Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 19 February–15 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 21.1% 20.0–22.2% 19.8–22.5% 19.5–22.8% 19.0–23.3%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.8% 19.8–21.9% 19.5–22.2% 19.2–22.5% 18.7–23.0%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.9% 15.0–16.9% 14.7–17.2% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.9%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.5% 13.6–15.5% 13.4–15.7% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.6–9.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.6–9.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.1% 3.6–4.7% 3.5–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.9% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.1–1.9% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 47 42–49 42–50 41–50 40–51
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 44–48 43–49 42–50 40–51
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–39 34–39 34–40 33–43
Vihreä liitto 15 28 26–31 25–31 25–31 24–31
Perussuomalaiset 38 15 14–19 13–19 12–20 12–21
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–20
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 3 2–6 1–6 0–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.1% 99.6%  
41 3% 98.5%  
42 10% 95%  
43 5% 85%  
44 9% 81%  
45 8% 72%  
46 5% 63%  
47 26% 58% Median
48 21% 32%  
49 5% 11%  
50 4% 5%  
51 0.8% 1.1%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.5%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 5% 97%  
44 11% 92%  
45 8% 81%  
46 9% 73%  
47 39% 64% Median
48 17% 25%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 1.4%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.4% 99.8%  
34 35% 98%  
35 26% 63% Median
36 8% 37%  
37 7% 29%  
38 12% 22%  
39 6% 10%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.9% 2%  
42 0.6% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.5%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.7% 99.8%  
25 7% 99.2%  
26 9% 92%  
27 13% 83%  
28 27% 70% Median
29 8% 43%  
30 15% 36%  
31 20% 20%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 6% 97%  
14 41% 91%  
15 11% 50% Median
16 12% 39%  
17 5% 27%  
18 8% 22%  
19 10% 14%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.1% 1.3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9% Last Result
13 14% 98%  
14 7% 84%  
15 4% 77%  
16 29% 73% Median
17 39% 44%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.9%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 37% 96%  
8 48% 59% Median
9 6% 11% Last Result
10 4% 5%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 6% 97%  
2 28% 90%  
3 13% 62% Median
4 19% 49%  
5 17% 30% Last Result
6 13% 13%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 148 100% 145–151 144–151 143–151 141–152
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 133 100% 128–135 128–137 127–137 125–137
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 104 85% 99–107 99–108 98–108 96–109
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 97 16% 94–101 93–102 92–103 91–104
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 82 0% 77–85 77–86 76–87 75–89

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.3% 99.9%  
141 0.6% 99.6%  
142 0.4% 99.0%  
143 1.5% 98.6%  
144 4% 97%  
145 17% 93%  
146 11% 77%  
147 13% 65%  
148 7% 52%  
149 10% 45% Median
150 13% 35%  
151 20% 21%  
152 1.1% 1.4%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0.2% 100%  
125 0.5% 99.8%  
126 0.5% 99.2%  
127 2% 98.8%  
128 9% 97%  
129 14% 88%  
130 8% 74%  
131 9% 67%  
132 5% 58%  
133 13% 53% Median
134 25% 40%  
135 8% 15%  
136 2% 7%  
137 5% 5%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.5% 99.8%  
97 0.8% 99.3%  
98 2% 98.5%  
99 8% 97%  
100 4% 89%  
101 13% 85% Majority
102 10% 72%  
103 8% 62%  
104 11% 53%  
105 8% 43% Median
106 21% 35%  
107 7% 14%  
108 6% 8%  
109 2% 2%  
110 0.3% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 1.0% 99.5%  
92 1.4% 98.6%  
93 6% 97%  
94 5% 91%  
95 20% 86%  
96 12% 66%  
97 10% 54% Median
98 11% 44%  
99 11% 33%  
100 6% 22%  
101 10% 16% Majority
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.8% 1.2%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 2% 99.4%  
77 7% 97%  
78 3% 90%  
79 8% 87%  
80 7% 79%  
81 17% 71%  
82 18% 54% Median
83 8% 36%  
84 11% 28%  
85 11% 17%  
86 3% 6% Last Result
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 2%  
89 1.0% 1.3%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations