Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 7–20 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 28.0% 27.2–28.8% 26.9–29.1% 26.7–29.3% 26.3–29.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 24.0% 23.2–24.8% 23.0–25.0% 22.8–25.2% 22.4–25.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.0% 16.3–17.7% 16.1–17.9% 16.0–18.1% 15.6–18.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.0% 10.4–11.6% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 10.0% 9.5–10.6% 9.3–10.8% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2%
Eesti 200 0.0% 4.0% 3.7–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.7–3.3% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 2.0% 1.8–2.3% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 33 32–34 32–34 31–35 31–35
Eesti Reformierakond 30 28 27–29 27–29 26–29 26–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 19 18–19 18–20 18–20 17–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
Erakond Isamaa 14 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 4% 99.9%  
32 21% 96%  
33 48% 75% Median
34 23% 27%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 4% 99.8%  
27 41% 95%  
28 38% 55% Median
29 15% 16%  
30 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 35% 98%  
19 53% 63% Median
20 9% 10%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 4% 100%  
11 53% 96% Median
12 41% 43%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 7% 100%  
10 67% 93% Median
11 25% 26%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 79 100% 78–80 78–81 78–81 77–81
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 61 100% 60–62 59–62 59–62 58–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 56 100% 56–58 55–58 55–58 54–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 55 100% 53–56 53–56 53–56 52–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 52 89% 50–53 50–53 50–53 49–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 49 11% 48–51 48–51 48–51 47–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 49 11% 48–51 48–51 48–51 47–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 46 0% 45–48 45–48 45–48 44–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 45 0% 43–45 43–46 43–46 42–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 39 0% 38–40 38–41 37–41 37–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 38 0% 37–39 37–39 36–40 36–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 30 0% 29–31 29–31 29–32 28–32

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.5% 100%  
78 11% 99.5%  
79 43% 89%  
80 40% 46% Median
81 5% 6%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.6% 100%  
59 6% 99.3%  
60 34% 93%  
61 43% 59% Median
62 14% 16%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.6% 100%  
55 7% 99.4%  
56 43% 92%  
57 36% 50% Median
58 12% 14%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 2% 99.9%  
53 10% 98%  
54 31% 88% Median
55 41% 57%  
56 15% 17% Last Result
57 1.2% 1.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.5% 100%  
50 11% 99.5%  
51 21% 89% Majority
52 52% 67% Median
53 13% 15%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 2% 99.9%  
48 13% 98%  
49 52% 85% Median
50 21% 33%  
51 11% 11% Majority
52 0.5% 0.5%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 2% 99.9%  
48 13% 98%  
49 52% 85% Median
50 21% 33%  
51 11% 11% Majority
52 0.5% 0.5%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 1.3% 99.9%  
45 15% 98.7%  
46 41% 83%  
47 31% 43% Median
48 10% 12%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 2% 99.9% Last Result
43 12% 98%  
44 36% 86% Median
45 43% 50%  
46 7% 8%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 3% 99.9%  
38 19% 97%  
39 51% 78% Median
40 20% 27%  
41 6% 7%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 4% 99.7%  
37 32% 96%  
38 41% 64% Median
39 19% 23%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 23% 98%  
30 42% 75% Median
31 29% 33%  
32 4% 4%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations