Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 28 December 2017–6 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.8% 19.8–21.8% 19.6–22.1% 19.3–22.4% 18.9–22.9%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 18.7% 17.8–19.7% 17.5–20.0% 17.3–20.2% 16.8–20.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.4% 16.5–18.4% 16.2–18.6% 16.0–18.9% 15.6–19.3%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.0% 13.2–14.9% 13.0–15.2% 12.8–15.4% 12.4–15.8%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.6% 8.9–10.4% 8.7–10.6% 8.6–10.8% 8.2–11.1%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.1% 7.5–8.8% 7.3–9.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.9–9.6%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.6% 4.1–5.2% 4.0–5.3% 3.9–5.4% 3.6–5.7%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.2%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 46 41–48 40–49 40–50 39–50
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 41 38–44 38–45 38–46 36–47
Suomen Keskusta 49 40 35–43 35–44 35–45 35–46
Vihreä liitto 15 27 25–29 24–31 23–31 23–32
Perussuomalaiset 38 19 16–22 15–22 14–22 14–23
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 12–16 12–16 12–17 12–18
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 7–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 4 1–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 9% 99.3%  
41 8% 91%  
42 3% 83%  
43 3% 79%  
44 13% 76%  
45 5% 64%  
46 9% 59% Median
47 20% 49%  
48 23% 29%  
49 4% 7%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 15% 98%  
39 15% 82%  
40 9% 67%  
41 11% 58% Median
42 10% 47%  
43 25% 37%  
44 5% 13%  
45 4% 7%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.8% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 12% 99.8%  
36 8% 88%  
37 11% 79%  
38 6% 68%  
39 10% 62%  
40 8% 52% Median
41 9% 44%  
42 18% 35%  
43 9% 17%  
44 4% 8%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.3% 0.7%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 3% 99.8%  
24 4% 97%  
25 14% 93%  
26 9% 79%  
27 21% 71% Median
28 34% 49%  
29 5% 15%  
30 4% 10%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.4% 1.4%  
33 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 5% 97%  
16 21% 91%  
17 10% 70%  
18 9% 61%  
19 10% 51% Median
20 9% 41%  
21 16% 32%  
22 15% 16%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 27% 99.9% Last Result
13 7% 73%  
14 6% 66%  
15 5% 61%  
16 52% 56% Median
17 3% 4%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 21% 99.8%  
8 26% 79%  
9 14% 53% Last Result, Median
10 34% 40%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 8% 91%  
2 10% 84%  
3 19% 74%  
4 8% 55% Median
5 26% 47% Last Result
6 21% 21%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 141 100% 137–144 136–145 135–146 133–147
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 126 100% 123–130 121–132 120–132 118–133
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 104 82% 99–108 99–109 98–110 96–112
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 99 27% 95–104 94–105 93–105 91–107
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 97 21% 93–102 92–104 90–105 88–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 92 0.1% 87–95 86–97 85–98 84–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 85 0% 80–90 79–91 79–91 76–92
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 83 0% 78–87 77–87 77–89 76–90

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0.6% 100%  
134 0.8% 99.4%  
135 2% 98.6%  
136 5% 96%  
137 4% 91%  
138 9% 87%  
139 9% 79%  
140 10% 70%  
141 21% 60%  
142 12% 39%  
143 10% 28% Median
144 8% 18%  
145 5% 10%  
146 4% 5%  
147 0.5% 0.9%  
148 0.3% 0.4%  
149 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.5% 100%  
119 1.3% 99.4%  
120 3% 98%  
121 2% 96%  
122 3% 94%  
123 6% 90%  
124 8% 85%  
125 20% 77%  
126 15% 57%  
127 13% 42% Median
128 6% 29%  
129 6% 23%  
130 9% 17%  
131 3% 9%  
132 5% 6%  
133 0.8% 0.9%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.6% 99.8%  
97 2% 99.2%  
98 2% 98%  
99 7% 96%  
100 7% 89%  
101 11% 82% Majority
102 14% 71%  
103 6% 57%  
104 12% 51%  
105 14% 40% Median
106 7% 26%  
107 5% 18%  
108 4% 14%  
109 6% 10%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.7% 1.3%  
112 0.6% 0.6%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 1.3% 99.6%  
92 0.4% 98%  
93 1.3% 98%  
94 4% 97%  
95 5% 92%  
96 6% 87%  
97 10% 81%  
98 17% 71%  
99 14% 54%  
100 13% 40% Median
101 5% 27% Majority
102 7% 22%  
103 5% 15%  
104 3% 11%  
105 6% 8%  
106 0.7% 1.3%  
107 0.4% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.9% 99.7%  
89 0.9% 98.8%  
90 0.9% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 3% 95%  
93 7% 93%  
94 5% 86%  
95 11% 81%  
96 14% 70%  
97 8% 56%  
98 8% 48%  
99 11% 40% Median
100 8% 29% Last Result
101 6% 21% Majority
102 6% 15%  
103 3% 8%  
104 1.1% 5%  
105 3% 4%  
106 0.9% 1.2%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.8% 99.9%  
85 3% 99.1%  
86 4% 96%  
87 3% 92%  
88 7% 89%  
89 6% 83%  
90 4% 77%  
91 16% 73%  
92 16% 57%  
93 9% 40% Median
94 17% 32%  
95 4% 14%  
96 5% 10%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 0.8% 1.3%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.1% Majority
102 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.4%  
78 1.4% 98.9%  
79 3% 98%  
80 4% 94%  
81 8% 90%  
82 7% 82%  
83 12% 74%  
84 10% 63%  
85 7% 52%  
86 13% 45% Last Result, Median
87 6% 33%  
88 7% 27%  
89 6% 20%  
90 8% 13%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 1.3% 99.8%  
77 4% 98%  
78 5% 95%  
79 5% 90%  
80 6% 85%  
81 9% 80%  
82 13% 71%  
83 13% 58%  
84 15% 45% Median
85 10% 30%  
86 6% 20%  
87 9% 14%  
88 2% 5%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 1.2%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations