Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24 February–1 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 12.3% 11.1–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.5% 9.8–15.2%
Eesti 200 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 31 27–32 27–32 26–33 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond 27 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 19 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Erakond Isamaa 14 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 10–16
Eesti 200 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 4% 99.4%  
27 13% 95%  
28 10% 82%  
29 3% 71%  
30 13% 68% Last Result
31 34% 56% Median
32 18% 22%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.1% 0.7%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.7%  
23 5% 98%  
24 14% 93%  
25 18% 79%  
26 21% 61% Median
27 18% 40% Last Result
28 14% 22%  
29 6% 8%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.1%  
17 14% 96%  
18 25% 82%  
19 21% 58% Median
20 19% 36%  
21 12% 17%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.5% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 11% 96%  
12 29% 84%  
13 28% 55% Median
14 19% 28%  
15 7% 9% Last Result
16 2% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 5% 99.5%  
11 21% 95%  
12 27% 74% Median
13 25% 48%  
14 17% 23% Last Result
15 5% 6%  
16 0.9% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0% 18%  
4 9% 18%  
5 9% 9%  
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 75 100% 72–78 71–78 70–79 69–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 61 100% 59–65 57–65 57–65 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 56 99.4% 53–59 52–59 52–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 55 98% 52–58 51–59 51–59 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 55 98% 52–58 51–59 51–59 49–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 58% 48–55 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 49 30% 46–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 45 0.3% 42–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 43 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 39 0% 36–42 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 4% 97%  
72 6% 93%  
73 9% 86%  
74 14% 77%  
75 20% 63%  
76 16% 42% Median
77 13% 26%  
78 10% 13%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.4% 0.4%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.7% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 99.1%  
57 3% 98%  
58 5% 95%  
59 11% 90%  
60 12% 79%  
61 19% 67%  
62 19% 48% Median
63 10% 30%  
64 9% 19%  
65 8% 11%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.4% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 94%  
54 11% 87%  
55 16% 77%  
56 18% 61%  
57 17% 43% Last Result, Median
58 13% 26%  
59 8% 13%  
60 3% 5%  
61 0.9% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 1.5% 99.2%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 8% 95%  
53 11% 87%  
54 14% 76%  
55 16% 62%  
56 16% 46% Median
57 15% 31%  
58 10% 15%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.0% 1.3%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 1.5% 99.2%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 8% 95%  
53 11% 87%  
54 14% 76%  
55 16% 62%  
56 16% 46% Median
57 15% 31%  
58 10% 15%  
59 4% 6% Last Result
60 1.0% 1.3%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.7%  
47 2% 98.9%  
48 7% 97%  
49 8% 89%  
50 23% 81%  
51 15% 58% Median, Majority
52 16% 43%  
53 10% 27%  
54 6% 17%  
55 7% 11%  
56 3% 4% Last Result
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 5% 97%  
46 9% 91%  
47 8% 83%  
48 13% 75%  
49 17% 61%  
50 14% 45% Median
51 21% 30% Majority
52 6% 9%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.4% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.4% 99.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 7% 96%  
43 13% 89%  
44 18% 76%  
45 18% 58% Median
46 15% 40%  
47 12% 25%  
48 8% 13%  
49 4% 5%  
50 1.2% 1.5%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 5% 96%  
40 9% 91%  
41 16% 83%  
42 20% 67%  
43 15% 47% Median
44 14% 32% Last Result
45 10% 18%  
46 6% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 5% 97%  
40 8% 92%  
41 12% 84%  
42 14% 72%  
43 20% 57%  
44 15% 38% Median
45 15% 23% Last Result
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.7%  
35 3% 98.8%  
36 13% 96%  
37 13% 83%  
38 13% 70%  
39 20% 58% Median
40 18% 38%  
41 8% 20%  
42 8% 12% Last Result
43 3% 4%  
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.0% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.9%  
29 9% 97%  
30 16% 88%  
31 17% 72%  
32 22% 55% Median
33 17% 33%  
34 11% 16%  
35 3% 5%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations