Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 January–4 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 30.5% 28.7–32.4% 28.2–33.0% 27.7–33.4% 26.9–34.4%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 26.6% 24.9–28.5% 24.4–29.0% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Eesti 200 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 36 33–39 33–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Reformierakond 30 31 28–33 28–34 27–35 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 9–14
Erakond Isamaa 14 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.7%  
32 3% 98.7%  
33 7% 96%  
34 14% 88%  
35 16% 75%  
36 23% 59% Median
37 17% 35%  
38 9% 19%  
39 6% 10%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 6% 96%  
29 13% 90%  
30 20% 77% Last Result
31 22% 57% Median
32 17% 35%  
33 11% 18%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 8% 98%  
13 29% 90%  
14 28% 61% Median
15 15% 33%  
16 14% 17%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 6% 99.6%  
10 10% 94%  
11 56% 84% Median
12 14% 28%  
13 9% 14%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 25% 96%  
7 41% 70% Median
8 24% 29%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 37%  
2 0% 37%  
3 0% 37%  
4 13% 37%  
5 23% 25%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 2% 7%  
5 4% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 81 100% 78–83 77–84 76–85 74–86
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 67 100% 64–69 63–70 62–71 61–73
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 54 95% 51–57 50–58 50–59 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 52 67% 49–55 48–56 48–56 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 50 39% 47–53 46–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 49 25% 46–52 45–53 45–54 43–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 49 25% 46–52 45–53 45–54 43–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 47 7% 44–50 44–51 43–51 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 45 0.5% 42–48 41–49 41–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–46 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–29 21–30

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 1.3% 99.3%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 95%  
78 10% 93%  
79 21% 83%  
80 11% 62%  
81 6% 51% Median
82 15% 45%  
83 22% 30%  
84 5% 8%  
85 1.3% 3%  
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 1.2% 99.5%  
62 2% 98%  
63 4% 96%  
64 9% 92%  
65 11% 82%  
66 21% 71%  
67 12% 50% Median
68 13% 38%  
69 16% 25%  
70 6% 9%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.7% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 3% 98%  
51 9% 95% Majority
52 11% 86%  
53 12% 74%  
54 18% 62% Median
55 19% 44%  
56 10% 25% Last Result
57 7% 15%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 3% 98%  
49 8% 94%  
50 19% 86%  
51 11% 67% Last Result, Majority
52 16% 56% Median
53 14% 40%  
54 14% 25%  
55 6% 11%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.4% 99.4%  
46 4% 98%  
47 9% 94%  
48 9% 84%  
49 22% 75%  
50 14% 53% Median
51 15% 39% Majority
52 10% 24%  
53 9% 14%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.4%  
45 4% 98%  
46 6% 94%  
47 10% 88%  
48 22% 79%  
49 16% 57% Median
50 16% 41%  
51 11% 25% Majority
52 7% 14%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.4%  
45 4% 98%  
46 6% 94%  
47 10% 88%  
48 22% 79%  
49 16% 57% Median
50 16% 41%  
51 11% 25% Majority
52 7% 14%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.6% Last Result
43 2% 98%  
44 7% 96%  
45 11% 89%  
46 15% 78%  
47 24% 63% Median
48 16% 39%  
49 9% 23%  
50 7% 13%  
51 4% 7% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 8% 95%  
43 17% 87%  
44 13% 69%  
45 16% 56% Median
46 20% 40%  
47 9% 20%  
48 6% 11%  
49 4% 6%  
50 0.9% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.7%  
39 6% 96%  
40 12% 89%  
41 17% 78%  
42 20% 61% Median
43 17% 40%  
44 12% 24%  
45 6% 11% Last Result
46 3% 5%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.4% 99.5%  
34 4% 98%  
35 7% 95%  
36 11% 88%  
37 22% 76%  
38 18% 54% Median
39 16% 36%  
40 10% 20%  
41 6% 10%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.2% 1.5%  
44 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.8%  
22 4% 98.9% Last Result
23 8% 95%  
24 24% 87%  
25 21% 63% Median
26 16% 42%  
27 17% 26%  
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 3%  
30 1.0% 1.2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations