Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–17 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 31.7% 29.9–33.6% 29.3–34.2% 28.9–34.7% 28.0–35.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Eesti 200 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 37 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond 27 26 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–20
Erakond Isamaa 14 13 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 6% 97%  
35 11% 91%  
36 21% 80%  
37 21% 59% Median
38 15% 38%  
39 15% 23%  
40 5% 9%  
41 2% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.1%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.1%  
24 11% 95%  
25 19% 84%  
26 20% 65% Median
27 20% 44% Last Result
28 16% 24%  
29 6% 9%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 10% 98%  
15 19% 88%  
16 31% 69% Median
17 22% 39%  
18 12% 16%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 5% 99.4%  
12 25% 95%  
13 24% 70% Median
14 24% 46% Last Result
15 17% 22%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.6% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 20% 96%  
8 40% 76% Median
9 26% 36%  
10 9% 10%  
11 1.3% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 79 100% 77–81 77–82 76–82 75–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 67 100% 64–69 64–70 63–70 62–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 63 100% 61–66 60–66 60–67 59–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 59 100% 56–61 56–62 55–62 54–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 59 59 100% 56–61 56–62 55–62 54–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 53 91% 51–55 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 50 48% 48–53 47–54 47–54 45–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 9% 46–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 45 0.3% 43–48 42–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 34 0% 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 24 0% 22–26 22–27 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.5% 99.9%  
76 3% 99.4%  
77 9% 97%  
78 16% 88%  
79 24% 72% Median
80 21% 48%  
81 17% 27%  
82 8% 10%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 1.0% 99.7%  
63 3% 98.6%  
64 8% 95%  
65 16% 88%  
66 20% 71% Median
67 21% 52%  
68 15% 30%  
69 10% 15%  
70 4% 5%  
71 1.0% 1.3%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.5%  
60 5% 98%  
61 14% 93%  
62 14% 79%  
63 20% 65% Median
64 18% 46%  
65 16% 28%  
66 8% 12%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.8% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.6%  
55 3% 98.6%  
56 10% 95%  
57 14% 85%  
58 17% 71% Median
59 23% 55%  
60 15% 31%  
61 11% 16%  
62 4% 6%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.6%  
55 3% 98.6%  
56 10% 95%  
57 14% 85%  
58 17% 71% Median
59 23% 55% Last Result
60 15% 31%  
61 11% 16%  
62 4% 6%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 3% 99.2%  
50 6% 97%  
51 9% 91% Majority
52 18% 82%  
53 20% 64% Median
54 19% 44%  
55 15% 25%  
56 6% 10%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100% Last Result
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 4% 98%  
48 11% 94%  
49 15% 84%  
50 20% 68% Median
51 20% 48% Majority
52 14% 28%  
53 9% 14%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.0% 99.8%  
44 3% 98.8%  
45 6% 96%  
46 15% 90%  
47 19% 75% Median
48 20% 56%  
49 18% 36%  
50 9% 18%  
51 5% 9% Majority
52 3% 3%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 6% 98%  
43 9% 91%  
44 19% 82%  
45 19% 63% Last Result, Median
46 17% 44%  
47 15% 27%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 5%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.4% 99.6%  
39 4% 98%  
40 11% 94%  
41 15% 83%  
42 23% 69% Median
43 17% 45%  
44 14% 29%  
45 10% 15%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.0% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8%  
31 4% 98.7%  
32 10% 95%  
33 15% 85%  
34 21% 70% Median
35 20% 48%  
36 16% 29%  
37 8% 12%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.0% 1.3%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.2%  
22 8% 96% Last Result
23 18% 88%  
24 25% 70% Median
25 18% 44%  
26 17% 26%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations