Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 16.5% (General Election of 19 April 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 19.4% 18.1–20.8% 17.6–21.2% 17.3–21.6% 16.6–22.3%
1–9 April 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.3–22.0%
3–7 April 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.6% 18.5–20.8% 18.2–21.1% 17.9–21.4% 17.4–22.0%
25 March–3 April 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.6% 18.2–21.1% 17.8–21.5% 17.4–21.9% 16.8–22.7%
6–26 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.1% 18.7–21.6% 18.2–22.0% 17.9–22.4% 17.3–23.2%
18 February–15 March 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.7%
6 February–5 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 21.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.8–23.0% 19.5–23.3% 18.9–23.9%
18 February–3 March 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 21.3% 19.8–22.9% 19.4–23.3% 19.1–23.7% 18.4–24.5%
14 January–14 February 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 20.8% 19.6–22.1% 19.2–22.5% 18.9–22.8% 18.4–23.4%
14 January–5 February 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.1% 18.9–21.4% 18.6–21.7% 18.3–22.1% 17.8–22.7%
14–28 January 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.7–23.4% 18.0–24.2%
13 December 2018–11 January 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 20.9% 19.8–22.0% 19.5–22.3% 19.3–22.6% 18.8–23.2%
10 December 2018–8 January 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 21.2% 20.2–22.3% 19.9–22.6% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4%
5–18 December 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 20.7% 19.2–22.3% 18.8–22.7% 18.4–23.1% 17.8–23.9%
13 November–12 December 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.4% 20.3–22.5% 20.0–22.9% 19.8–23.1% 19.3–23.7%
12 November–4 December 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 21.5% 20.3–22.8% 20.0–23.1% 19.7–23.5% 19.1–24.1%
14–23 November 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 21.4% 19.9–23.0% 19.5–23.5% 19.1–23.9% 18.4–24.6%
15 October–12 November 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 22.4% 21.3–23.5% 21.0–23.9% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.7%
3 October–6 November 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 22.7% 21.5–23.9% 21.2–24.3% 20.9–24.6% 20.3–25.2%
12–30 October 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 22.0% 20.5–23.7% 20.1–24.2% 19.7–24.6% 19.0–25.4%
17 September–11 October 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 22.0% 20.9–23.1% 20.6–23.4% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.3%
10 September–2 October 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 22.6% 21.2–24.1% 20.8–24.5% 20.5–24.9% 19.8–25.6%
14–27 September 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 22.2% 20.7–24.0% 20.2–24.4% 19.8–24.9% 19.1–25.7%
20 August–14 September 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.4% 20.1–22.7% 19.7–23.1% 19.4–23.5% 18.8–24.1%
13 August–4 September 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.3% 19.0–21.7% 18.6–22.1% 18.3–22.4% 17.7–23.1%
13–25 August 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 21.9% 20.4–23.5% 19.9–23.9% 19.6–24.3% 18.9–25.1%
16 July–16 August 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.6% 20.3–23.0% 20.0–23.4% 19.6–23.8% 19.0–24.4%
9 July–7 August 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 21.2% 20.2–22.3% 19.9–22.6% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4%
11 June–12 July 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 22.1% 21.1–23.2% 20.8–23.5% 20.5–23.8% 20.0–24.3%
6 June–3 July 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.3% 19.3–21.4% 19.0–21.7% 18.7–21.9% 18.3–22.5%
6–26 June 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 20.2% 18.7–21.8% 18.3–22.2% 17.9–22.6% 17.3–23.4%
14 May–10 June 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.6% 20.5–22.7% 20.3–23.0% 20.0–23.3% 19.5–23.8%
2 May–5 June 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.0% 19.1–20.9% 18.9–21.2% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.8%
18–31 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 21.2% 19.7–22.8% 19.3–23.2% 18.9–23.6% 18.2–24.4%
16 April–11 May 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.2% 20.1–22.3% 19.8–22.6% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4%
19 April–2 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 21.8% 20.3–23.4% 19.8–23.9% 19.5–24.3% 18.8–25.1%
3–26 April 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.0% 18.8–21.4% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.1% 17.6–22.7%
19 March–12 April 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.4% 20.4–22.5% 20.1–22.8% 19.8–23.1% 19.3–23.6%
1–27 March 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.2% 19.0–21.6% 18.6–21.9% 18.3–22.3% 17.7–22.9%
16–26 March 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 18.0–24.2%
19 February–15 March 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 20.8% 19.8–21.9% 19.5–22.2% 19.2–22.5% 18.7–23.0%
7–28 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.7%
14–26 February 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.6% 18.2–21.2% 17.8–21.6% 17.4–22.0% 16.7–22.8%
22 January–15 February 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.3% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%
28 December 2017–6 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 18.7% 17.8–19.7% 17.5–20.0% 17.3–20.2% 16.8–20.7%
19–29 January 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.2% 17.8–20.7% 17.4–21.2% 17.1–21.5% 16.4–22.3%
12 December 2017–18 January 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0.4% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 4% 99.6% Last Result
17.5–18.5% 16% 96%  
18.5–19.5% 34% 80% Median
19.5–20.5% 31% 46%  
20.5–21.5% 12% 15%  
21.5–22.5% 2% 3%  
22.5–23.5% 0.3% 0.3%  
23.5–24.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 34 seats (General Election of 19 April 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 43 40–47 39–47 38–48 35–50
1–9 April 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 43 39–46 38–47 36–48 35–49
3–7 April 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 43 41–46 41–47 39–47 38–48
25 March–3 April 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 44 41–47 40–47 39–49 36–51
6–26 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 45 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–52
18 February–15 March 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 46 44–50 43–51 43–52 42–53
6 February–5 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 47 45–50 44–52 43–52 41–53
18 February–3 March 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 48 45–52 44–52 43–54 42–56
14 January–14 February 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 46 44–48 43–50 43–52 41–53
14 January–5 February 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 45 43–48 41–49 40–49 39–51
14–28 January 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 47 43–50 43–52 42–53 40–55
13 December 2018–11 January 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 44–49 43–49 43–50 42–51
10 December 2018–8 January 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 47 45–50 44–50 44–51 42–52
5–18 December 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 46 43–50 43–50 41–52 39–54
13 November–12 December 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–54
12 November–4 December 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 47 45–51 45–52 45–53 42–54
14–23 November 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 48 45–52 43–53 43–55 40–56
15 October–12 November 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 48 47–53 47–54 46–55 44–57
3 October–6 November 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 50 47–53 47–53 46–56 45–58
12–30 October 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 49 46–54 45–56 44–58 42–59
17 September–11 October 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 48 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–56
10 September–2 October 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 50 46–54 46–55 45–56 44–58
14–27 September 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 50 46–55 45–56 45–58 43–60
20 August–14 September 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 45–52 44–52 43–52 42–56
13 August–4 September 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 45 42–48 41–49 40–50 39–51
13–25 August 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 48 46–53 44–54 43–56 41–59
16 July–16 August 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 45–52 44–53 43–54 42–56
9 July–7 August 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 46 45–49 44–50 43–52 42–52
11 June–12 July 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 48 47–51 47–52 46–54 45–56
6 June–3 July 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 46 44–47 42–47 41–48 40–50
6–26 June 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 45 41–48 40–49 39–51 37–54
14 May–10 June 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 48 46–51 45–52 44–52 43–54
2 May–5 June 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 45 44–47 42–47 41–48 40–49
18–31 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 47 44–51 43–53 42–54 40–57
16 April–11 May 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 45–49 43–50 43–51 42–52
19 April–2 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 48 46–53 45–54 44–56 42–58
3–26 April 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 45 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
19 March–12 April 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 45–50 45–51 43–52 42–53
1–27 March 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 45 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–51
16–26 March 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 47 44–50 43–52 42–52 40–56
19 February–15 March 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 44–48 43–49 42–50 40–51
7–28 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 47 44–50 43–51 41–52 40–53
14–26 February 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 44 41–47 40–47 39–48 37–50
22 January–15 February 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 42 39–45 38–46 38–46 36–48
28 December 2017–6 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 41 38–44 38–45 38–46 36–47
19–29 January 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 43 38–47 38–48 37–49 36–50
12 December 2017–18 January 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 40 39–45 38–46 38–47 37–48

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.5% 99.4%  
37 0.8% 98.9%  
38 0.9% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 5% 94%  
41 9% 89%  
42 14% 80%  
43 21% 66% Median
44 10% 44%  
45 18% 34%  
46 6% 17%  
47 7% 11%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.5% 1.3%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%