Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 19–29 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.9% 19.4–22.4% 19.0–22.9% 18.7–23.3% 18.0–24.0%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 19.2% 17.8–20.7% 17.4–21.2% 17.1–21.5% 16.4–22.3%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.4% 14.1–16.8% 13.8–17.2% 13.5–17.6% 12.9–18.2%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.5% 13.3–15.9% 12.9–16.2% 12.6–16.6% 12.0–17.3%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1% 7.1–10.3% 6.7–10.9%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.2% 7.3–9.3% 7.0–9.6% 6.8–9.9% 6.4–10.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.8% 3.6–6.0% 3.3–6.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.7–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 47 40–50 39–50 39–51 37–52
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 43 38–47 38–48 37–49 36–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 33–40 33–41 31–42 30–43
Vihreä liitto 15 29 25–31 24–32 24–33 22–34
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 13–19 13–20 12–21 12–22
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–19 12–19 11–20 10–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 9 7–11 7–11 7–11 6–13
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 4–6 3–6 2–6 0–8
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–3

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
38 1.1% 99.5%  
39 5% 98%  
40 10% 93%  
41 5% 83%  
42 4% 78%  
43 5% 74%  
44 5% 69%  
45 8% 64%  
46 4% 55%  
47 9% 52% Median
48 14% 43%  
49 17% 28%  
50 7% 11%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 100%  
36 1.4% 99.8%  
37 2% 98%  
38 8% 96%  
39 6% 88%  
40 10% 82%  
41 9% 72%  
42 8% 63%  
43 14% 55% Median
44 11% 42%  
45 6% 30%  
46 9% 24%  
47 10% 16%  
48 2% 6%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.3% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 2% 97%  
33 8% 95%  
34 22% 88%  
35 22% 66% Median
36 12% 44%  
37 12% 32%  
38 5% 21%  
39 3% 15%  
40 5% 12%  
41 2% 7%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.3%  
24 5% 98%  
25 6% 93%  
26 6% 87%  
27 8% 81%  
28 22% 73%  
29 16% 51% Median
30 13% 35%  
31 14% 22%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.6%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.7% Last Result
13 10% 97%  
14 7% 86%  
15 14% 79%  
16 15% 65% Median
17 31% 50%  
18 9% 19%  
19 4% 10%  
20 3% 6%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.2% 100%  
11 2% 98.8%  
12 12% 97%  
13 9% 84%  
14 37% 75% Median
15 9% 38%  
16 7% 30%  
17 9% 23%  
18 4% 14%  
19 7% 10%  
20 0.9% 3%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8%  
7 13% 98%  
8 24% 85%  
9 20% 61% Last Result, Median
10 21% 41%  
11 19% 21%  
12 0.7% 2%  
13 0.7% 1.1%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0.4% 99.2%  
2 4% 98.8%  
3 3% 95%  
4 5% 92%  
5 10% 87% Last Result
6 76% 78% Median
7 0.7% 1.3%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 70% 75% Median
2 3% 4%  
3 0.4% 0.7%  
4 0.2% 0.4%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 148 100% 144–151 142–152 141–153 139–155
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 131 100% 127–136 126–137 125–137 122–139
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 103 74% 98–108 97–109 96–109 94–111
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 97 14% 90–101 88–103 87–104 87–106
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 82 0% 76–87 75–88 74–89 72–92

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.4% 99.8%  
140 0.8% 99.3%  
141 2% 98.6%  
142 2% 97%  
143 4% 94%  
144 6% 91%  
145 6% 84%  
146 16% 79%  
147 9% 63%  
148 8% 54%  
149 16% 46%  
150 16% 30% Median
151 7% 14%  
152 4% 7%  
153 2% 4%  
154 1.0% 2%  
155 0.3% 0.6%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.3% 100%  
122 0.3% 99.7%  
123 0.4% 99.4%  
124 0.7% 99.0%  
125 3% 98%  
126 4% 96%  
127 4% 91%  
128 4% 87%  
129 12% 83%  
130 8% 72%  
131 14% 64%  
132 9% 50%  
133 12% 41%  
134 13% 29% Median
135 5% 16%  
136 5% 11%  
137 5% 6%  
138 0.8% 1.4%  
139 0.4% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.5% 99.6%  
95 0.9% 99.1%  
96 1.4% 98%  
97 3% 97%  
98 6% 94%  
99 7% 88%  
100 7% 80%  
101 9% 74% Majority
102 9% 65%  
103 13% 56%  
104 7% 43%  
105 11% 35% Median
106 7% 25%  
107 4% 18%  
108 8% 14%  
109 4% 5%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.7%  
112 0.3% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 3% 99.6%  
88 3% 97%  
89 0.8% 94%  
90 3% 93%  
91 3% 90%  
92 6% 87%  
93 5% 81%  
94 10% 76%  
95 9% 67%  
96 7% 57% Median
97 9% 50%  
98 12% 41%  
99 9% 29%  
100 6% 21%  
101 6% 14% Majority
102 3% 8%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.4%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 3% 99.1%  
75 4% 96%  
76 3% 92%  
77 3% 89%  
78 4% 86%  
79 6% 82%  
80 5% 75%  
81 10% 70%  
82 11% 61%  
83 7% 49% Median
84 12% 42%  
85 12% 30%  
86 6% 19% Last Result
87 5% 12%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.4%  
92 0.5% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations