Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 7–28 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.7%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.1% 18.8–21.4% 18.5–21.7% 18.2–22.1% 17.6–22.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.0% 15.8–18.2% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–18.9% 14.7–19.5%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.5% 13.4–15.7% 13.1–16.0% 12.9–16.3% 12.4–16.9%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.9% 8.0–9.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.6–10.4% 7.2–10.8%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.5% 7.7–9.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.3–10.0% 6.9–10.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 0.9–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 44–50 43–51 41–52 40–53
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 40–47 39–49 38–49 37–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 40 35–44 35–44 34–45 34–47
Vihreä liitto 15 29 25–31 25–32 25–32 23–33
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 16–19 13–20 12–21 12–21
Perussuomalaiset 38 15 14–19 13–21 13–21 12–22
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 1–6 1–6 0–6 0–6
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 4 4–7 4–7 3–7 3–8
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 98.8%  
42 2% 97%  
43 2% 96%  
44 6% 94%  
45 13% 88%  
46 20% 75%  
47 26% 55% Median
48 9% 29%  
49 8% 20%  
50 7% 12%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 0.9% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
38 2% 99.3%  
39 5% 97%  
40 18% 92%  
41 17% 74%  
42 10% 56% Median
43 8% 47%  
44 9% 38%  
45 5% 29%  
46 10% 25%  
47 5% 14%  
48 4% 9%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 3% 99.8%  
35 11% 97%  
36 7% 86%  
37 6% 79%  
38 14% 73%  
39 8% 59%  
40 12% 51% Median
41 7% 39%  
42 10% 32%  
43 9% 22%  
44 9% 12%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.4% 1.4%  
47 0.9% 1.0%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.6%  
24 1.2% 99.2%  
25 9% 98%  
26 12% 89%  
27 7% 77%  
28 15% 69%  
29 9% 54% Median
30 10% 45%  
31 26% 35%  
32 8% 10%  
33 1.2% 1.5%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 3% 100% Last Result
13 4% 97%  
14 1.0% 93%  
15 1.5% 92%  
16 41% 91% Median
17 26% 49%  
18 11% 23%  
19 6% 12%  
20 2% 6%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.8%  
12 2% 99.5%  
13 6% 98%  
14 38% 92%  
15 21% 54% Median
16 6% 33%  
17 5% 27%  
18 11% 22%  
19 4% 11%  
20 2% 8%  
21 3% 5%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 10% 97%  
2 22% 87%  
3 4% 65%  
4 5% 62%  
5 30% 56% Last Result, Median
6 27% 27%  
7 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 5% 99.8%  
4 46% 95% Median
5 14% 49%  
6 26% 36%  
7 9% 10%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0% Last Result

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 112 144 100% 140–148 139–150 138–150 137–151
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 127 100% 124–131 123–133 121–133 120–136
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 85 98 31% 94–102 94–104 93–106 91–107
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 98 23% 94–102 92–103 91–104 89–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 97 15% 92–101 92–102 91–104 89–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 92 0.9% 88–97 87–97 87–99 83–101
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 92 0.4% 86–96 85–97 84–97 83–100
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 83 0% 77–86 76–87 76–89 74–91

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.8%  
137 1.2% 99.6%  
138 1.2% 98%  
139 4% 97%  
140 4% 94%  
141 11% 89%  
142 15% 79%  
143 13% 64% Median
144 11% 50%  
145 8% 40%  
146 11% 32%  
147 9% 21%  
148 4% 12%  
149 3% 8%  
150 3% 5%  
151 1.4% 2%  
152 0.3% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.6% 99.7%  
121 2% 99.1%  
122 2% 97%  
123 4% 95%  
124 10% 92%  
125 12% 81%  
126 10% 69%  
127 14% 59% Median
128 13% 45%  
129 11% 32%  
130 7% 21%  
131 5% 14%  
132 4% 9%  
133 3% 6%  
134 1.2% 2%  
135 0.7% 1.3%  
136 0.3% 0.5%  
137 0.2% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.2% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.6%  
92 0.8% 99.1%  
93 1.4% 98%  
94 11% 97%  
95 6% 86%  
96 14% 81%  
97 8% 67%  
98 9% 59% Median
99 10% 49%  
100 9% 39%  
101 15% 31% Majority
102 6% 16%  
103 3% 10%  
104 3% 7%  
105 1.3% 4%  
106 1.4% 3%  
107 1.0% 1.3%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.5% 99.7%  
90 0.9% 99.2%  
91 2% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 3% 94%  
94 9% 91%  
95 5% 83%  
96 6% 78%  
97 12% 72% Median
98 19% 60%  
99 10% 41%  
100 8% 31%  
101 7% 23% Majority
102 11% 16%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 1.2% 1.5%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 0.7% 99.1%  
91 2% 98%  
92 7% 96%  
93 6% 90%  
94 7% 83%  
95 7% 77%  
96 13% 70% Median
97 13% 57%  
98 7% 44%  
99 13% 37%  
100 10% 25%  
101 6% 15% Majority
102 4% 9%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.3% 1.4%  
106 0.9% 1.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.4%  
85 0.5% 99.1%  
86 0.9% 98.6%  
87 5% 98%  
88 10% 92%  
89 5% 82%  
90 7% 77%  
91 11% 70%  
92 14% 59% Median
93 9% 44%  
94 5% 35%  
95 15% 30%  
96 5% 15%  
97 6% 10%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.0% 3%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.9% Majority
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 1.2% 99.6%  
84 2% 98%  
85 3% 96%  
86 6% 94%  
87 4% 88%  
88 6% 84%  
89 8% 79%  
90 12% 71%  
91 6% 58% Median
92 11% 52%  
93 19% 41%  
94 3% 22%  
95 7% 19%  
96 4% 13%  
97 6% 8%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.3%  
100 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
101 0.1% 0.4% Majority
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.4%  
76 3% 98%  
77 5% 95%  
78 4% 89%  
79 4% 85%  
80 12% 81%  
81 5% 69%  
82 10% 64% Median
83 7% 54%  
84 21% 48%  
85 12% 27%  
86 5% 15% Last Result
87 4% 9%  
88 1.2% 5%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 1.1% 1.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations