Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 19 March–12 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.4% 20.4–22.5% 20.1–22.8% 19.8–23.1% 19.3–23.6%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.6% 19.6–21.7% 19.3–22.0% 19.0–22.3% 18.5–22.8%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.7% 14.8–16.7% 14.5–17.0% 14.3–17.2% 13.9–17.7%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.0% 13.1–15.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.9% 8.2–9.7% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.1% 7.4–8.9% 7.3–9.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.2–5.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.5% 3.1–4.0% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 45–50 45–51 43–52 42–53
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 45 41–48 40–49 40–49 38–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–38 34–39 34–40 32–42
Vihreä liitto 15 28 25–30 25–31 24–31 23–31
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–19 15–20 14–20 13–21
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–16 12–17 12–18 12–20
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 2–6 2–6 2–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 1.4% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 8% 95%  
46 10% 87%  
47 33% 77% Median
48 23% 44%  
49 7% 20%  
50 4% 14%  
51 5% 9%  
52 4% 5%  
53 0.5% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100% Last Result
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 1.4% 99.1%  
40 4% 98%  
41 6% 94%  
42 12% 88%  
43 10% 76%  
44 8% 66%  
45 15% 58% Median
46 9% 44%  
47 8% 35%  
48 19% 27%  
49 7% 8%  
50 0.7% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.7%  
33 1.3% 99.4%  
34 36% 98%  
35 28% 63% Median
36 12% 35%  
37 8% 23%  
38 6% 16%  
39 6% 10%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.4% 100%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 3% 98%  
25 19% 95%  
26 11% 77%  
27 10% 65%  
28 32% 55% Median
29 7% 23%  
30 10% 17%  
31 7% 7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100% Last Result
13 1.5% 99.8%  
14 3% 98%  
15 2% 95%  
16 17% 93%  
17 60% 76% Median
18 6% 16%  
19 4% 10%  
20 5% 6%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.7%  
12 12% 99.6%  
13 12% 88%  
14 44% 76% Median
15 16% 32%  
16 9% 16%  
17 3% 7%  
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 28% 96%  
8 48% 68% Median
9 10% 20% Last Result
10 8% 10%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 2% 99.4%  
2 11% 98%  
3 18% 87%  
4 8% 69%  
5 19% 61% Last Result, Median
6 41% 41%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 150 100% 146–151 145–152 144–152 142–154
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 133 100% 129–135 128–135 127–136 126–138
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 106 93% 101–108 100–109 99–109 98–111
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 95 1.1% 91–98 90–99 89–100 87–102
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 81 0% 77–84 76–85 76–85 73–87

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.2% 100%  
142 0.3% 99.8%  
143 0.9% 99.5%  
144 2% 98.6%  
145 5% 97%  
146 8% 92%  
147 6% 84%  
148 9% 78%  
149 12% 69%  
150 19% 57% Median
151 29% 38%  
152 7% 9%  
153 2% 2%  
154 0.4% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.3% 99.8%  
126 1.1% 99.5%  
127 2% 98%  
128 2% 97%  
129 8% 94%  
130 8% 86%  
131 12% 78%  
132 12% 66%  
133 19% 54% Median
134 21% 35%  
135 11% 14%  
136 1.4% 3%  
137 1.0% 2%  
138 0.4% 0.6%  
139 0.2% 0.2%  
140 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.7% 99.8%  
99 2% 99.1%  
100 3% 97%  
101 9% 93% Majority
102 5% 84%  
103 11% 80%  
104 9% 69%  
105 8% 60% Median
106 21% 52%  
107 14% 30%  
108 8% 17%  
109 7% 9%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.8%  
112 0.3% 0.3%  
113 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.9% 99.4%  
89 2% 98.5%  
90 2% 97%  
91 7% 95%  
92 7% 87%  
93 18% 81%  
94 8% 63% Median
95 12% 55%  
96 20% 43%  
97 8% 23%  
98 8% 15%  
99 4% 7%  
100 3% 4%  
101 0.5% 1.1% Majority
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.3% 100%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.1%  
75 1.0% 98.6%  
76 7% 98%  
77 10% 90%  
78 8% 81%  
79 13% 73%  
80 8% 60% Median
81 8% 51%  
82 18% 44%  
83 12% 26%  
84 9% 14%  
85 3% 5%  
86 2% 2% Last Result
87 0.6% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations