Opinion Poll by OÜ Faktum & Ariko, 12–18 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 25.3% 23.7–27.0% 23.2–27.5% 22.9–27.9% 22.1–28.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 22.2% 20.7–23.8% 20.3–24.3% 19.9–24.7% 19.2–25.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.1% 16.8–19.7% 16.4–20.1% 16.0–20.5% 15.4–21.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.1% 10.0–12.4% 9.7–12.7% 9.4–13.0% 8.9–13.7%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 11.1% 10.0–12.4% 9.7–12.7% 9.4–13.0% 8.9–13.7%
Eesti 200 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 30 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond 27 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Erakond Isamaa 14 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.6%  
27 4% 98%  
28 14% 94%  
29 21% 81%  
30 22% 60% Last Result, Median
31 19% 38%  
32 11% 18%  
33 5% 8%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 5% 98%  
24 14% 93%  
25 20% 79%  
26 20% 59% Median
27 23% 39% Last Result
28 10% 15%  
29 4% 5%  
30 1.1% 1.4%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 6% 98%  
19 14% 93%  
20 26% 79%  
21 26% 53% Median
22 16% 27%  
23 9% 12%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 10% 98%  
11 29% 88%  
12 32% 59% Median
13 21% 28%  
14 6% 7%  
15 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 11% 98%  
11 31% 87%  
12 34% 56% Median
13 14% 22%  
14 7% 8% Last Result
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0.8% 6%  
5 5% 6%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 77 100% 73–79 72–80 72–80 70–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 62 100% 60–65 59–66 58–66 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 56 99.3% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 54 93% 51–56 50–57 50–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 59 54 93% 51–56 50–57 50–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 51 52% 48–53 47–54 47–55 45–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 49 33% 47–52 46–53 45–53 44–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 47 3% 44–49 43–50 42–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 38 0% 35–40 35–41 34–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 32 0% 30–35 29–35 29–36 28–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 1.0% 99.3%  
72 3% 98%  
73 5% 95%  
74 7% 89%  
75 10% 83%  
76 15% 72%  
77 22% 58% Median
78 18% 36%  
79 12% 18%  
80 5% 5%  
81 0.8% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.8% 99.4%  
58 3% 98.6%  
59 4% 96%  
60 9% 92%  
61 16% 83%  
62 18% 67%  
63 23% 50% Median
64 12% 27%  
65 9% 15%  
66 5% 6%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.3% Majority
52 3% 98%  
53 9% 95%  
54 11% 86%  
55 15% 75%  
56 21% 60% Median
57 15% 39% Last Result
58 16% 24%  
59 5% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 0.9%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 5% 98%  
51 7% 93% Majority
52 16% 86%  
53 19% 70%  
54 21% 51% Median
55 13% 30%  
56 9% 17%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 5% 98%  
51 7% 93% Majority
52 16% 86%  
53 19% 70%  
54 21% 51% Median
55 13% 30%  
56 9% 17%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 3% 98%  
48 9% 95%  
49 12% 85%  
50 22% 74%  
51 17% 52% Median, Majority
52 19% 35%  
53 9% 17%  
54 5% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.7%  
45 2% 98.8%  
46 5% 97%  
47 9% 92%  
48 14% 83%  
49 20% 69%  
50 16% 49% Median
51 19% 33% Majority
52 7% 14%  
53 5% 7%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 6% 97%  
44 9% 92%  
45 13% 82%  
46 15% 69%  
47 21% 54% Median
48 14% 33%  
49 13% 19%  
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 8% 96%  
40 15% 89%  
41 18% 73%  
42 25% 55% Median
43 12% 31%  
44 11% 18% Last Result
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 7% 96%  
40 13% 89%  
41 19% 76%  
42 26% 58% Median
43 13% 32%  
44 10% 19%  
45 6% 9% Last Result
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.7%  
34 3% 98%  
35 8% 95%  
36 15% 87%  
37 14% 72%  
38 24% 58% Median
39 16% 34%  
40 11% 18%  
41 5% 6%  
42 1.3% 2% Last Result
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.4% 99.8%  
29 4% 98%  
30 7% 95%  
31 17% 87%  
32 20% 70%  
33 23% 50% Median
34 13% 27%  
35 9% 13%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.0% 1.3%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations