Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–11 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 30.6% 28.8–32.5% 28.3–33.1% 27.8–33.5% 27.0–34.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.6% 16.1–19.2% 15.7–19.7% 15.4–20.1% 14.7–20.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Eesti 200 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 35 33–37 32–38 31–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond 27 31 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 14 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
31 2% 99.6%  
32 4% 97%  
33 12% 93%  
34 19% 81%  
35 20% 62% Median
36 22% 42%  
37 12% 20%  
38 4% 8%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6% Last Result
28 5% 98%  
29 11% 93%  
30 14% 82%  
31 30% 68% Median
32 18% 38%  
33 12% 20%  
34 6% 8%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 4% 98.9%  
17 13% 95%  
18 24% 82%  
19 30% 58% Median
20 15% 28%  
21 9% 12%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 8% 99.3%  
8 33% 91%  
9 35% 58% Median
10 17% 23%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 18% 98%  
7 43% 80% Median
8 28% 37%  
9 8% 10%  
10 1.3% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 85 100% 83–87 83–87 82–88 81–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 66 100% 64–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 61 100% 59–63 58–64 57–65 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 54 96% 51–56 51–57 50–57 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 51 63% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 51 63% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 50 37% 47–52 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 4% 45–50 44–50 44–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 40 0% 38–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 27 0% 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.6% 99.9%  
82 4% 99.2%  
83 10% 96%  
84 20% 86%  
85 31% 66% Median
86 24% 35%  
87 8% 11%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.5% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.4%  
63 5% 97%  
64 10% 92%  
65 14% 82%  
66 23% 68% Median
67 24% 45%  
68 12% 21%  
69 6% 9%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.5% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.4%  
58 6% 97%  
59 10% 91%  
60 17% 81%  
61 20% 64% Median
62 22% 44%  
63 12% 22%  
64 7% 10%  
65 3% 3%  
66 0.6% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.1%  
51 8% 96% Majority
52 10% 88%  
53 18% 78%  
54 24% 60% Median
55 19% 36%  
56 9% 17%  
57 6% 8%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.7% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.4%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 20% 83%  
51 21% 63% Median, Majority
52 20% 41%  
53 11% 21%  
54 6% 10%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.4%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 20% 83%  
51 21% 63% Median, Majority
52 20% 41%  
53 11% 21%  
54 6% 10%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.7% 99.7%  
46 3% 99.0%  
47 6% 96%  
48 11% 90%  
49 20% 79%  
50 21% 59% Median
51 20% 37% Majority
52 9% 17%  
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 6% 98%  
45 9% 92%  
46 19% 83%  
47 24% 64% Median
48 18% 40%  
49 10% 22%  
50 8% 12%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.7% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 6% 97%  
42 12% 91%  
43 22% 79%  
44 22% 57% Median
45 18% 35% Last Result
46 9% 17%  
47 5% 8%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.7%  
39 4% 98%  
40 9% 94%  
41 20% 85%  
42 16% 65% Median
43 24% 50%  
44 13% 25% Last Result
45 8% 12%  
46 3% 4%  
47 1.1% 1.5%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 3% 99.2%  
37 7% 97%  
38 12% 90%  
39 22% 78%  
40 20% 56% Median
41 17% 36%  
42 10% 19% Last Result
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100% Last Result
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 7% 98%  
26 17% 91%  
27 26% 74%  
28 22% 48% Median
29 13% 26%  
30 8% 13%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.2% 1.3%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations