Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 3–26 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.2% 19.0–21.6% 18.6–21.9% 18.3–22.3% 17.7–22.9%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.0% 18.8–21.4% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.1% 17.6–22.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.0% 15.9–18.3% 15.5–18.6% 15.3–19.0% 14.7–19.6%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.9% 13.8–16.1% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.8% 12.7–17.3%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.1% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.8–10.6% 7.4–11.1%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.5% 7.7–9.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.2–10.0% 6.8–10.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 3.7% 3.1–4.4% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.6–5.1%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 43 40–48 39–48 38–49 37–51
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 45 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 38 35–43 35–44 35–45 34–46
Vihreä liitto 15 30 27–31 26–32 25–32 24–34
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–19 15–20 13–20 12–22
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 14–18 13–20 12–21 11–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 7 6–8 5–8 4–9 4–10
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 4 1–6 1–6 0–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 2% 99.9% Last Result
38 3% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 14% 92%  
41 12% 78%  
42 7% 66%  
43 21% 59% Median
44 11% 38%  
45 3% 27%  
46 5% 24%  
47 7% 19%  
48 8% 12%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 100%  
38 2% 99.8%  
39 2% 98%  
40 2% 96%  
41 6% 94%  
42 3% 88%  
43 10% 85%  
44 11% 75%  
45 20% 64% Median
46 13% 44%  
47 22% 31%  
48 5% 9%  
49 2% 4%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 2% 99.8%  
35 9% 98%  
36 10% 89%  
37 17% 79%  
38 24% 62% Median
39 8% 38%  
40 4% 30%  
41 5% 26%  
42 5% 22%  
43 9% 17%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.9%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.9% 99.6%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 5% 96%  
27 11% 90%  
28 19% 80%  
29 8% 61%  
30 9% 53% Median
31 37% 44%  
32 5% 7%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.3% 100% Last Result
13 2% 98.6%  
14 2% 97%  
15 3% 95%  
16 27% 93%  
17 31% 65% Median
18 22% 35%  
19 7% 13%  
20 3% 6%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 1.1% 1.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.6%  
12 3% 99.2%  
13 4% 96%  
14 53% 92% Median
15 8% 38%  
16 11% 30%  
17 6% 19%  
18 4% 13%  
19 4% 9%  
20 1.4% 6%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 4% 96%  
6 19% 92%  
7 44% 73% Median
8 24% 29%  
9 2% 5% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 9% 96%  
2 22% 88%  
3 9% 66%  
4 9% 57% Median
5 22% 47% Last Result
6 25% 25%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 146 100% 140–148 139–149 138–150 137–152
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 129 100% 124–131 123–132 122–133 120–135
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 99 30% 94–101 93–103 92–105 89–107
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 96 14% 93–101 92–103 91–105 89–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 99 26% 94–102 92–103 91–104 89–105
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 93 1.3% 88–97 87–98 86–100 84–102
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 91 0.1% 87–95 85–96 84–97 82–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 81 0% 78–86 77–88 76–89 75–91

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.3% 99.9%  
137 0.8% 99.6%  
138 1.3% 98.7%  
139 3% 97%  
140 6% 95%  
141 4% 88%  
142 9% 84%  
143 6% 75%  
144 5% 69%  
145 6% 64%  
146 10% 59% Median
147 25% 49%  
148 15% 24%  
149 6% 9%  
150 1.2% 3%  
151 1.2% 2%  
152 0.4% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.2% 99.9%  
120 0.6% 99.7%  
121 1.0% 99.1%  
122 2% 98%  
123 4% 96%  
124 8% 93%  
125 5% 84%  
126 8% 79%  
127 9% 71%  
128 7% 62%  
129 18% 54% Median
130 13% 36%  
131 14% 24%  
132 7% 10%  
133 0.9% 3%  
134 1.1% 2%  
135 0.4% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.2% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.2% 100%  
89 0.5% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.3%  
91 0.8% 98.9%  
92 2% 98%  
93 4% 96%  
94 2% 92%  
95 4% 90%  
96 6% 86%  
97 7% 80%  
98 10% 73%  
99 15% 63% Median
100 18% 48%  
101 21% 30% Majority
102 3% 9%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.4% 4%  
105 1.0% 3%  
106 0.7% 2%  
107 0.8% 1.0%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.5% 99.8%  
90 0.5% 99.3%  
91 2% 98.8%  
92 3% 97%  
93 10% 94%  
94 5% 84%  
95 25% 79% Median
96 7% 54%  
97 4% 48%  
98 9% 44%  
99 9% 35%  
100 12% 26%  
101 5% 14% Majority
102 3% 9%  
103 2% 6%  
104 0.9% 4%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.9% 1.3%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 1.0% 99.3%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96%  
93 2% 93%  
94 6% 91%  
95 5% 84%  
96 7% 79%  
97 10% 72%  
98 8% 62%  
99 14% 54% Median
100 13% 40%  
101 5% 26% Majority
102 13% 21%  
103 5% 8%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.5% 1.0%  
106 0.3% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.3% 100%  
84 1.2% 99.7%  
85 0.5% 98%  
86 3% 98%  
87 2% 95%  
88 4% 93%  
89 6% 88%  
90 15% 82%  
91 6% 67%  
92 7% 62% Median
93 13% 55%  
94 12% 42%  
95 7% 29%  
96 11% 23%  
97 3% 12%  
98 4% 8%  
99 1.3% 4%  
100 2% 3% Last Result
101 0.5% 1.3% Majority
102 0.4% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.4%  
84 2% 98.9%  
85 4% 97%  
86 2% 94%  
87 6% 92%  
88 4% 86%  
89 8% 81%  
90 12% 73%  
91 14% 61%  
92 10% 46% Median
93 7% 36%  
94 9% 30%  
95 13% 21%  
96 4% 8%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.1% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1% Majority
102 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 1.1% 99.5%  
76 3% 98%  
77 4% 95%  
78 7% 91%  
79 11% 85%  
80 8% 73%  
81 22% 66% Median
82 4% 44%  
83 6% 40%  
84 9% 34%  
85 8% 24%  
86 8% 17% Last Result
87 3% 8%  
88 1.3% 5%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations