Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 22 January–15 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 21.7% 20.7–22.8% 20.3–23.1% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–24.0%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.3% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 16.3% 15.4–17.3% 15.1–17.6% 14.9–17.8% 14.4–18.3%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.4% 13.5–15.4% 13.3–15.7% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.4%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.1% 8.4–9.9% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.8–4.1% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 48 44–50 43–51 42–51 40–52
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 42 39–45 38–46 38–46 36–48
Suomen Keskusta 49 36 34–40 34–41 34–42 33–44
Vihreä liitto 15 28 26–31 25–31 25–31 24–32
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–19 15–19 14–20 13–21
Perussuomalaiset 38 15 14–19 14–20 13–20 12–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 2–6 2–6 1–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 1.0% 100%  
41 1.0% 99.0%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 95%  
44 4% 93%  
45 2% 89%  
46 5% 86%  
47 14% 81%  
48 25% 66% Median
49 23% 41%  
50 8% 18%  
51 8% 10%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.9% 100%  
37 1.3% 99.1%  
38 8% 98%  
39 9% 90%  
40 15% 81%  
41 11% 66%  
42 11% 56% Median
43 26% 44%  
44 6% 18%  
45 5% 13%  
46 5% 7%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 1.0% 1.0%  
49 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.0% 99.9%  
34 10% 98.9%  
35 24% 89%  
36 27% 66% Median
37 19% 39%  
38 4% 20%  
39 4% 16%  
40 4% 12%  
41 3% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.7% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 7% 98%  
26 18% 90%  
27 11% 72%  
28 23% 61% Median
29 7% 38%  
30 10% 31%  
31 19% 21%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100% Last Result
13 0.8% 99.7%  
14 3% 98.8%  
15 3% 96%  
16 24% 93%  
17 46% 69% Median
18 12% 23%  
19 6% 11%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 0.7% 99.8%  
13 3% 99.1%  
14 29% 96%  
15 18% 66% Median
16 22% 48%  
17 13% 26%  
18 2% 13%  
19 6% 12%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.0% 1.4%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 39% 96%  
8 37% 57% Median
9 12% 20% Last Result
10 7% 8%  
11 1.2% 1.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 3% 98%  
2 12% 95%  
3 15% 83%  
4 10% 68%  
5 29% 58% Last Result, Median
6 29% 29%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 147 100% 143–149 143–150 141–151 140–152
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 130 100% 127–132 126–133 125–134 122–135
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 102 66% 98–105 97–106 96–107 94–108
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 100 39% 96–104 95–105 94–106 93–107
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 96 8% 93–100 92–102 91–103 88–104
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 94 2% 92–98 90–99 89–100 88–103
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 87 0% 84–91 82–92 81–92 80–96
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 84 0% 81–88 80–90 79–91 76–91

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.2% 99.8%  
140 0.6% 99.6%  
141 2% 99.0%  
142 2% 97%  
143 5% 95%  
144 9% 90%  
145 6% 81%  
146 14% 74%  
147 14% 60%  
148 24% 46% Median
149 14% 22%  
150 6% 8%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.5% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.3% 99.9%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.3% 99.4%  
124 1.3% 99.2%  
125 2% 98%  
126 5% 96%  
127 6% 91%  
128 11% 85%  
129 19% 74%  
130 10% 55%  
131 22% 45% Median
132 15% 23%  
133 4% 8%  
134 4% 5%  
135 0.4% 0.8%  
136 0.3% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 0.9% 99.2%  
96 2% 98%  
97 3% 96%  
98 10% 93%  
99 9% 83%  
100 9% 74%  
101 11% 66% Majority
102 16% 55%  
103 6% 38% Median
104 13% 32%  
105 10% 19%  
106 6% 9%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.8% 1.1%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 0.8% 99.7%  
94 3% 98.9%  
95 4% 96%  
96 3% 92%  
97 5% 89%  
98 11% 84%  
99 13% 73% Median
100 22% 61%  
101 9% 39% Majority
102 13% 29%  
103 6% 17%  
104 4% 10%  
105 4% 7%  
106 1.2% 3%  
107 1.4% 2%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.4% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 0.3% 99.5%  
89 0.6% 99.3%  
90 0.7% 98.7%  
91 0.9% 98%  
92 3% 97%  
93 11% 94%  
94 13% 83%  
95 7% 70%  
96 15% 63%  
97 8% 48% Median
98 16% 40%  
99 7% 24%  
100 9% 16% Last Result
101 2% 8% Majority
102 2% 5%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.0% 1.5%  
105 0.4% 0.4%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.9% 99.7%  
89 2% 98.8%  
90 3% 97%  
91 2% 94%  
92 13% 92%  
93 7% 78%  
94 22% 71%  
95 17% 49% Median
96 10% 32%  
97 5% 22%  
98 8% 17%  
99 6% 9%  
100 1.5% 3%  
101 0.7% 2% Majority
102 0.3% 1.1%  
103 0.4% 0.8%  
104 0.4% 0.4%  
105 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.4% 100%  
80 0.5% 99.5%  
81 2% 99.1%  
82 3% 97%  
83 4% 94%  
84 6% 91%  
85 15% 84%  
86 17% 69%  
87 16% 52% Median
88 12% 36%  
89 8% 24%  
90 5% 16%  
91 6% 12%  
92 4% 6%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.3% 1.0%  
95 0.1% 0.7%  
96 0.6% 0.6%  
97 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.6% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.3%  
78 1.1% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 5% 91%  
82 13% 87%  
83 13% 74%  
84 11% 61% Median
85 21% 50%  
86 10% 29% Last Result
87 5% 19%  
88 6% 14%  
89 3% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations