Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 14–26 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.5% 19.0–22.1% 18.6–22.5% 18.2–22.9% 17.6–23.7%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 19.6% 18.2–21.2% 17.8–21.6% 17.4–22.0% 16.7–22.8%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.5% 14.2–16.9% 13.8–17.4% 13.5–17.7% 12.9–18.4%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.6% 12.3–15.0% 12.0–15.3% 11.7–15.7% 11.1–16.4%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.8% 7.8–9.9% 7.5–10.3% 7.3–10.5% 6.8–11.1%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.7% 7.7–9.8% 7.4–10.2% 7.2–10.5% 6.7–11.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.8% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.2% 3.4–6.7%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 45 40–49 39–49 38–50 37–51
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 44 41–47 40–47 39–48 37–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–38 33–40 32–41 30–44
Vihreä liitto 15 26 23–29 22–31 22–31 21–32
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 13–19 13–20 13–20 12–22
Perussuomalaiset 38 17 14–20 13–21 12–22 11–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 9 8–11 7–11 7–13 6–14
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 4–6 3–6 2–6 0–8
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
38 3% 99.3%  
39 3% 97%  
40 7% 93%  
41 5% 87%  
42 7% 82%  
43 9% 74%  
44 6% 65%  
45 17% 59% Median
46 5% 42%  
47 13% 37%  
48 10% 24%  
49 11% 15%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.8% 1.2%  
52 0.1% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.7%  
38 1.3% 99.3%  
39 3% 98%  
40 3% 95%  
41 7% 92%  
42 9% 85%  
43 14% 77%  
44 19% 63% Median
45 16% 44%  
46 13% 27%  
47 10% 14%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.1%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 99.5%  
32 1.1% 98.5%  
33 7% 97%  
34 26% 90%  
35 33% 64% Median
36 12% 31%  
37 7% 19%  
38 4% 12%  
39 2% 8%  
40 2% 6%  
41 3% 5%  
42 0.6% 2%  
43 0.7% 1.3%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.8%  
21 1.2% 99.6%  
22 5% 98%  
23 4% 93%  
24 12% 89%  
25 23% 78%  
26 10% 55% Median
27 10% 45%  
28 18% 35%  
29 6% 16%  
30 5% 10%  
31 4% 5%  
32 1.0% 1.4%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.8% Last Result
13 9% 98%  
14 7% 89%  
15 8% 82%  
16 17% 74%  
17 19% 57% Median
18 23% 38%  
19 7% 15%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.8%  
12 3% 99.4%  
13 4% 96%  
14 27% 92%  
15 5% 65%  
16 7% 61%  
17 8% 54% Median
18 19% 45%  
19 16% 27%  
20 3% 10%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 6% 99.0%  
8 31% 93%  
9 14% 62% Last Result, Median
10 20% 48%  
11 23% 28%  
12 2% 5%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0.6% 99.5%  
2 3% 98.9%  
3 1.4% 96%  
4 7% 95%  
5 6% 88% Last Result
6 80% 81% Median
7 1.1% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 146 100% 143–151 142–151 140–152 138–154
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 130 100% 126–134 125–135 124–135 122–137
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 104 82% 99–108 98–110 97–110 95–112
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 97 15% 92–101 91–102 90–103 87–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 96 11% 92–101 91–102 89–103 87–106
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 95 5% 91–99 90–101 89–101 86–105
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 87 0% 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–96
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 80 0% 76–84 76–85 74–87 72–90

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0.2% 99.9%  
138 0.6% 99.7%  
139 0.4% 99.2%  
140 2% 98.8%  
141 2% 97%  
142 4% 96%  
143 3% 92%  
144 11% 88%  
145 13% 77%  
146 17% 65%  
147 11% 48% Median
148 7% 37%  
149 7% 30%  
150 8% 23%  
151 11% 15%  
152 2% 4%  
153 0.7% 1.3%  
154 0.4% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.4% 99.7%  
123 0.6% 99.2%  
124 2% 98.6%  
125 4% 97%  
126 6% 93%  
127 5% 87%  
128 14% 81%  
129 13% 67%  
130 7% 54% Median
131 18% 47%  
132 4% 28%  
133 5% 24%  
134 13% 20%  
135 4% 7%  
136 1.5% 2%  
137 0.4% 0.8%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.2% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.6% 99.7%  
96 1.0% 99.2%  
97 2% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 6% 94%  
100 5% 88%  
101 13% 82% Majority
102 4% 69%  
103 14% 65%  
104 6% 51% Median
105 8% 45%  
106 13% 37%  
107 11% 24%  
108 3% 13%  
109 3% 10%  
110 5% 7%  
111 1.3% 2%  
112 0.7% 0.9%  
113 0.2% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.7%  
88 0.5% 99.3%  
89 1.1% 98.8%  
90 0.6% 98%  
91 3% 97%  
92 5% 94%  
93 5% 89%  
94 6% 84%  
95 17% 78%  
96 8% 60%  
97 9% 52% Median
98 14% 43%  
99 10% 29%  
100 5% 19%  
101 8% 15% Majority
102 2% 7%  
103 3% 5%  
104 1.0% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.1%  
106 0.3% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.2% 99.5%  
89 2% 99.2%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 95%  
92 5% 93%  
93 6% 87%  
94 9% 81%  
95 15% 72%  
96 8% 57% Median
97 14% 48%  
98 9% 35%  
99 9% 25%  
100 6% 16%  
101 5% 11% Majority
102 3% 6%  
103 1.3% 3%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 0.7% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.5% 99.5%  
88 0.5% 98.9%  
89 2% 98%  
90 5% 96%  
91 4% 91%  
92 4% 88%  
93 14% 83%  
94 17% 69%  
95 9% 52% Median
96 11% 43%  
97 10% 33%  
98 8% 23%  
99 6% 14%  
100 4% 9% Last Result
101 3% 5% Majority
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.3% 1.0%  
105 0.3% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 1.1% 99.4%  
80 3% 98%  
81 2% 96%  
82 4% 93%  
83 3% 89%  
84 10% 87%  
85 4% 76%  
86 12% 73%  
87 20% 60% Median
88 9% 40%  
89 13% 31%  
90 4% 18%  
91 7% 14%  
92 4% 8%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.5% 2%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 2% 99.0%  
75 2% 97%  
76 7% 95%  
77 6% 88%  
78 9% 82%  
79 9% 73%  
80 16% 64% Median
81 4% 49%  
82 21% 45%  
83 10% 23%  
84 5% 14%  
85 4% 8%  
86 2% 5% Last Result
87 1.2% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.3% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations