Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 1–27 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 21.5% 20.2–22.9% 19.9–23.3% 19.6–23.6% 19.0–24.3%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.2% 19.0–21.6% 18.6–21.9% 18.3–22.3% 17.7–22.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 16.3% 15.2–17.5% 14.8–17.9% 14.6–18.2% 14.0–18.8%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.2% 13.2–15.4% 12.8–15.7% 12.6–16.0% 12.1–16.6%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.2% 8.3–10.2% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.7% 7.5–11.2%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 3.5% 3.0–4.2% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.9%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 47 42–50 41–50 40–51 39–53
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 45 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–51
Suomen Keskusta 49 36 34–40 33–41 33–42 33–44
Vihreä liitto 15 28 25–31 24–31 23–31 22–32
Perussuomalaiset 38 16 14–21 14–22 14–22 13–22
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 15–19 13–19 12–20 12–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 6 5–8 4–8 4–8 4–10
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 1–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 2% 97%  
42 5% 94%  
43 3% 89%  
44 11% 86%  
45 5% 76%  
46 5% 71%  
47 21% 65% Median
48 18% 44%  
49 14% 27%  
50 9% 13%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.6% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 0.6%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 5% 97%  
41 5% 92%  
42 18% 86%  
43 7% 69%  
44 10% 62%  
45 12% 52% Median
46 13% 40%  
47 18% 27%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.7%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 5% 99.5%  
34 11% 95%  
35 26% 83%  
36 13% 57% Median
37 14% 45%  
38 15% 31%  
39 4% 16%  
40 6% 11%  
41 1.4% 5%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.9% 2%  
44 1.1% 1.5%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 0.7% 99.5%  
23 2% 98.8%  
24 4% 97%  
25 14% 93%  
26 15% 78%  
27 9% 64%  
28 21% 55% Median
29 16% 35%  
30 4% 18%  
31 13% 15%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.5%  
14 19% 98%  
15 17% 79%  
16 14% 62% Median
17 7% 47%  
18 6% 41%  
19 6% 35%  
20 12% 29%  
21 11% 17%  
22 5% 5%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 4% 100% Last Result
13 4% 96%  
14 2% 93%  
15 4% 90%  
16 31% 86%  
17 38% 55% Median
18 6% 17%  
19 7% 10%  
20 1.4% 3%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 9% 99.8%  
5 5% 90%  
6 38% 86% Median
7 30% 48%  
8 16% 18%  
9 0.8% 2% Last Result
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 8% 94%  
2 23% 86%  
3 5% 63%  
4 5% 58%  
5 32% 53% Last Result, Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 146 100% 142–149 139–150 138–151 136–151
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 129 100% 125–132 123–134 122–134 120–136
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 101 55% 97–105 96–107 95–107 92–109
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 100 41% 96–105 95–107 94–107 92–109
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 83 0% 79–87 78–89 76–90 75–92

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.6% 99.9%  
137 0.7% 99.3%  
138 3% 98.6%  
139 1.5% 96%  
140 1.2% 95%  
141 2% 93%  
142 7% 91%  
143 7% 84%  
144 13% 77%  
145 9% 63%  
146 19% 54%  
147 8% 35%  
148 16% 27% Median
149 5% 11%  
150 2% 6%  
151 3% 4%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.3% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.6%  
121 1.2% 99.2%  
122 3% 98%  
123 2% 95%  
124 2% 93%  
125 2% 92%  
126 6% 90%  
127 6% 83%  
128 17% 77%  
129 22% 60%  
130 10% 38%  
131 15% 27% Median
132 5% 13%  
133 3% 8%  
134 4% 6%  
135 0.8% 1.4%  
136 0.4% 0.6%  
137 0.2% 0.2%  
138 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.4% 99.8%  
93 0.8% 99.4%  
94 1.0% 98.6%  
95 1.0% 98%  
96 5% 97%  
97 3% 92%  
98 6% 88%  
99 4% 82%  
100 23% 78%  
101 8% 55% Majority
102 12% 47%  
103 11% 35% Median
104 7% 23%  
105 7% 16%  
106 3% 9%  
107 4% 6%  
108 1.5% 2%  
109 0.6% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.5% 99.6%  
93 1.3% 99.1%  
94 1.4% 98%  
95 4% 96%  
96 3% 92%  
97 7% 89%  
98 11% 82%  
99 15% 72% Median
100 15% 56%  
101 8% 41% Majority
102 7% 33%  
103 8% 26%  
104 5% 18%  
105 4% 13%  
106 3% 8%  
107 3% 5%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.6% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 2% 99.2%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 9% 94%  
80 4% 85%  
81 7% 81%  
82 10% 73%  
83 18% 64% Median
84 9% 45%  
85 17% 37%  
86 6% 19% Last Result
87 6% 13%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.4% 1.2%  
92 0.5% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations