Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 26–28 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 26.6% 24.9–28.3% 24.4–28.8% 24.1–29.2% 23.3–30.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 24.5% 22.9–26.2% 22.5–26.7% 22.1–27.1% 21.3–28.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.3% 15.9–18.8% 15.5–19.2% 15.2–19.6% 14.5–20.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.9% 10.7–13.2% 10.4–13.6% 10.1–13.9% 9.6–14.6%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.7% 8.5–12.0% 8.0–12.6%
Eesti 200 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 31 29–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond 27 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 10–16
Erakond Isamaa 14 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–13
Eesti 200 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 6% 97%  
29 18% 91%  
30 18% 72% Last Result
31 21% 54% Median
32 16% 33%  
33 11% 18%  
34 5% 6%  
35 1.1% 1.5%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 11% 94%  
27 16% 83% Last Result
28 29% 67% Median
29 17% 38%  
30 12% 21%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.1%  
17 10% 95%  
18 27% 85%  
19 24% 58% Median
20 20% 34%  
21 10% 14%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 5% 99.6%  
11 19% 94%  
12 29% 76% Median
13 30% 46%  
14 12% 16%  
15 3% 4% Last Result
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 4% 99.7%  
9 23% 96%  
10 34% 73% Median
11 26% 39%  
12 11% 13%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 0% 14%  
4 6% 14%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 78 100% 75–80 74–81 73–81 72–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 60 100% 57–62 56–63 56–64 54–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 59 100% 56–61 55–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 53 91% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 53 91% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 51% 48–54 48–54 47–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 50 37% 47–52 46–53 46–53 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 47 3% 45–50 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 41 0% 39–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 41 0% 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 100%  
72 1.0% 99.8%  
73 2% 98.8%  
74 4% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 11% 87%  
77 19% 76%  
78 17% 57% Median
79 21% 40%  
80 13% 19%  
81 5% 6%  
82 1.0% 1.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 1.1% 99.4%  
56 4% 98%  
57 7% 94%  
58 11% 86%  
59 15% 75%  
60 22% 60% Median
61 17% 38%  
62 11% 21%  
63 6% 9%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.6%  
55 4% 98%  
56 5% 93%  
57 11% 89% Last Result
58 24% 78%  
59 17% 54% Median
60 12% 37%  
61 15% 24%  
62 7% 10%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 6% 97%  
51 10% 91% Majority
52 12% 82%  
53 24% 70% Median
54 18% 46%  
55 15% 28%  
56 9% 14%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 6% 97%  
51 10% 91% Majority
52 12% 82%  
53 24% 70% Median
54 18% 46%  
55 15% 28%  
56 9% 14%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 9% 95%  
49 13% 86%  
50 22% 73% Median
51 16% 51% Majority
52 14% 35%  
53 10% 20%  
54 7% 10%  
55 3% 3%  
56 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 1.2% 99.3%  
46 4% 98%  
47 12% 94%  
48 13% 82%  
49 16% 70%  
50 17% 54% Median
51 20% 37% Majority
52 10% 18%  
53 6% 8%  
54 1.5% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.7%  
43 3% 98.9%  
44 6% 96%  
45 11% 90%  
46 18% 79%  
47 18% 61% Median
48 22% 43%  
49 10% 21%  
50 7% 11%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.6% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 3% 99.1%  
40 5% 97%  
41 12% 91%  
42 16% 79%  
43 24% 63% Median
44 15% 40%  
45 14% 25% Last Result
46 7% 11%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 6% 97%  
39 13% 90%  
40 17% 77%  
41 21% 60% Median
42 17% 39%  
43 12% 21%  
44 6% 9% Last Result
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.4% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 8% 93%  
39 15% 85%  
40 19% 70% Median
41 22% 51%  
42 13% 28% Last Result
43 8% 15%  
44 5% 7%  
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 4% 98%  
29 10% 94%  
30 15% 84%  
31 25% 69% Median
32 19% 43%  
33 13% 24%  
34 8% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.7%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations