Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 16–26 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 18.0–24.2%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.9% 18.4–21.4% 18.0–21.9% 17.6–22.3% 17.0–23.0%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 16.1% 14.8–17.6% 14.4–18.0% 14.1–18.4% 13.5–19.1%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.3% 12.1–14.7% 11.8–15.1% 11.5–15.4% 10.9–16.1%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.7% 7.7–9.9% 7.4–10.2% 7.2–10.5% 6.8–11.1%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.2% 7.2–9.3% 7.0–9.6% 6.7–9.9% 6.3–10.5%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.8% 3.1–6.2%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 44–50 43–52 42–52 40–56
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 38–49 38–49 37–49 37–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 37 34–42 34–42 34–43 32–44
Vihreä liitto 15 26 22–30 22–31 22–31 20–32
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 14–19 13–20 12–21 12–22
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–19 12–20 12–21 10–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–11 7–11 6–11 6–13
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 4–6 2–6 2–6 1–7
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 0.8% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 8% 92%  
45 10% 84%  
46 13% 75%  
47 30% 61% Median
48 11% 31%  
49 7% 20%  
50 3% 13%  
51 3% 10%  
52 4% 6%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.4% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.8%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.6% Last Result
38 9% 97%  
39 8% 88%  
40 7% 79%  
41 10% 72%  
42 18% 63% Median
43 8% 45%  
44 6% 37%  
45 7% 32%  
46 4% 24%  
47 6% 20%  
48 5% 15%  
49 9% 10%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 1.3% 99.0%  
34 15% 98%  
35 17% 82%  
36 15% 65%  
37 10% 50% Median
38 7% 41%  
39 6% 34%  
40 7% 27%  
41 10% 21%  
42 7% 11%  
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.6%  
21 1.5% 99.1%  
22 14% 98%  
23 7% 83%  
24 7% 77%  
25 16% 69%  
26 13% 53% Median
27 9% 40%  
28 14% 31%  
29 5% 17%  
30 4% 12%  
31 8% 8%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 4% 99.7% Last Result
13 3% 96%  
14 6% 93%  
15 6% 87%  
16 24% 81%  
17 27% 57% Median
18 15% 31%  
19 7% 15%  
20 3% 8%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.1% 100%  
11 0.9% 98.8%  
12 11% 98%  
13 12% 87%  
14 27% 75% Median
15 17% 48%  
16 10% 31%  
17 6% 21%  
18 4% 15%  
19 5% 11%  
20 3% 6%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 20% 96%  
8 32% 76% Median
9 10% 44% Last Result
10 17% 34%  
11 16% 17%  
12 0.3% 1.1%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0.6% 99.7%  
2 4% 99.0%  
3 2% 95%  
4 6% 92%  
5 9% 86% Last Result
6 76% 78% Median
7 1.2% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 147 100% 142–151 141–152 140–152 138–154
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 130 100% 125–134 125–135 123–135 121–138
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 104 83% 100–109 99–109 97–110 96–112
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 98 24% 93–103 92–105 91–106 89–108
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 94 5% 89–99 88–101 87–102 85–104
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 95 7% 90–100 88–101 87–102 85–105
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 89 0.2% 85–94 84–96 83–97 80–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 80 0% 75–85 74–87 73–88 71–90

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.8%  
138 0.3% 99.6%  
139 1.0% 99.4%  
140 2% 98%  
141 4% 97%  
142 4% 93%  
143 12% 89%  
144 6% 77%  
145 7% 72%  
146 11% 65% Median
147 10% 53%  
148 16% 44%  
149 7% 27%  
150 6% 20%  
151 9% 14%  
152 4% 5%  
153 1.0% 2%  
154 0.3% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.5% 99.8%  
122 0.5% 99.3%  
123 2% 98.8%  
124 1.2% 97%  
125 8% 96%  
126 6% 88%  
127 6% 82%  
128 7% 76%  
129 10% 69% Median
130 15% 59%  
131 15% 45%  
132 10% 30%  
133 5% 19%  
134 7% 14%  
135 5% 7%  
136 1.0% 2%  
137 0.5% 1.4%  
138 0.6% 0.8%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.4% 99.6%  
97 2% 99.2%  
98 1.3% 97%  
99 6% 96%  
100 8% 90%  
101 7% 83% Majority
102 10% 75%  
103 12% 66% Median
104 11% 54%  
105 12% 43%  
106 9% 31%  
107 3% 22%  
108 5% 19%  
109 9% 13%  
110 3% 4%  
111 0.8% 2%  
112 0.6% 0.9%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.7% 99.6%  
90 0.5% 98.9%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96%  
93 5% 94%  
94 7% 89%  
95 9% 82%  
96 10% 73%  
97 8% 63%  
98 6% 55% Median
99 8% 49%  
100 17% 41%  
101 3% 24% Majority
102 8% 21%  
103 3% 13%  
104 2% 10%  
105 4% 8%  
106 2% 4%  
107 0.7% 2%  
108 0.8% 1.0%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.6% 99.7%  
86 1.1% 99.1%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 4% 97%  
89 5% 93%  
90 3% 88%  
91 9% 85%  
92 7% 76%  
93 10% 69% Median
94 10% 59%  
95 9% 49%  
96 6% 40%  
97 14% 34%  
98 7% 20%  
99 4% 13%  
100 3% 9% Last Result
101 2% 5% Majority
102 3% 4%  
103 0.5% 1.1%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.6% 99.9%  
86 0.7% 99.3%  
87 2% 98.6%  
88 3% 97%  
89 2% 93%  
90 3% 91%  
91 3% 88%  
92 4% 85%  
93 19% 82% Median
94 9% 62%  
95 6% 53%  
96 8% 48%  
97 11% 39%  
98 9% 29%  
99 8% 20%  
100 5% 12%  
101 3% 7% Majority
102 2% 4%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.8% 1.4%  
105 0.3% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.2%  
82 0.7% 98.6%  
83 2% 98%  
84 4% 96%  
85 5% 91%  
86 5% 86%  
87 15% 82%  
88 9% 67%  
89 11% 58%  
90 7% 47% Median
91 9% 40%  
92 8% 31%  
93 7% 22%  
94 8% 15%  
95 2% 8%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.1% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2% Majority
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 1.3% 99.3%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 6% 97%  
75 2% 91%  
76 7% 89%  
77 6% 82%  
78 8% 76%  
79 14% 67% Median
80 4% 54%  
81 9% 50%  
82 7% 41%  
83 14% 34%  
84 4% 19%  
85 6% 15%  
86 4% 9% Last Result
87 1.3% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations