Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 4–7 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 26.5% 24.9–28.2% 24.4–28.7% 24.0–29.1% 23.2–30.0%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 24.5% 22.9–26.2% 22.4–26.6% 22.1–27.1% 21.3–27.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.9% 17.5–20.5% 17.1–20.9% 16.8–21.3% 16.1–22.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.5% 10.4–12.8% 10.1–13.2% 9.8–13.5% 9.3–14.2%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.4–10.1% 7.1–10.4% 6.7–11.0%
Eesti 200 0.0% 6.4% 5.6–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.1–8.0% 4.8–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 29 27–31 27–32 26–33 25–33
Eesti Reformierakond 30 26 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 17–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 10–13 10–13 9–14 9–14
Erakond Isamaa 14 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.9%  
26 3% 98.9%  
27 10% 95% Last Result
28 18% 86%  
29 26% 68% Median
30 21% 42%  
31 13% 21%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.7%  
24 7% 98%  
25 14% 91%  
26 27% 77% Median
27 22% 50%  
28 15% 28%  
29 8% 13%  
30 4% 4% Last Result
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 4% 99.5%  
18 12% 96%  
19 20% 84%  
20 25% 64% Median
21 24% 39%  
22 10% 15%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 21% 96%  
11 32% 74% Median
12 28% 42%  
13 11% 14%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 28% 96%  
8 27% 68% Median
9 32% 41%  
10 8% 9%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 3% 98%  
5 32% 95%  
6 47% 63% Median
7 13% 16%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 76 100% 74–78 73–79 73–79 72–80
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 56 99.9% 53–58 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 55 98.7% 53–57 52–58 51–58 50–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 50 29% 47–51 46–52 46–52 45–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 16% 46–51 46–52 45–52 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 47 1.3% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 46 1.3% 44–49 43–49 43–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 46 1.3% 44–49 43–49 43–50 42–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 40 0% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 38 0% 36–40 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–39 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 31 0% 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.3% 100%  
72 2% 99.7%  
73 5% 98%  
74 14% 93%  
75 20% 79% Median
76 24% 59%  
77 20% 35%  
78 9% 15%  
79 4% 6%  
80 1.5% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9% Majority
52 2% 99.3%  
53 7% 97%  
54 10% 90%  
55 25% 80% Median
56 20% 54%  
57 17% 35% Last Result
58 11% 18%  
59 5% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 1.1% 99.9%  
51 2% 98.7% Last Result, Majority
52 5% 97%  
53 15% 92%  
54 21% 77% Median
55 19% 56%  
56 21% 36%  
57 8% 15%  
58 5% 7%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.8%  
46 9% 98.8%  
47 15% 90%  
48 11% 76%  
49 10% 65% Median
50 26% 55%  
51 20% 29% Majority
52 8% 9%  
53 0.5% 1.3%  
54 0.5% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 8% 97%  
47 14% 88%  
48 24% 75% Median
49 20% 51%  
50 14% 31%  
51 11% 16% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.0%  
44 8% 96%  
45 14% 88%  
46 18% 74% Median
47 25% 56%  
48 16% 31%  
49 9% 15%  
50 5% 6%  
51 0.9% 1.3% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.4% 99.6%  
43 7% 98%  
44 9% 91%  
45 24% 81% Median
46 19% 58%  
47 17% 38%  
48 9% 22%  
49 8% 13%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.1% 1.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.4% 99.6%  
43 7% 98%  
44 9% 91%  
45 24% 81% Median
46 19% 58%  
47 17% 38%  
48 9% 22%  
49 8% 13%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.1% 1.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.2%  
38 7% 96%  
39 19% 89%  
40 22% 70% Median
41 18% 48%  
42 19% 30% Last Result
43 7% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 2% 99.7%  
35 6% 98%  
36 17% 92%  
37 18% 76% Median
38 24% 58%  
39 13% 34%  
40 12% 21%  
41 5% 9%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 7% 97%  
33 13% 90%  
34 20% 77% Median
35 26% 57%  
36 15% 31%  
37 10% 16%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.1%  
29 9% 96%  
30 19% 87%  
31 25% 68% Median
32 19% 43%  
33 11% 24%  
34 10% 13%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations