22% 30%  
9 7% 8%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 9% 99.7%  
6 28% 91%  
7 40% 63% Median
8 18% 22%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0% 22%  
4 12% 22%  
5 9% 10%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 77 100% 74–79 73–80 72–80 70–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 57 99.8% 54–60 54–61 53–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 56 99.6% 53–59 53–60 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 49 27% 47–52 46–53 45–53 44–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 47 4% 44–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 46 3% 44–49 43–50 42–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 46 3% 44–49 43–50 42–51 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0.1% 41–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 37 0% 34–39 33–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 29 0% 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.4%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 6% 97%  
74 8% 91%  
75 11% 83%  
76 16% 73%  
77 19% 56% Median
78 18% 38%  
79 13% 20%  
80 5% 6%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.8% Majority
52 1.3% 99.4%  
53 2% 98%  
54 10% 96%  
55 10% 86%  
56 15% 75%  
57 15% 60% Last Result, Median
58 21% 45%  
59 12% 24%  
60 7% 12%  
61 4% 6%  
62 0.9% 1.3%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.6% Last Result, Majority
52 3% 98.8%  
53 7% 96%  
54 9% 89%  
55 13% 80%  
56 18% 67%  
57 20% 49% Median
58 12% 28%  
59 9% 17%  
60 5% 7%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.7%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 5% 97%  
47 15% 92%  
48 10% 77%  
49 22% 67%  
50 19% 46% Median
51 11% 27% Majority
52 10% 16%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 1.4% 99.5%  
43 3% 98%  
44 6% 95%  
45 13% 90%  
46 21% 76%  
47 16% 56% Median
48 16% 40%  
49 15% 24%  
50 5% 9%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.8% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.7%  
43 4% 97%  
44 10% 93%  
45 18% 82%  
46 20% 65% Median
47 17% 45%  
48 13% 27%  
49 8% 14%  
50 3% 5%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.7%  
43 4% 97%  
44 10% 93%  
45 18% 82%  
46 20% 65% Median
47 17% 45%  
48 13% 27%  
49 8% 14%  
50 3% 5%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 13% 88%  
43 16% 76% Median
44 20% 60%  
45 18% 40%  
46 11% 21%  
47 6% 10%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.7% 1.1%  
50 0.4% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 5% 97%  
37 9% 92%  
38 17% 83%  
39 26% 67% Median
40 15% 41%  
41 13% 26%  
42 8% 13%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.5% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 9% 96%  
35 12% 88%  
36 15% 76% Median
37 22% 61%  
38 20% 38%  
39 11% 19%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.6%  
33 4% 98.9%  
34 7% 95%  
35 13% 87%  
36 20% 75%  
37 19% 54% Median
38 18% 36%  
39 10% 17%  
40 4% 8%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.8% 1.0%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.0% 99.6%  
26 6% 98.6%  
27 9% 93%  
28 24% 84%  
29 19% 60% Median
30 17% 41%  
31 12% 24%  
32 9% 12%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations