Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 14–20 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 25.7% 24.2–27.4% 23.7–27.9% 23.3–28.3% 22.6–29.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 24.7% 23.2–26.4% 22.7–26.9% 22.3–27.3% 21.6–28.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 21.3% 19.9–22.9% 19.4–23.4% 19.1–23.8% 18.4–24.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 10.1% 9.0–11.3% 8.7–11.6% 8.5–11.9% 8.0–12.5%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 9.2% 8.2–10.4% 7.9–10.7% 7.7–11.0% 7.3–11.6%
Eesti 200 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.1% 4.1–7.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 0.9% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 28 26–30 26–31 25–32 25–33
Eesti Keskerakond 27 27 25–29 25–29 24–30 24–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 20–27
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 8–12
Erakond Isamaa 14 8 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–11
Eesti 200 0 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 8% 97%  
27 23% 89%  
28 26% 66% Median
29 19% 40%  
30 14% 21% Last Result
31 4% 7%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.6%  
25 8% 96%  
26 27% 88%  
27 20% 60% Last Result, Median
28 24% 41%  
29 12% 17%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 5% 99.5%  
21 11% 95%  
22 23% 84%  
23 27% 61% Median
24 23% 35%  
25 9% 12%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 9% 99.6%  
9 33% 90%  
10 32% 57% Median
11 22% 25%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 6% 99.6%  
8 45% 94% Median
9 31% 49%  
10 13% 18%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 14% 88%  
5 63% 74% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0.4% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 78 100% 76–81 75–82 75–83 74–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 60 100% 57–63 57–63 57–65 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 55 99.6% 53–58 52–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 51 61% 49–54 48–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 50 42% 48–52 47–52 47–53 46–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 47 4% 44–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 47 4% 44–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.3% 43–47 43–48 43–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 38 0% 36–40 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 37 0% 35–39 34–39 34–39 33–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 33 0% 31–35 30–35 30–36 29–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 5% 99.2%  
76 10% 94%  
77 24% 84%  
78 20% 60% Median
79 18% 40%  
80 9% 21%  
81 3% 12%  
82 6% 9%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.3%  
57 10% 98%  
58 16% 88%  
59 19% 72% Median
60 23% 53%  
61 10% 31%  
62 10% 20%  
63 6% 10%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 3%  
66 1.3% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.6% Majority
52 5% 98.5%  
53 12% 94%  
54 18% 82%  
55 19% 63% Median
56 20% 45%  
57 11% 25% Last Result
58 9% 15%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.7%  
48 4% 98%  
49 15% 94%  
50 18% 79%  
51 22% 61% Median, Majority
52 16% 39%  
53 11% 23%  
54 7% 12%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.9% 1.1%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 1.1% 99.6%  
47 4% 98.5%  
48 14% 95%  
49 24% 81%  
50 16% 57% Median
51 23% 42% Majority
52 15% 18%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.9% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 10% 97%  
45 19% 87%  
46 12% 68% Median
47 26% 56%  
48 12% 30%  
49 9% 17%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 10% 97%  
45 19% 87%  
46 12% 68% Median
47 26% 56%  
48 12% 30%  
49 9% 17%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 10% 98%  
44 15% 88%  
45 22% 73% Median
46 25% 51%  
47 17% 26%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.6%  
35 6% 98%  
36 18% 92%  
37 14% 74%  
38 19% 60% Median
39 20% 41%  
40 11% 21%  
41 6% 10%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.6% 1.1%  
44 0.4% 0.4%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 6% 99.2%  
35 8% 93%  
36 33% 85% Median
37 23% 52%  
38 14% 29%  
39 5% 15%  
40 6% 10%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 5% 99.1%  
35 14% 94%  
36 23% 80%  
37 21% 57% Median
38 23% 36%  
39 11% 13%  
40 1.5% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.6%  
30 7% 98.6%  
31 15% 92%  
32 19% 76%  
33 31% 57% Median
34 14% 26%  
35 9% 12%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 0.8%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations