Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–24 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 30.5% 28.7–32.4% 28.1–32.9% 27.7–33.4% 26.8–34.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.0–24.1% 18.3–25.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.8% 17.3–20.4% 16.8–20.9% 16.5–21.3% 15.8–22.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.9%
Eesti 200 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 35 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond 27 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–25
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 9–16
Erakond Isamaa 14 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–12
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
31 2% 99.6%  
32 5% 98%  
33 11% 93%  
34 17% 82%  
35 23% 65% Median
36 21% 42%  
37 11% 20%  
38 6% 9%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 1.0%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 4% 98%  
22 14% 94%  
23 23% 80%  
24 24% 57% Median
25 18% 33%  
26 10% 15%  
27 4% 5% Last Result
28 1.0% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 7% 98%  
19 17% 90%  
20 26% 73% Median
21 25% 47%  
22 13% 22%  
23 7% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.0% 100%  
10 4% 99.0%  
11 26% 95%  
12 20% 70% Median
13 36% 50%  
14 10% 14%  
15 4% 4% Last Result
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 4% 99.7%  
8 20% 95%  
9 39% 75% Median
10 26% 36%  
11 9% 11%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.2% 2%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 79 100% 78–81 77–82 76–82 75–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 65 100% 62–67 62–68 61–68 60–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 59 100% 56–62 56–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 57 99.9% 54–59 54–60 53–60 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 57 99.9% 54–59 54–60 53–60 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 56 99.6% 53–58 52–59 52–59 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 47 5% 45–50 44–51 44–51 43–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.3% 43–47 42–49 42–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 44 0% 42–47 41–47 41–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 44 0.1% 42–47 41–47 41–48 40–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 36 0% 34–38 33–39 33–40 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 33 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.9% 99.7%  
76 3% 98.8%  
77 5% 96%  
78 16% 91%  
79 31% 75% Median
80 17% 43%  
81 19% 26%  
82 6% 7%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.5%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 3% 99.1%  
62 6% 96%  
63 16% 90%  
64 18% 74% Median
65 21% 56%  
66 19% 35%  
67 9% 16%  
68 5% 7%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.7% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.1%  
56 7% 97%  
57 8% 90% Last Result
58 19% 81%  
59 28% 63% Median
60 15% 35%  
61 9% 20%  
62 7% 10%  
63 3% 3%  
64 0.6% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 1.2% 99.6%  
53 3% 98%  
54 7% 95%  
55 16% 89%  
56 20% 73% Median
57 20% 53%  
58 18% 33%  
59 8% 15%  
60 5% 7%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 1.2% 99.6%  
53 3% 98%  
54 7% 95%  
55 16% 89%  
56 20% 73% Median
57 20% 53%  
58 18% 33%  
59 8% 15% Last Result
60 5% 7%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.6% Majority
52 4% 98.5%  
53 5% 94%  
54 21% 89%  
55 14% 69% Median
56 26% 54%  
57 14% 28%  
58 9% 15%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.4% 99.6%  
44 4% 98%  
45 8% 94% Last Result
46 17% 86%  
47 20% 69% Median
48 18% 49%  
49 17% 30%  
50 8% 13%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.3%  
42 4% 98%  
43 9% 94%  
44 14% 84%  
45 26% 71% Median
46 14% 44%  
47 20% 30%  
48 4% 10%  
49 4% 5%  
50 1.0% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 5% 98%  
42 8% 92%  
43 19% 84%  
44 20% 65% Median
45 20% 46%  
46 15% 26%  
47 6% 10%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.9% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 5% 98%  
42 10% 93%  
43 16% 83%  
44 20% 67% Last Result, Median
45 22% 47%  
46 11% 25%  
47 9% 14%  
48 3% 5%  
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 5% 98%  
34 10% 93%  
35 19% 83%  
36 21% 64% Median
37 18% 43%  
38 15% 24%  
39 6% 9%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.5% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 7% 97%  
31 14% 89%  
32 20% 75% Median
33 25% 56%  
34 12% 30%  
35 11% 18%  
36 5% 7%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations