Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 12 December 2017–18 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 21.9% 20.8–23.0% 20.5–23.3% 20.3–23.6% 19.8–24.1%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.6% 14.7–16.6% 14.4–16.9% 14.2–17.1% 13.8–17.6%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 15.5% 14.6–16.5% 14.3–16.7% 14.1–17.0% 13.7–17.5%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.8% 8.1–9.6% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.1% 7.4–8.9% 7.2–9.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.4% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.1% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.8–4.1% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 48 46–51 44–51 42–51 41–53
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 40 39–45 38–46 38–47 37–48
Suomen Keskusta 49 36 34–37 34–38 33–39 32–42
Vihreä liitto 15 31 28–32 27–32 26–32 25–34
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 15–18 14–18 13–19 12–20
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 13–16 12–18 12–18 11–19
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 4 2–6 2–6 2–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 1.3% 97%  
44 2% 96%  
45 3% 94%  
46 5% 91%  
47 21% 86%  
48 20% 65% Median
49 23% 45%  
50 9% 22%  
51 11% 13%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.9%  
38 4% 98.9%  
39 29% 94%  
40 16% 65% Median
41 13% 49%  
42 10% 36%  
43 7% 26%  
44 5% 19%  
45 6% 14%  
46 4% 8%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.2% 1.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.5% 99.7%  
33 2% 98%  
34 14% 97%  
35 32% 83%  
36 33% 51% Median
37 11% 18%  
38 4% 7%  
39 1.2% 3%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.1%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.6% 100%  
26 4% 99.4%  
27 1.2% 96%  
28 7% 95%  
29 9% 87%  
30 13% 78%  
31 53% 66% Median
32 11% 13%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.8%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100% Last Result
13 3% 99.4%  
14 5% 97%  
15 5% 92%  
16 14% 88%  
17 64% 74% Median
18 7% 10%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 5% 98%  
13 6% 93%  
14 56% 87% Median
15 15% 31%  
16 7% 17%  
17 4% 10%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 27% 97%  
8 26% 71% Median
9 31% 44% Last Result
10 12% 14%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 1.0% 98.9%  
2 14% 98%  
3 13% 84%  
4 22% 71% Median
5 12% 49% Last Result
6 37% 37%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 149 100% 146–151 146–152 145–153 143–154
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 132 100% 130–135 129–136 129–136 127–138
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 101 77% 99–105 99–106 98–107 96–109
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 99 17% 95–101 94–102 93–103 91–105
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 84 0% 80–86 79–87 78–88 77–90

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.3% 99.9%  
143 0.8% 99.6%  
144 0.5% 98.8%  
145 2% 98%  
146 6% 96%  
147 7% 90%  
148 13% 83% Median
149 38% 70%  
150 14% 32%  
151 11% 18%  
152 3% 6%  
153 3% 3%  
154 0.7% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.4% 99.9%  
127 1.1% 99.5%  
128 0.7% 98%  
129 4% 98%  
130 7% 94%  
131 14% 87% Median
132 34% 73%  
133 15% 38%  
134 12% 23%  
135 6% 11%  
136 4% 6%  
137 2% 2%  
138 0.3% 0.6%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.3% 99.9%  
96 0.7% 99.5%  
97 0.9% 98.8%  
98 2% 98%  
99 10% 96%  
100 10% 86% Median
101 27% 77% Majority
102 14% 50%  
103 11% 35%  
104 9% 24%  
105 7% 15%  
106 4% 7%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.8% 1.4%  
109 0.2% 0.6%  
110 0.3% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.7% 99.8%  
92 1.5% 99.1%  
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 96%  
95 5% 91%  
96 9% 86%  
97 17% 77%  
98 9% 60% Median
99 23% 52%  
100 12% 29%  
101 11% 17% Majority
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.9% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 1.2% 99.6%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 5% 94%  
81 5% 89%  
82 8% 85%  
83 23% 77%  
84 12% 54% Median
85 21% 42%  
86 13% 21% Last Result
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations