Kansallinen Kokoomus

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 18.2% (General Election of 19 April 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 16.9% 15.2–18.3% 14.8–18.7% 14.4–19.1% 13.8–19.7%
1–9 April 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 15.9% 14.6–17.3% 14.3–17.7% 14.0–18.0% 13.4–18.7%
3–7 April 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 17.5% 16.4–18.6% 16.1–19.0% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
25 March–3 April 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.2% 14.3–19.9%
6–26 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 15.8% 14.5–17.2% 14.2–17.6% 13.9–18.0% 13.3–18.7%
18 February–15 March 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 18.1% 16.9–19.4% 16.6–19.7% 16.3–20.0% 15.8–20.7%
6 February–5 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 16.2% 15.1–17.4% 14.8–17.7% 14.6–18.0% 14.1–18.6%
18 February–3 March 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 18.1% 16.7–19.6% 16.3–20.0% 16.0–20.4% 15.4–21.1%
14 January–14 February 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 18.6% 17.4–19.9% 17.1–20.2% 16.8–20.5% 16.3–21.2%
14 January–5 February 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 17.3% 16.2–18.5% 15.9–18.9% 15.7–19.2% 15.1–19.8%
14–28 January 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.7% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.8% 17.5–22.1% 16.9–22.9%
13 December 2018–11 January 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.5% 18.5–20.6% 18.2–20.9% 17.9–21.2% 17.4–21.7%
10 December 2018–8 January 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 19.6% 18.6–20.7% 18.3–21.0% 18.1–21.2% 17.6–21.7%
5–18 December 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.6% 18.1–21.1% 17.7–21.6% 17.4–22.0% 16.7–22.7%
13 November–12 December 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.4% 18.4–20.5% 18.1–20.8% 17.8–21.1% 17.3–21.6%
12 November–4 December 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 19.1% 18.0–20.3% 17.6–20.7% 17.4–21.0% 16.8–21.6%
14–23 November 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.8% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.8% 17.6–22.1% 16.9–22.9%
15 October–12 November 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.7% 18.7–20.8% 18.4–21.1% 18.1–21.4% 17.6–21.9%
3 October–6 November 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.2% 19.1–21.4% 18.8–21.7% 18.5–22.0% 18.0–22.6%
12–30 October 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.9% 18.4–21.5% 18.0–21.9% 17.6–22.3% 16.9–23.1%
17 September–11 October 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.6% 18.6–20.7% 18.3–21.0% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8%
10 September–2 October 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 18.9% 17.6–20.3% 17.2–20.7% 16.9–21.0% 16.3–21.7%
14–27 September 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.9% 18.4–21.5% 17.9–22.0% 17.6–22.4% 16.9–23.2%
20 August–14 September 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.7% 18.4–21.0% 18.1–21.4% 17.8–21.7% 17.2–22.4%
13 August–4 September 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 19.0% 17.7–20.3% 17.3–20.7% 17.0–21.1% 16.4–21.7%
13–25 August 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.8% 18.4–21.4% 17.9–21.8% 17.6–22.2% 16.9–23.0%
16 July–16 August 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 20.1% 18.9–21.5% 18.5–21.9% 18.2–22.2% 17.6–22.9%
9 July–7 August 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 19.8% 18.8–20.9% 18.5–21.2% 18.2–21.4% 17.8–21.9%
11 June–12 July 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 20.2% 19.2–21.2% 18.9–21.6% 18.7–21.8% 18.2–22.3%
6 June–3 July 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 19.7% 18.7–20.8% 18.4–21.1% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9%
6–26 June 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.7% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.8% 17.5–22.1% 16.9–22.9%
14 May–10 June 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 19.7% 18.7–20.8% 18.4–21.1% 18.2–21.3% 17.7–21.9%
2 May–5 June 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 19.3% 18.4–20.2% 18.2–20.5% 18.0–20.7% 17.6–21.1%
18–31 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.5% 18.1–21.1% 17.7–21.5% 17.3–21.9% 16.7–22.7%
16 April–11 May 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 20.5% 19.5–21.6% 19.2–21.9% 18.9–22.1% 18.4–22.7%
19 April–2 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.5% 18.1–21.1% 17.6–21.5% 17.3–21.9% 16.6–22.7%
3–26 April 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.2% 19.0–21.6% 18.6–21.9% 18.3–22.3% 17.7–22.9%
19 March–12 April 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 20.6% 19.6–21.7% 19.3–22.0% 19.0–22.3% 18.5–22.8%
1–27 March 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 21.5% 20.2–22.9% 19.9–23.3% 19.6–23.6% 19.0–24.3%
16–26 March 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 19.9% 18.4–21.4% 18.0–21.9% 17.6–22.3% 17.0–23.0%
19 February–15 March 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.1% 20.0–22.2% 19.8–22.5% 19.5–22.8% 19.0–23.3%
7–28 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.1% 18.8–21.4% 18.5–21.7% 18.2–22.1% 17.6–22.7%
14–26 February 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 20.5% 19.0–22.1% 18.6–22.5% 18.2–22.9% 17.6–23.7%
22 January–15 February 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.7% 20.7–22.8% 20.3–23.1% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–24.0%
28 December 2017–6 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 20.8% 19.8–21.8% 19.6–22.1% 19.3–22.4% 18.9–22.9%
19–29 January 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 20.9% 19.4–22.4% 19.0–22.9% 18.7–23.3% 18.0–24.0%
12 December 2017–18 January 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 21.9% 20.8–23.0% 20.5–23.3% 20.3–23.6% 19.8–24.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Kansallinen Kokoomus.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0.3% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 3% 99.7%  
14.5–15.5% 12% 97%  
15.5–16.5% 24% 85%  
16.5–17.5% 32% 61% Median
17.5–18.5% 22% 29% Last Result
18.5–19.5% 6% 7%  
19.5–20.5% 0.7% 0.8%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 0%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 37 seats (General Election of 19 April 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 36 31–38 29–39 28–40 27–42
1–9 April 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 32 29–37 27–38 27–38 26–38
3–7 April 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 37 34–38 33–39 33–40 31–41
25 March–3 April 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 37 32–39 31–40 31–41 29–42
6–26 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 33 29–37 28–37 27–38 26–39
18 February–15 March 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 38 36–41 35–42 34–42 32–45
6 February–5 March 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 33 31–37 30–38 30–38 28–39
18 February–3 March 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 38 35–42 35–44 34–45 32–47
14 January–14 February 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 38 37–42 37–44 36–45 34–47
14 January–5 February 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 37 34–39 32–39 31–40 31–42
14–28 January 2019 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 42 38–48 38–49 37–49 36–50
13 December 2018–11 January 2019 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 41 38–45 38–46 37–47 37–49
10 December 2018–8 January 2019 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 42 39–46 39–46 38–46 37–47
5–18 December 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 42 39–47 38–49 37–49 35–50
13 November–12 December 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 41 39–46 38–46 37–47 37–48
12 November–4 December 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 39 38–43 37–45 37–46 36–48
14–23 November 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 42 38–48 37–49 37–49 36–50
15 October–12 November 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 42 39–47 38–47 38–48 37–49
3 October–6 November 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 44 39–47 39–49 38–49 38–49
12–30 October 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 43 38–48 37–49 37–50 36–50
17 September–11 October 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 42 39–47 38–47 38–48 37–49
10 September–2 October 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 39 37–42 37–43 36–44 32–47
14–27 September 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 43 38–49 38–49 37–50 36–51
20 August–14 September 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 42 38–47 37–48 37–48 37–49
13 August–4 September 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 40 38–42 37–45 37–46 35–49
13–25 August 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 42 38–48 38–49 37–49 36–50
16 July–16 August 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 43 39–48 38–49 37–49 37–50
9 July–7 August 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 41 39–46 38–47 38–48 38–49
11 June–12 July 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 44 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–49
6 June–3 July 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 40 39–45 38–46 38–47 37–48
6–26 June 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 42 38–48 37–49 37–49 36–50
14 May–10 June 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 41 38–46 38–47 38–48 37–49
2 May–5 June 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 40 39–43 38–44 38–45 37–47
18–31 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 41 38–47 37–49 37–49 36–50
16 April–11 May 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 45 41–48 40–49 39–49 38–49
19 April–2 May 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 41 38–47 37–48 37–49 36–50
3–26 April 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 43 40–48 39–48 38–49 37–51
19 March–12 April 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 45 41–48 40–49 40–49 38–50
1–27 March 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 47 42–50 41–50 40–51 39–53
16–26 March 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 42 38–49 38–49 37–49 37–50
19 February–15 March 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 47 42–49 42–50 41–50 40–51
7–28 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 42 40–47 39–49 38–49 37–50
14–26 February 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 45 40–49 39–49 38–50 37–51
22 January–15 February 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 48 44–50 43–51 42–51 40–52
28 December 2017–6 February 2018 Taloustutkimus
Yle		 46 41–48 40–49 40–50 39–50
19–29 January 2018 Tietoykkönen
Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi		 47 40–50 39–50 39–51 37–52
12 December 2017–18 January 2018 Kantar TNS
Helsingin Sanomat		 48 46–51 44–51 42–51 41–53

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Kansallinen Kokoomus.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 1.3% 98%  
29 2% 97%  
30 1.5% 94%  
31 6% 93%  
32 11% 87%  
33 7% 76%  
34 5% 69%  
35 9% 63%  
36 9% 54% Median
37 17% 46% Last Result
38 22% 28%  
39 2% 6%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.8% 2%  
42 0.7% 0.9%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%